Defence organizations are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence (AI) for achieving tactical and strategic advantages over their adversaries. The growing sophistication of AI technologies has accelerated their adoption for a number of tasks and functions, allowing different stakeholders to plan and accommodate their respective military operations.
Reading of the Week: Artificial Intelligence, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament: A Compendium on the State of the Art
Cluster for Natural and Technical Science Arms Control Research
Week 4, February 2025
AFRICA
Africa
Solar Power And Environmental Peacebuilding In South-Central Somalia
Energy security Horn of Africa [ © Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ]
In Somalia, widespread energy poverty and a heavy reliance on conventional energy sources are deeply linked to ongoing conflict dynamics. Dependence on firewood and charcoal worsens environmental degradation and intensifies competition over natural resources
Africa
Africas Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook
Economy Governance [ © African Development Bank Group ]
Countries across the world are struggling to navigate a difficult global economic land-scape characterized by persistent disruptions— from structural macroeconomic weaknesses, geo-political tensions, the increasing effects of climate change, health pandemics, and trade and tech-nology wars
Africa
African Migration Trends to Watch in 2025
Migration Organised Crime Humanitarian Aid [ © Africa Center for Strategic Studies ]
A sharp restriction in off-continental irregular migration combined with escalating push factors will continue to shape governance and security priorities in Africa and underscore the need for more regional innovation to accommodate intracontinental population movements.
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Behavioural science and sustainable consumer protection: strategic insights for the Arab region
Society Economy [ © Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia ]
This report highlights the urgent necessity for Arab region-specific policy solutions which take cultural and financial constraints into consideration. The report discussing case studies and data-driven perspectives that illustrate the region’s accomplishments as well as the deficiencies that still exist in sustainable consumption and consumer protection
Middle East
Rebuilding Gaza will not be easy, but we must try
Economy infrastructure [ © Middle East Institute ]
The jubilation on the streets of Tel Aviv and Ramallah suggests that there is considerable support for continued calm among Israelis and Palestinians. Yet much depends on upcoming negotiations regarding the next phases of the cease-fire agreement
Middle East
Youth and Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa
Climate change Youth [ © Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ]
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), young people (defined as fifteen to twenty-four years old) are going to bear the brunt of the climate crisis. Yet, despite representing a disproportionately large percentage of the region’s population, youth are rarely consulted in policy decisions, including around climate adaptation and mitigation
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Reading of the Week: Artificial Intelligence, Non-Proliferation and Disarmament: A Compendium on the State of the Art
Artificial intelligence Proliferation of weapons New Technology [ © Cluster for Natural and Technical Science Arms Control Research ]
Defence organizations are increasingly turning to artificial intelligence (AI) for achieving tactical and strategic advantages over their adversaries. The growing sophistication of AI technologies has accelerated their adoption for a number of tasks and functions, allowing different stakeholders to plan and accommodate their respective military operations.
Transnational
Shifting alliances in West Africa: Measuring Russian engagement to support counter-FIMI strategies
Russia West-Africa Economy [ © European Union Institute for Security Studies ]
This Brief seeks to address the lack of systematic, comparable data on Russia’s engagement in West Africa. Such data is crucial for assessing the threat posed by Russian-sponsored FIMI, which often serves as a tool to advance broader strategic objectives in regions where Russia seeks to expand its influence
Transnational
Ecological Thereat Report COP29 Edition
Environment Society Africa [ © Institute for Economics & Peace ]
The Ecological Threat Report 2024 identifies 50 countries, home to 1.3 billion people, facing severe ecological threats. These challenges, ranging from water scarcity to food insecurity, are not merely environmental concerns – they are multipliers of social tension and catalysts for conflict. However, amidst these sobering findings, we have identified clear, actionable solutions.
This Brief seeks to address the lack of systematic, comparable data on Russia’s engagement in West Africa. Such data is crucial for assessing the threat posed by Russian-sponsored FIMI, which often serves as a tool to advance broader strategic objectives in regions where Russia seeks to expand its influence
Shifting alliances in West Africa: Measuring Russian engagement to support counter-FIMI strategies
European Union Institute for Security Studies
The Ecological Threat Report 2024 identifies 50 countries, home to 1.3 billion people, facing severe ecological threats. These challenges, ranging from water scarcity to food insecurity, are not merely environmental concerns – they are multipliers of social tension and catalysts for conflict. However, amidst these sobering findings, we have identified clear, actionable solutions.
Ecological Thereat Report COP29 Edition
Institute for Economics & Peace
This report highlights the urgent necessity for Arab region-specific policy solutions which take cultural and financial constraints into consideration. The report discussing case studies and data-driven perspectives that illustrate the region’s accomplishments as well as the deficiencies that still exist in sustainable consumption and consumer protection
Behavioural science and sustainable consumer protection: strategic insights for the Arab region
Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
The jubilation on the streets of Tel Aviv and Ramallah suggests that there is considerable support for continued calm among Israelis and Palestinians. Yet much depends on upcoming negotiations regarding the next phases of the cease-fire agreement
Rebuilding Gaza will not be easy, but we must try
Middle East Institute
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA), young people (defined as fifteen to twenty-four years old) are going to bear the brunt of the climate crisis. Yet, despite representing a disproportionately large percentage of the region’s population, youth are rarely consulted in policy decisions, including around climate adaptation and mitigation
Youth and Climate Change in the Middle East and North Africa
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In Somalia, widespread energy poverty and a heavy reliance on conventional energy sources are deeply linked to ongoing conflict dynamics. Dependence on firewood and charcoal worsens environmental degradation and intensifies competition over natural resources
Solar Power And Environmental Peacebuilding In South-Central Somalia
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Countries across the world are struggling to navigate a difficult global economic land-scape characterized by persistent disruptions— from structural macroeconomic weaknesses, geo-political tensions, the increasing effects of climate change, health pandemics, and trade and tech-nology wars
Africas Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook
African Development Bank Group
A sharp restriction in off-continental irregular migration combined with escalating push factors will continue to shape governance and security priorities in Africa and underscore the need for more regional innovation to accommodate intracontinental population movements.
African Migration Trends to Watch in 2025
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
The 25th anniversary of UN Resolution 1325 calls for a reflection on the implementation of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda and on strategies to enhance women’s participation in all phases of peace processes. Despite the historic breakthrough achieved with this Resolution, the involvement of women in conflict prevention and mediation remains limited.
How Technology Can Empower Women Peace Mediators
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Week 3, February 2025
AFRICA
Africa
Reading of the Week: Accessing Africas critical raw materials
Africa Natural resources Economy [ © Geopolitical Intelligence Services ]
Critical minerals like cobalt, lithium and copper are vital for the global economy and the defense industry. Recognizing their importance, major and middle powers are striving to secure reliable access for themselves. China in particular has grown its influence in these markets, controlling a significant portion of the world’s mining operations and refining capacities.
Africa
The future of African youth and women in entrepreneurship: Leading Africa to 2030
Africa Youth Gender [ © The Brookings Institution ]
As we approach 2030, Africa’s young population stands at the forefront of economic transformation. Youth and women entrepreneurs have had a profound impact on their communities and the continent at large. Their energy, resilience, and creativity are not just changing the landscape of business in Africa-they are driving the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Africa
Decade of destitution? Severe lived poverty is surging in many African countries
Africa Society Economy [ © Afro Barometer ]
The share of humanity who live in conditions of poverty has been falling since at least 1980. Measured as the proportion of people who live on less than $2.15 a day, the figure has declined from above 40% to below 10% – or from 2 billion to fewer than 750 million in absolute terms (Hasell, 2022; Carbone & Ragazzi, 2023; Roser, 2024).
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
The green energy transition: employment pathways for MENA
MENA Renewable Energy Economy [ © Economic Research Forum ]
The potential employment impacts of green and renewable energy in the Middle East and North Africa are multifaceted and promising. As this column explains, embracing renewable energy technologies presents an opportunity for the region to diversify its economy, mitigate the possible negative impacts of digitalization on existing jobs, reduce its carbon footprint and create significant levels of employment across a variety of sectors.
Middle East
How Hezbollah Ends
Hezbollah Lebanon [ © Foreign Affairs ]
For Hezbollah, these are trying times. After decades of being Lebanon’s predominant political and military organization, the group is reeling. During a yearlong war with Israel, it lost much of its military infrastructure. Its leadership ranks were decimated.
Middle East
Approaching the precipe: Near-term prospects of Irans economy
Iran Economy [ © Clingendael ]
The Iranian economy is presently in crisis, which is reflected in a few basic indicators such as the inflation, economic growth and exchange rates. Official annual inflation has been above 30% since 2018, which has pushed a large segment of the middle class into poverty by undermining their purchasing power.
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
How Technology Can Empower Women Peace Mediators
WPS New Technology [ © Istituto Affari Internazionali ]
The 25th anniversary of UN Resolution 1325 calls for a reflection on the implementation of the Women, Peace and Security (WPS) agenda and on strategies to enhance women’s participation in all phases of peace processes. Despite the historic breakthrough achieved with this Resolution, the involvement of women in conflict prevention and mediation remains limited.
Transnational
With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility: How to Make Big Tech Accountable for its Global Influence
Cybersecurity New Technology Bilateral Cooperation [ © War on the Rocks ]
“Big Tech” - or large multinational corporations that manufacture, own, and operate the digital ecosystems and physical infrastructure constituting cyberspace - wield state-like influence, advancing their interests with a reach that rivals powerful state actors.
“Big Tech” - or large multinational corporations that manufacture, own, and operate the digital ecosystems and physical infrastructure constituting cyberspace - wield state-like influence, advancing their interests with a reach that rivals powerful state actors.
With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility: How to Make Big Tech Accountable for its Global Influence
War on the Rocks
The potential employment impacts of green and renewable energy in the Middle East and North Africa are multifaceted and promising. As this column explains, embracing renewable energy technologies presents an opportunity for the region to diversify its economy, mitigate the possible negative impacts of digitalization on existing jobs, reduce its carbon footprint and create significant levels of employment across a variety of sectors.
The green energy transition: employment pathways for MENA
Economic Research Forum
For Hezbollah, these are trying times. After decades of being Lebanon’s predominant political and military organization, the group is reeling. During a yearlong war with Israel, it lost much of its military infrastructure. Its leadership ranks were decimated.
How Hezbollah Ends
Foreign Affairs
The Iranian economy is presently in crisis, which is reflected in a few basic indicators such as the inflation, economic growth and exchange rates. Official annual inflation has been above 30% since 2018, which has pushed a large segment of the middle class into poverty by undermining their purchasing power.
Approaching the precipe: Near-term prospects of Irans economy
Clingendael
Critical minerals like cobalt, lithium and copper are vital for the global economy and the defense industry. Recognizing their importance, major and middle powers are striving to secure reliable access for themselves. China in particular has grown its influence in these markets, controlling a significant portion of the world’s mining operations and refining capacities.
Reading of the Week: Accessing Africas critical raw materials
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
As we approach 2030, Africa’s young population stands at the forefront of economic transformation. Youth and women entrepreneurs have had a profound impact on their communities and the continent at large. Their energy, resilience, and creativity are not just changing the landscape of business in Africa-they are driving the realization of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
The future of African youth and women in entrepreneurship: Leading Africa to 2030
The Brookings Institution
The share of humanity who live in conditions of poverty has been falling since at least 1980. Measured as the proportion of people who live on less than $2.15 a day, the figure has declined from above 40% to below 10% – or from 2 billion to fewer than 750 million in absolute terms (Hasell, 2022; Carbone & Ragazzi, 2023; Roser, 2024).
Decade of destitution? Severe lived poverty is surging in many African countries
Afro Barometer
The 25th anniversary of the Security Council’s first consideration of the ‘Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict’ and adoption of its first thematic resolution on the issue coincided with the 75th anniversary of the Geneva Conventions. Rather than standing as a moment to herald the achievements associated with these milestones, these anniversaries coincided with a “resoundingly grim” state of protection of civilians.
Reading of the Week: Protection of Civilians in the Context of Peace Operations
Stimson
Week 2, February 2025
AFRICA
Africa
South Africa takes G20 presidency amid rising global tensions
Economy Policy [ © Geopolitical Intelligence Services ]
South Africa took on the presidency of the G20 on December 1, 2024, placing the country at the center of this group of the world’s leading economies. While the G20 aims to promote global economic cooperation and development, skepticism about the effectiveness of its initiatives remains
Africa
Fall of DRCs Goma: Urgent Action Needed to Avert a Regional War
Sahel Crisis management Humanitarian Aid [ © International Crisis Group ]
The fall of eastern Congo’s biggest city has sent thousands from their homes and – once again – left the Great Lakes on the edge of a wider war. African mediators with the concerted backing of external partners should move with speed to prevent more fighting
Africa
The Economic Impacts of Flooding in Egyptian Port Cities
Economy infrastructure [ © Policy Center for the New South ]
This study evaluates the economic costs for three Egyptian coastal cities of catastrophic flooding resulting from either sea-level rise or intense rainfall. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework, we assess the higher-order impacts of physical capital loss on both regional and national economies
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Syrias post-Assad honeymoon is over. Now the hard work of state-building begins
Syria Crisis management Peace and Security [ © Atlantic Council ]
The fall of the Assad regime was met with relief and hope by Syrians of all backgrounds, including even some former loyalists disillusioned with Assad’s inability to address Syria’s worsening crises. However, Syrians are now faced with a new government whose leadership remains largely unfamiliar
Middle East
The way forward in Lebanon
Lebanon Policy [ © Middle East Institute ]
The election of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is a political breakthrough in Lebanon and a harbinger of what could happen in a country long dismissed as unsalvageable. Beirut’s new leadership reflects the aspiration of a majority of the Lebanese people to live in a functioning state free from the dual drivers of its failure: political violence and pervasive corruption
Middle East
Distortionary Effects of Kuwaits Cheap Electricity
Energy security Economy Gulf Region [ © Baker Institute for Public Policy ]
This research paper finds that rationalizing electricity prices and recasting the subsidy as a cash benefit would not only improve the welfare of Kuwaiti consumers but also reduce electricity demand and emissions by promoting efficient consumption
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Reading of the Week: Protection of Civilians in the Context of Peace Operations
Human Rights Peace and Security Cooperative security [ © Stimson ]
The 25th anniversary of the Security Council’s first consideration of the ‘Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict’ and adoption of its first thematic resolution on the issue coincided with the 75th anniversary of the Geneva Conventions. Rather than standing as a moment to herald the achievements associated with these milestones, these anniversaries coincided with a “resoundingly grim” state of protection of civilians.
Transnational
Roots of Resilience: Building Peace in an Era of Food and Climate Shocks
Climate change Peace and Security [ © Istituto Affari Internazionali and the Center for Climate and Security ]
In the context of the 2025 Munich Security Conference (MSC), it is critical that leaders, understandably consumed with state-centric geopolitical disruptions, pay close attention to transnational and systemic risks – one of the most significant of which is the food-climate conflict nexus.
Transnational
Gender-sensitive macroeconomic policies in low- and middle-income economies
Gender Economy [ © ODI Global ]
This paper examines the gender-differentiated economic impacts stemming from the Russia–Ukraine war (RUW) on some of Africa’s economies, and potential macroeconomic policy objectives that may mitigate them.
In the context of the 2025 Munich Security Conference (MSC), it is critical that leaders, understandably consumed with state-centric geopolitical disruptions, pay close attention to transnational and systemic risks – one of the most significant of which is the food-climate conflict nexus.
Roots of Resilience: Building Peace in an Era of Food and Climate Shocks
Istituto Affari Internazionali and the Center for Climate and Security
This paper examines the gender-differentiated economic impacts stemming from the Russia–Ukraine war (RUW) on some of Africa’s economies, and potential macroeconomic policy objectives that may mitigate them.
Gender-sensitive macroeconomic policies in low- and middle-income economies
ODI Global
The fall of the Assad regime was met with relief and hope by Syrians of all backgrounds, including even some former loyalists disillusioned with Assad’s inability to address Syria’s worsening crises. However, Syrians are now faced with a new government whose leadership remains largely unfamiliar
Syrias post-Assad honeymoon is over. Now the hard work of state-building begins
Atlantic Council
The election of President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam is a political breakthrough in Lebanon and a harbinger of what could happen in a country long dismissed as unsalvageable. Beirut’s new leadership reflects the aspiration of a majority of the Lebanese people to live in a functioning state free from the dual drivers of its failure: political violence and pervasive corruption
The way forward in Lebanon
Middle East Institute
This research paper finds that rationalizing electricity prices and recasting the subsidy as a cash benefit would not only improve the welfare of Kuwaiti consumers but also reduce electricity demand and emissions by promoting efficient consumption
Distortionary Effects of Kuwaits Cheap Electricity
Baker Institute for Public Policy
South Africa took on the presidency of the G20 on December 1, 2024, placing the country at the center of this group of the world’s leading economies. While the G20 aims to promote global economic cooperation and development, skepticism about the effectiveness of its initiatives remains
South Africa takes G20 presidency amid rising global tensions
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
The fall of eastern Congo’s biggest city has sent thousands from their homes and – once again – left the Great Lakes on the edge of a wider war. African mediators with the concerted backing of external partners should move with speed to prevent more fighting
Fall of DRCs Goma: Urgent Action Needed to Avert a Regional War
International Crisis Group
This study evaluates the economic costs for three Egyptian coastal cities of catastrophic flooding resulting from either sea-level rise or intense rainfall. Using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework, we assess the higher-order impacts of physical capital loss on both regional and national economies
The Economic Impacts of Flooding in Egyptian Port Cities
Policy Center for the New South
Qatar is a high-income, resource-rich country, with an economy based around the exploitation of its vast fossil fuel reserves, particularly natural gas. As a result of the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other fossil fuel-intensive industries that started in the 1990s, Qatar’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew from $18bn to $236bn (in 2024 USD) between the years 2000 and 2022.
Pathways to Decarbonization and Economic Diversification in Qatar
Middle East Council on Global Affairs
Week 5, January 2025
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Pathways to Decarbonization and Economic Diversification in Qatar
Arabian Peninsula Climate change Economy [ © Middle East Council on Global Affairs ]
Qatar is a high-income, resource-rich country, with an economy based around the exploitation of its vast fossil fuel reserves, particularly natural gas. As a result of the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other fossil fuel-intensive industries that started in the 1990s, Qatar’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew from $18bn to $236bn (in 2024 USD) between the years 2000 and 2022.
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Reading of the Week: Great Power Competition and Green Protectionism
China Economy Bilateral Cooperation [ © Stimson Center ]
Great power competition between the United States and China has translated into a trade war featuring, among other issues, green protectionist policies. In the United States, this strategy is used to boost the country’s emerging green industries while reducing U.S. reliance on Chinese imports and containing China’s rise. Green protectionism is reshaping global trade dynamics and often harms Global South countries.
Great power competition between the United States and China has translated into a trade war featuring, among other issues, green protectionist policies. In the United States, this strategy is used to boost the country’s emerging green industries while reducing U.S. reliance on Chinese imports and containing China’s rise. Green protectionism is reshaping global trade dynamics and often harms Global South countries.
Reading of the Week: Great Power Competition and Green Protectionism
Stimson Center
China has aligned its cooperation model with Saudi Arabia’s own priorities, most notably since the kingdom unveiled its Vision 2030. Although China announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, the big push in relations happened only after the ascendance of King Salman to the throne in 2015 and Riyadh’s push for Beijing to meet Saudi needs.
How China Aligned Itself with Saudi Arabias Vision 2030
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Week 5, January 2025
AFRICA
Africa
Technology for Better Governance: Insights from Public Health Systems in Kenya
Africa Governance New Technology [ © Observer Research Foundation ]
The integration of technology in governance has created transformative possibilities across the world, enhancing the provision of public services. Africa has also benefitted from this wave of digital …
Africa
What makes an MDB an MDB?
Africa Economy [ © Overseas Development Institute ]
The next three sections of this paper examine the situation surrounding the ongoing sovereign debt restructurings involving Afreximbank and TDB. The subsequent two sections assess the broader evolutio…
Africa
New Mechanism for Mitigating Currency Risk to Support Africas Energy Transition
Africa Renewable Energy [ © African Development Bank Group ]
Africa is at the heart of the green energy transition, as reserves of many of the critical minerals required to power the clean energy transition are located on the continent. This gives Africa a key …
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Despite the Houthi Pledge to Limit Attacks, the Red Sea Remains Highly Volatile
Red Sea Water security [ © The Washington Institute for Near East Policy ]
The Houthis have shown little willingness or ability to accurately distinguish between the ships they target, leaving Washington and its partners with no choice but to doubt the group’s supposed “ceas…
Middle East
Accelerating the Progress of Jordan Towards the Sustainable Development Goals
Arabian Peninsula Economy [ © Economic Research Forum ]
This report explores Jordan’s progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the context of current economic, social, and structural challenges and their projected course until 2030. Sinc…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
How China Aligned Itself with Saudi Arabias Vision 2030
China Arabian Peninsula [ © Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ]
China has aligned its cooperation model with Saudi Arabia’s own priorities, most notably since the kingdom unveiled its Vision 2030. Although China announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, the …
Transnational
Tehrans proxies are on the back foot. An Iran-Russia defense pact could revive them
Russia Iran Cooperative security [ © Breaking Defense ]
The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024 has led many to focus on Russia, and its inability or unwillingness to prioritize Syria due to the conflict in Ukraine. But focusin…
The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024 has led many to focus on Russia, and its inability or unwillingness to prioritize Syria due to the conflict in Ukraine. But focusing too much on Russia understates the role that Iran, and more specifically Tehran’s proxies, played in propping up Assad.
Tehrans proxies are on the back foot. An Iran-Russia defense pact could revive them
Breaking Defense
The Houthis have shown little willingness or ability to accurately distinguish between the ships they target, leaving Washington and its partners with no choice but to doubt the group’s supposed “ceasefire” and keep up the pressure.
Despite the Houthi Pledge to Limit Attacks, the Red Sea Remains Highly Volatile
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
This report explores Jordan’s progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the context of current economic, social, and structural challenges and their projected course until 2030. Since the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, Jordan has faced significant constraints, including its limited natural resources, high debt burden, water scarcity, and external shocks such as the Syrian refugee crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Accelerating the Progress of Jordan Towards the Sustainable Development Goals
Economic Research Forum
The integration of technology in governance has created transformative possibilities across the world, enhancing the provision of public services. Africa has also benefitted from this wave of digital transformation. Introducing big data applications into governance systems in Africa presents enormous potential for overcoming challenges, including corruption, inefficiency, and poor service delivery.
Technology for Better Governance: Insights from Public Health Systems in Kenya
Observer Research Foundation
The next three sections of this paper examine the situation surrounding the ongoing sovereign debt restructurings involving Afreximbank and TDB. The subsequent two sections assess the broader evolution of Southern-led MDBs and the policy framework guiding how the IMF evaluates them, followed by conclusions and policy considerations.
What makes an MDB an MDB?
Overseas Development Institute
Africa is at the heart of the green energy transition, as reserves of many of the critical minerals required to power the clean energy transition are located on the continent. This gives Africa a key opportunity to leverage the global demand for those minerals while reducing the funding gap and helping the continent meet its development objectives.
New Mechanism for Mitigating Currency Risk to Support Africas Energy Transition
African Development Bank Group
Africa’s growth prospects are stagnating and have declined in recent years, as evidenced by slow GDP growth rates and limited improvements in human development indices. This downward trend is reflected in the revised and updated analysis of our Current Path forecast on the African Futures website published in December 2024.
Africas growth prospects stagnant and under pressure
ISS African Futures
Week 4, January 2025
AFRICA
Africa
Africas growth prospects stagnant and under pressure
Economy Society [ © ISS African Futures ]
Africa’s growth prospects are stagnating and have declined in recent years, as evidenced by slow GDP growth rates and limited improvements in human development indices. This downward trend is reflecte…
Africa
The WTOs Trade Policy Review Mechanism: Lessons for the AfCFTA Review Process
Trade Economy [ © South African Institute of International Affairs ]
The decision by the AfCFTA Secretariat to establish the AfCFTA Implementation Review Mechanism (AFIRM) was mainly prompted by concerns relating to states parties’ slow implementation of the AfCFTA Agr…
Africa
Regimes in the Maghreb take a hard look at nuclear energy
Renewable Energy Policy [ © Geopolitical Intelligence Services ]
The Maghreb has high potential for solar and wind energy production, which could position the region as a key player in renewable energy, yet countries in the region are not pursuing a significant rol…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Reading of the Week: Israel, Hamas Reach Gaza Cease-fire Deal: What Happens Now?
Israel Peace and Security [ © United States Institute of Peace ]
On January 15, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani announced that a cease-fire agreement — mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States — had been reached between Hamas an…
Middle East
Lebanons New Prime Minister Approaches the Next Crossroads on Hezbollah
Lebanon Hezbollah [ © The Washington Institute for Near East Policy ]
Salam has promised to enforce accountability and implement the ceasefire with Israel; independent Shia cabinet ministers can help him reach those goals while showing there is an alternative to Hezboll…
Middle East
MENAs transition to renewable energy: a new development strategy
MENA Renewable Energy [ © Economic Research Forum ]
How can countries in the Middle East and North Africa capitalise on the transition to renewable energy to foster a sustainable, productive and inclusive economy? This column, which draws on the develo…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Chief Economists Outlook
Policy Economy [ © World Economic Forum ]
The January 2025 Chief Economists Outlook explores key trends in the global economy, including the latest outlook for growth, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy. It discusses the impact of US polic…
Transnational
Could the Fall of Assad and the Return of Trump Lead to a Better Deal with Iran?
Iran Governance Syria [ © War on the Rocks ]
As Donald Trump prepares to take office again, a unique opportunity to influence Iran’s direction arises by renewing the combination of effective pressure and robust negotiations, mainly aimed at a pe…
Transnational
What next for internal displacement: Four priority actions for 2025
Demographics Migration [ © ODI Global ]
In 2024, there were important and positive shifts in the internal displacement policy landscape, as well as cause for concern. Take, for example, the Independent review of the humanitarian response to…
The decision by the AfCFTA Secretariat to establish the AfCFTA Implementation Review Mechanism (AFIRM) was mainly prompted by concerns relating to states parties’ slow implementation of the AfCFTA Agreement under which full trading was expected to commence in January 2021, which has not yet happened.
The WTOs Trade Policy Review Mechanism: Lessons for the AfCFTA Review Process
South African Institute of International Affairs
The January 2025 Chief Economists Outlook explores key trends in the global economy, including the latest outlook for growth, inflation, monetary and fiscal policy. It discusses the impact of US policy on the global economy, investigates fragmentation trends and discusses the turbulent outlook for global trade.
Chief Economists Outlook
World Economic Forum
As Donald Trump prepares to take office again, a unique opportunity to influence Iran’s direction arises by renewing the combination of effective pressure and robust negotiations, mainly aimed at a permanent detailed weaponization ban, while providing Tehran with possible domestic benefits.
Could the Fall of Assad and the Return of Trump Lead to a Better Deal with Iran?
War on the Rocks
In 2024, there were important and positive shifts in the internal displacement policy landscape, as well as cause for concern. Take, for example, the Independent review of the humanitarian response to internal displacement. This was a welcome opportunity for much-needed critical reflection, but it also identified serious shortcomings in the humanitarian and development response
What next for internal displacement: Four priority actions for 2025
ODI Global
On January 15, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani announced that a cease-fire agreement — mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States — had been reached between Hamas and Israel to pause fighting in Gaza and begin a series of steps to end of the war. The agreement details three phases toward immediate humanitarian relief, hostage and prisoner exchange, redeployment of Israeli forces, and negotiations toward a longer-term end-of-hostilities and reconstruction of Gaza.
Reading of the Week: Israel, Hamas Reach Gaza Cease-fire Deal: What Happens Now?
United States Institute of Peace
Salam has promised to enforce accountability and implement the ceasefire with Israel; independent Shia cabinet ministers can help him reach those goals while showing there is an alternative to Hezbollah.
Lebanons New Prime Minister Approaches the Next Crossroads on Hezbollah
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
How can countries in the Middle East and North Africa capitalise on the transition to renewable energy to foster a sustainable, productive and inclusive economy? This column, which draws on the development strategy advice of Oxford economist Paul Collier, calls for a nexus approach to skill development, finance, research and education
MENAs transition to renewable energy: a new development strategy
Economic Research Forum
The Maghreb has high potential for solar and wind energy production, which could position the region as a key player in renewable energy, yet countries in the region are not pursuing a significant rollout of such safe and zero-emission electricity sources. While aware of the economic and climate potential of renewables, Algeria, Morocco, Tunisia and even Libya are instead demonstrating a growing interest in nuclear facilities.
Regimes in the Maghreb take a hard look at nuclear energy
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
Polling data from the Arab Barometer in 2021 reveals that a large majority of citizens—ranging from 89 percent in Tunisia and Lebanon to 61 percent in Morocco—believe that corruption is prevalent in state agencies to a large or medium extent. Fewer believe that governments in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region are effectively combating it, and these numbers are steadily declining in many countries.
Reading of the Week: How Effective Are Arab Anticorruption Agencies? Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?
Middle East Council on Global Affairs
Week 3, January 2025
AFRICA
Africa
Leveraging AI and emerging technologies to unlock Africas potential
Artificial intelligence Emerging Disruptive Technologies (EDT) [ © Brookings Institution ]
This essay examines how emerging technologies can address some of the continent’s most pressing challenges, including economic, environmental, social, and governance issues, and be a game changer for …
Africa
Flooding and Climate Shocks: Their effect on local economies in The Lake Chad Basin
Sahel Climate change [ © Policy Center for the New South ]
The September floods in the LCB disrupted the lives of millions. Extreme precipitation events since August 2024 have impacted over 4.4 million people in West and Central Africa. According to United Na…
Africa
African Union to get a new chair: 6 key tasks they must tackle
Policy Governance [ © The Conversation ]
The African Union (AU) member states will elect a new senior leadership of the AU Commission in February 2025. The commission was originally conceived as the secretariat of the AU. Over the years it h…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Reading of the Week: How Effective Are Arab Anticorruption Agencies? Is the Glass Half Empty or Half Full?
MENA Organised Crime Society [ © Middle East Council on Global Affairs ]
Polling data from the Arab Barometer in 2021 reveals that a large majority of citizens—ranging from 89 percent in Tunisia and Lebanon to 61 percent in Morocco—believe that corruption is prevalent in s…
Middle East
The threat of cybercrime in MENA economies
MENA Economy Cybersecurity [ © Economic Research Forum ]
The MENA region’s increasing access to digital information and internet usage has led to an explosion in e-commerce and widespread interest in cryptocurrencies. At the same time, cybercrime, which inc…
Middle East
Necessity rather than trust: Smuggling dynamics on the Eastern Route through Yemen
Arabian Peninsula Organised Crime [ © Mixed Migration Centre ]
This report focuses on the nature and dynamics of human smuggling along this Eastern Route from the Horn of Africa across the Red Sea between locations of origin in Ethiopia and points of arrival alon…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Fresh Thinking about Peace Operations at the UN
Peace and Security Crisis management [ © International Crisis Group ]
With blue-helmet deployments shrinking, and facing political and financial headwinds, it may seem that the heyday of multilateral peacekeeping is over. But at UN headquarters in New York, the discussi…
Transnational
A possible Saudi Arabia-Israel-United States triangle
Arabian Peninsula Israel Policy [ © Geopolitical Intelligence Services ]
Few relationships will determine the future of security, peace and prosperity in the Middle East more than the cooperation between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the State of Israel and the United State…
Transnational
Shaping the Energy Transition: Gulf-China Collaboration
China Gulf Region [ © Baker Institute for Public Policy ]
The growing influence of Chinese energy firms in the Persian Gulf is part of a deepening trade and geopolitical relationship as China takes a leading role in the energy transitions underway in the Gul…
With blue-helmet deployments shrinking, and facing political and financial headwinds, it may seem that the heyday of multilateral peacekeeping is over. But at UN headquarters in New York, the discussions about the subject are not quite so fatalistic.
Fresh Thinking about Peace Operations at the UN
International Crisis Group
Few relationships will determine the future of security, peace and prosperity in the Middle East more than the cooperation between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the State of Israel and the United States. The reelection of President Donald Trump, who begins his second term on January 20, 2025, will be a dynamic factor in shaping this three-way relationship
A possible Saudi Arabia-Israel-United States triangle
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
The growing influence of Chinese energy firms in the Persian Gulf is part of a deepening trade and geopolitical relationship as China takes a leading role in the energy transitions underway in the Gulf states and the surrounding region. Several joint ventures (JVs) have been formed between Chinese firms and state-linked Gulf entities, mainly in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Shaping the Energy Transition: Gulf-China Collaboration
Baker Institute for Public Policy
The MENA region’s increasing access to digital information and internet usage has led to an explosion in e-commerce and widespread interest in cryptocurrencies. At the same time, cybercrime, which includes hacking, malware, online fraud and harassment, has spread across digital networks.
The threat of cybercrime in MENA economies
Economic Research Forum
This report focuses on the nature and dynamics of human smuggling along this Eastern Route from the Horn of Africa across the Red Sea between locations of origin in Ethiopia and points of arrival along the coast of Lahj Governorate in Yemen. It examines the role of smugglers, the services they offer, the financial aspects of the journey, and how migrants perceive their smugglers.
Necessity rather than trust: Smuggling dynamics on the Eastern Route through Yemen
Mixed Migration Centre
This essay examines how emerging technologies can address some of the continent’s most pressing challenges, including economic, environmental, social, and governance issues, and be a game changer for Africa’s development.
Leveraging AI and emerging technologies to unlock Africas potential
Brookings Institution
The September floods in the LCB disrupted the lives of millions. Extreme precipitation events since August 2024 have impacted over 4.4 million people in West and Central Africa. According to United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), the countries most affected include Chad, with 1.5 million people impacted, Nigeria, with over 1.1 million, Niger, with 710,767, and Cameroon, with 409,710.
Flooding and Climate Shocks: Their effect on local economies in The Lake Chad Basin
Policy Center for the New South
The African Union (AU) member states will elect a new senior leadership of the AU Commission in February 2025. The commission was originally conceived as the secretariat of the AU. Over the years it has become the driving force behind the pan-African project
African Union to get a new chair: 6 key tasks they must tackle
The Conversation
Les perturbations successives des chaînes d’approvisionnement durant la décennie 2010 et les premières années de la décennie 2020 ont incité les décideurs politiques et économiques, notamment aux États-Unis et en Europe, à réfléchir à des moyens pour atténuer les risques associés à une forte dépendance vis-à-vis d’un nombre limité de fournisseurs, en particulier la Chine
Minerais critiques: positionner lAfrique dans la recomposition mondiale
Le Grand Continent
Week 2, January 2025
AFRICA
Africa
Reading of the Week: Guide to Empower Womens Businesses in Transition Contexts in Africa
Gender Economy WPS [ © African Development Bank ]
The Guide to empower women’s businesses in transition contexts in Africa is designed to advise practitioners, national and international development actors, and anyone supporting women’s entrepreneurs…
Africa
Libya Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Stabilizing Growth and Boosting Productivity
Economy North-Africa [ © World Bank ]
Libya’s economic outlook relies heavily on the oil and gas sector, which constitutes a significant portion of its GDP, government revenue, and exports. With oil production expected to average 1.1 mbpd…
Africa
A Statistical Analysis of Migrant Youth Vulnerability in Sudan & Ethiopia
Horn of Africa Migration Youth [ © Mixed Migration Centre ]
This report looks at the factors that impact the vulnerability of youth who are migrants in Sudan and Ethiopia. Sudan and Ethiopia are important migration crossroads in East Africa, and routes through…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Yemen at Risk of Descending into Full-scale Civil War
Gulf of Aden Crisis management Radicalisation [ © International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives ]
Yemen’s 2024 unfolded as a pivotal year for regional power dynamics, with the Houthi armed group cementing its role as both a disruptive force and a significant player on the global stage. This develo…
Middle East
Can Iran Restore Its Missile Mojo?
Iran Proliferation of weapons [ © The Washington Institute ]
The outcome of Iran’s massive April 13 and October 1 strikes on Israel has raised questions about the utility of its missile force and the military strategy built around it. In the April strike, Iran …
Middle East
Saudi Arabias diversified support for a two-state solution
Crisis management Middle East [ © Middle East Institute ]
More than a year has passed since the horrific attacks that took the lives of 1,200 innocent Israeli citizens on Oct. 7, 2023, a devastating day that led to many more devastating days in Gaza, where t…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Minerais critiques: positionner lAfrique dans la recomposition mondiale
Africa Economy Natural resources [ © Le Grand Continent ]
Les perturbations successives des chaînes d’approvisionnement durant la décennie 2010 et les premières années de la décennie 2020 ont incité les décideurs politiques et économiques, notamment aux État…
Transnational
What to know about the Lobito Corridor, and how it may change how minerals move
Economy Natural resources [ © Atlantic Council ]
During his early December visit to Angola, US President Joe Biden pledged an additional $600 million to the Lobito Corridor project—an ambitious, US-backed infrastructure initiative linking the port o…
Transnational
Local Agency Is Shaping Chinas Digital Footprint in the Gulf
China Economy Gulf Region [ © Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ]
Oil-dependent economies in the Gulf are looking to Chinese tech firms to drive technological progress in the region. Contrary to the narrative that Beijing is imposing its “digital model” on Gulf stat…
During his early December visit to Angola, US President Joe Biden pledged an additional $600 million to the Lobito Corridor project—an ambitious, US-backed infrastructure initiative linking the port of Lobito on Angola’s Atlantic coast to Zambia through the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC).
What to know about the Lobito Corridor, and how it may change how minerals move
Atlantic Council
Oil-dependent economies in the Gulf are looking to Chinese tech firms to drive technological progress in the region. Contrary to the narrative that Beijing is imposing its “digital model” on Gulf states, Chinese firms have adapted their strategies to adhere to the local political and regulatory realities in Gulf nations
Local Agency Is Shaping Chinas Digital Footprint in the Gulf
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Les perturbations successives des chaînes d’approvisionnement durant la décennie 2010 et les premières années de la décennie 2020 ont incité les décideurs politiques et économiques, notamment aux États-Unis et en Europe, à réfléchir à des moyens pour atténuer les risques associés à une forte dépendance vis-à-vis d’un nombre limité de fournisseurs, en particulier la Chine
Minerais critiques: positionner lAfrique dans la recomposition mondiale
Le Grand Continent
Yemen’s 2024 unfolded as a pivotal year for regional power dynamics, with the Houthi armed group cementing its role as both a disruptive force and a significant player on the global stage. This development was heavily influenced by actions that began in late 2023
Yemen at Risk of Descending into Full-scale Civil War
International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives
The outcome of Iran’s massive April 13 and October 1 strikes on Israel has raised questions about the utility of its missile force and the military strategy built around it. In the April strike, Iran launched an estimated 110-130 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Can Iran Restore Its Missile Mojo?
The Washington Institute
More than a year has passed since the horrific attacks that took the lives of 1,200 innocent Israeli citizens on Oct. 7, 2023, a devastating day that led to many more devastating days in Gaza, where tens of thousands of innocent people have died and countless more have experienced suffering on an industrial scale
Saudi Arabias diversified support for a two-state solution
Middle East Institute
The Guide to empower women’s businesses in transition contexts in Africa is designed to advise practitioners, national and international development actors, and anyone supporting women’s entrepreneurship, on simple, targeted, and straightforward approaches to plan, implement, and assess interventions that aim to assist women entrepreneurs to pivot their businesses for resilience in times of tumultuous change, reduce risk, bounce back, and seize new opportunities.
Reading of the Week: Guide to Empower Womens Businesses in Transition Contexts in Africa
African Development Bank
Libya’s economic outlook relies heavily on the oil and gas sector, which constitutes a significant portion of its GDP, government revenue, and exports. With oil production expected to average 1.1 mbpd in 2024, GDP is anticipated to shrink by 2.7 percent this year
Libya Economic Monitor, Fall 2024: Stabilizing Growth and Boosting Productivity
World Bank
This report looks at the factors that impact the vulnerability of youth who are migrants in Sudan and Ethiopia. Sudan and Ethiopia are important migration crossroads in East Africa, and routes through this region are characterised by a substantial risk of abuse. The study presents a statistical analysis based on data collected in 2022–2023 in Sudan and Ethiopia
A Statistical Analysis of Migrant Youth Vulnerability in Sudan & Ethiopia
Mixed Migration Centre
This report analyses the evolution of Houthi strategy at sea over the twelve months since the start of the campaign, particularly with regard to targeting criteria, geographic scope and weapons systems used. It also considers the international military response, which includes several multinational naval missions, as well as the actions by Israel, the United Kingdom and the United States against ground targets in Yemen.
Reading Of The Week: Navigating troubled waters The Houthis campaign in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden
The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Week 4, December 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Sudan Chad and Libya knit together as illicit markets enable conflict economy
Economy Organised Crime Trade [ © ENACT Africa ]
Sudan’s civil war continues to rage, with no sign that either the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) or Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are close to a military victory or open to a ceasefire. Over 10 million civi…
Africa
Les Nigeriens approuvent les chatiments corporels
Children Sahel Policy [ © AFRO Barometer ]
La Constitution du Niger promet de protéger les enfants, soulignant le rôle de l'Etat dans la préservation de leur santé physique, mentale et morale. Malgré cet engagement, de nombreux enfants sont co…
Africa
Do No Harm: Toward an Environmental Audit of Military-Managed Civilian Projects in Egypt
Climate change Environment North-Africa [ © Carnegie Middle East Center ]
In order for Egypt to respond effectively to the alarming environmental threats it faces, it must bring the large number of military-managed projects and production in the civilian domain under a sing…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Reading Of The Week: Navigating troubled waters The Houthis campaign in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden
Red Sea Maritime Security Gulf of Aden [ © The International Institute for Strategic Studies ]
This report analyses the evolution of Houthi strategy at sea over the twelve months since the start of the campaign, particularly with regard to targeting criteria, geographic scope and weapons system…
Middle East
Community dialogue as a peacebuilding tool Insights from environmental dialogue in the Nineveh Plains of Iraq
Peace and Security Climate change [ © SIPRI Research Policy Paper ]
Iraq is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Throughout the country, communities are seeing their livelihoods and everyday lives increasingly disrupted by scorching temperatures, water scarcit…
Middle East
Rescuing Yemens Economy
Arabian Peninsula Economy [ © Sanaa Center Economic Unit ]
A political crisis has wracked the interim capital of Aden as the internationally recognized government struggles to deal with the plummeting Yemeni rial. The currency now trades at over YR2,000 to th…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Russia in the Middle East and North Africa: Arms, Power Projection and Nuclear Diplomacy
Crisis management Peace and Security Proliferation of weapons [ © Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ]
Faced with various threats and conflicts ranging from the persistence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the danger of a wider regional war to the rise of nonstate actors that systematically use …
Transnational
La relation russo-iranienne à lépreuve de lescalade militaire au Moyen-Orient
Iran Russia Policy [ © Institut Français des Relations Internationales ]
Les relations entre Téhéran et Moscou ont connu un nouvel élan depuis le début de la guerre en Ukraine, passant d'une relation transactionnelle et asymétrique depuis 1991 à la construction d'un vérita…
Faced with various threats and conflicts ranging from the persistence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the danger of a wider regional war to the rise of nonstate actors that systematically use violence in internal and external conflicts, today’s Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries are drawing in China and Russia to compete with the United States over military presence, arms sales, energy and trade ties, and security roles.
Russia in the Middle East and North Africa: Arms, Power Projection and Nuclear Diplomacy
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Les relations entre Téhéran et Moscou ont connu un nouvel élan depuis le début de la guerre en Ukraine, passant d'une relation transactionnelle et asymétrique depuis 1991 à la construction d'un véritable partenariat stratégique. Néanmoins, malgré l’approfondissement des coopérations militaire, spatiale, cyber, policière et nucléaire civile, Moscou se montre réticent à s’engager directement aux côtés de Téhéran contre les États-Unis et leurs alliés au Moyen-Orient.
La relation russo-iranienne à lépreuve de lescalade militaire au Moyen-Orient
Institut Français des Relations Internationales
Iraq is vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. Throughout the country, communities are seeing their livelihoods and everyday lives increasingly disrupted by scorching temperatures, water scarcity, extended droughts and dust storms. While the impacts of the climate crisis are widely felt, they can be especially pernicious in conflict-affected contexts as climate change exacerbates existing vulnerabilities and increases the risk of insecurity.
Community dialogue as a peacebuilding tool Insights from environmental dialogue in the Nineveh Plains of Iraq
SIPRI Research Policy Paper
A political crisis has wracked the interim capital of Aden as the internationally recognized government struggles to deal with the plummeting Yemeni rial. The currency now trades at over YR2,000 to the dollar, having lost over a third of its value since the year began. Riven by political infighting and lacking the vision or tools to arrest the slide, an acute economic collapse appears imminent if significant and sustained financial support does not arrive.
Rescuing Yemens Economy
Sanaa Center Economic Unit
Sudan’s civil war continues to rage, with no sign that either the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) or Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are close to a military victory or open to a ceasefire. Over 10 million civilians are displaced within Sudan or into neighbouring countries. Its economy is in ruins, with business centres transformed into battlefields. Severe hunger afflicts half the population, with famine emerging in Darfur.
Sudan Chad and Libya knit together as illicit markets enable conflict economy
ENACT Africa
La Constitution du Niger promet de protéger les enfants, soulignant le rôle de l'Etat dans la préservation de leur santé physique, mentale et morale. Malgré cet engagement, de nombreux enfants sont confrontés à de dures réalités. Le Niger affiche le 11ème taux de mortalité des enfants de moins de 5 ans le plus élevé au monde, car des maladies évitables (pneumonie, diarrhée, paludisme…) se développent dans un contexte d'accès limité à l'eau potable, à l'assainissement et aux soins de santé.
Les Nigeriens approuvent les chatiments corporels
AFRO Barometer
In order for Egypt to respond effectively to the alarming environmental threats it faces, it must bring the large number of military-managed projects and production in the civilian domain under a single, integrated national framework for climate change mitigation and adaptation planning, monitoring, and accountability.
Do No Harm: Toward an Environmental Audit of Military-Managed Civilian Projects in Egypt
Carnegie Middle East Center
The Indo-Mediterranean region faces escalating instability, from Houthi missile strikes disrupting maritime routes vital to piracy and regional conflicts in the Horn of Africa. A strategic IndoMed Quad—comprising the United States, United Arab Emirates, India, and Italy—offers a pragmatic framework to address these challenges
Reading of the Week: The Case for an IndoMed Quad: India, Italy, UAE, and US Cooperation
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Week 3, December 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Africas Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook. November 2024 update
Economy Trade [ © African Development Bank ]
Africa’s economic prospects have improved but growth remains fragile amidst multiple global and domestic shocks. The continent’s average real GDP growth is now projected at 3.2% in 2024, compared to 3…
Africa
The Role of AI and Digital Tools in Africas Development
Artificial intelligence New Technology [ © Observer Research Foundation ]
This brief discusses the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital technologies in meeting Africa’s development goals and argues that, for tech to make a real contribution to human development …
Africa
City Diplomacy and Human Mobility in Africa
Migration Humanitarian Aid [ © Institut français des relations internationales ]
Cities face constraints to work on migration and refugee issues, often due to a lack of decentralisation and resource constraints. Adopting an inclusive city approach can safeguard local authorities’ …
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
MENAs Emergence as a Hub for Renewable Energy Supply Chains
Energy security New Technology MENA [ © Middle East Institute ]
The Middle East and North Africa will become one of the world’s foremost renewable energy producing regions and a hub for international renewable energy supply chains within the next 25 years. Morocco…
Middle East
The Middle Easts New War of Attrition
Israel Middle East Counter terrorism [ © Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ]
As military conflicts and civil wars in the Middle East intensify—and as the actors involved grow to include a complex array of states, armed groups, and militias—diplomatic efforts to end these hosti…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Reading of the Week: The Case for an IndoMed Quad: India, Italy, UAE, and US Cooperation
Economy Policy [ © Foreign Policy Research Institute ]
The Indo-Mediterranean region faces escalating instability, from Houthi missile strikes disrupting maritime routes vital to piracy and regional conflicts in the Horn of Africa. A strategic IndoMed Qua…
Transnational
The Importance of a Joint IMF and EU Agreement for Tunisia: Learning from Greeces Economic Turnaround
Economy Bilateral Cooperation [ © The Washington Institute for Near East Policy ]
Tunisia faces a critical economic crossroads. With external debt exceeding 80% of GDP, a budget deficit over 7%, and food inflation at 9%, its financial vulnerabilities are acute. Financing the budget…
Transnational
Chinas military and private security inroads in Africa
China Peace and Security Africa [ © Geopolitical Intelligence Services ]
China closely aligns its global security expansion with its economic strategy, particularly in Africa’s Maghreb and Sahel regions. This relationship has historical roots, with China beginning engageme…
Africa’s economic prospects have improved but growth remains fragile amidst multiple global and domestic shocks. The continent’s average real GDP growth is now projected at 3.2% in 2024, compared to 3.0% in 2023. The revised growth outlook represents a downgrade of 0.5 percentage points relative to the May 2024 AEO projections
Africas Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook. November 2024 update
African Development Bank
This brief discusses the role of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital technologies in meeting Africa’s development goals and argues that, for tech to make a real contribution to human development in the continent, the process of technology development should enable African agency.
The Role of AI and Digital Tools in Africas Development
Observer Research Foundation
Cities face constraints to work on migration and refugee issues, often due to a lack of decentralisation and resource constraints. Adopting an inclusive city approach can safeguard local authorities’ commitment towards providing protection to residents regardless of status, while not overstepping legal mandates.
City Diplomacy and Human Mobility in Africa
Institut français des relations internationales
The Middle East and North Africa will become one of the world’s foremost renewable energy producing regions and a hub for international renewable energy supply chains within the next 25 years. Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Jordan are spearheading the trend in the region through the development of their respective green energy ecosystems
MENAs Emergence as a Hub for Renewable Energy Supply Chains
Middle East Institute
As military conflicts and civil wars in the Middle East intensify—and as the actors involved grow to include a complex array of states, armed groups, and militias—diplomatic efforts to end these hostilities have repeatedly faltered. The region is now plagued by immense human suffering and catastrophic material and moral losses, pushing it to the edge of collapse.
The Middle Easts New War of Attrition
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Tunisia faces a critical economic crossroads. With external debt exceeding 80% of GDP, a budget deficit over 7%, and food inflation at 9%, its financial vulnerabilities are acute. Financing the budget through the Central Bank risks worsening inflation, making a joint agreement with the IMF and EU a more viable solution.
The Importance of a Joint IMF and EU Agreement for Tunisia: Learning from Greeces Economic Turnaround
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
China closely aligns its global security expansion with its economic strategy, particularly in Africa’s Maghreb and Sahel regions. This relationship has historical roots, with China beginning engagement there as early as the 1950s by supporting national movements and decolonization efforts.
Chinas military and private security inroads in Africa
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
On 29 November, the deputy foreign ministers of Iran, France, Germany and the UK (the latter three known together as the E3) are due to meet in Geneva to discuss a range of security issues in the Middle East - including, apparently, the Iranian nuclear programme.
A Window of Opportunity on the Iran Nuclear File
The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies
Week 2, December 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Reading of the Week: Africa Gender Index 2023 Analytical Report
Africa Gender Policy [ © African Development Bank Group ]
The Africa Gender (AGI) is an authoritative source of data on gender equality and women’s empowerment in Africa. It draws together statistics from all 54 African countries across three dimensions (eco…
Africa
African migration report: climate change and migration in Africa
Africa Migration Climate change [ © United Nations Economic Commission for Africa ]
The report represents a comprehensive analysis of the linkages between climate change and migration in Africa. Emphasis is given to the importance of recognizing the interlinkages between environmenta…
Africa
Gone Fishing: A Biodiversity Loss Security Scenario in the Lake Victoria Basin
West-Africa Water security Climate change [ © Council on Strategic Risks ]
Biodiversity is the foundation for security: myriad micro-organisms filter and purify fresh water, the most basic essential for survival; pollinators hold the front line of food production; complex in…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
A Window of Opportunity on the Iran Nuclear File
Iran Proliferation of weapons [ © The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies ]
On 29 November, the deputy foreign ministers of Iran, France, Germany and the UK (the latter three known together as the E3) are due to meet in Geneva to discuss a range of security issues in the Midd…
Middle East
Reshaping the public discourse is key to restoring support for Israeli-Palestinian peace
Israel Policy [ © Middle East Institute ]
Even now, in the midst of the current dreadful escalation in Israel-Palestine, there is an opportunity to change the trajectory of events and put the region on a path toward peace. To realize this opp…
Middle East
Aramcos Diversification Strategy: Fueling Saudi Arabias Vision 2030
Arabian Peninsula Economy Trade [ © The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington ]
Saudi Aramco is not only the largest oil producer globally but also the most profitable business, surpassing tech giants like Apple and Microsoft. Aramco is evolving far beyond its traditional role, n…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Why renewable energy matters in the context of peace and stability
Renewable Energy Peace and Security [ © Clingendael ]
Many fragile and conflict-affected states (FCAS) face significant challenges related to energy access, which exacerbates instability and hinders development. Reliance on fossil fuel supply chains - fr…
Transnational
Ideological Agenda of Russian Information Influence in Africa
Russia Africa [ © The Foreign Policy Research Institute ]
Russian information operations in Africa are a tool to expand Russia’s presence on the continent and to turn African countries into allies of Russia in its confrontation with the West. This article fo…
Transnational
What FOCAC 2024 Reveals About the Future of China-Africa Relations
China Africa [ © Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ]
In early September 2024, China gathered fifty-three high-level African delegations-thirty-six of which were led by heads of state and prime ministers-to the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FO…
The Africa Gender (AGI) is an authoritative source of data on gender equality and women’s empowerment in Africa. It draws together statistics from all 54 African countries across three dimensions (economic, social and empowerment & representation) into a single index. This enables African countries to track not only their own progress over time but also against regional peers.
Reading of the Week: Africa Gender Index 2023 Analytical Report
African Development Bank Group
Many fragile and conflict-affected states (FCAS) face significant challenges related to energy access, which exacerbates instability and hinders development. Reliance on fossil fuel supply chains - frequently controlled by conflict parties - can also undermine the peacebuilding and peacekeeping efforts of UN missions often operating in these contexts.
Why renewable energy matters in the context of peace and stability
Clingendael
Russian information operations in Africa are a tool to expand Russia’s presence on the continent and to turn African countries into allies of Russia in its confrontation with the West. This article focuses on the ideological content of Russian information influence in African countries-specifically a set of narratives and ideas that Russia seeks to root in the information environment of African countries.
Ideological Agenda of Russian Information Influence in Africa
The Foreign Policy Research Institute
In early September 2024, China gathered fifty-three high-level African delegations-thirty-six of which were led by heads of state and prime ministers-to the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit. Few countries can pretend to have such convening power, especially when it comes to Africa.
What FOCAC 2024 Reveals About the Future of China-Africa Relations
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Even now, in the midst of the current dreadful escalation in Israel-Palestine, there is an opportunity to change the trajectory of events and put the region on a path toward peace. To realize this opportunity, advocates of Palestinian Israeli peace must make a strategic investment in engaging with the mass media in the region.
Reshaping the public discourse is key to restoring support for Israeli-Palestinian peace
Middle East Institute
Saudi Aramco is not only the largest oil producer globally but also the most profitable business, surpassing tech giants like Apple and Microsoft. Aramco is evolving far beyond its traditional role, now positioning itself at the forefront of economic diversification, technological innovation, and sustainability, aligning with the broader vision set forth by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to transform the Saudi economy and reduce its dependence on oil.
Aramcos Diversification Strategy: Fueling Saudi Arabias Vision 2030
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
The report represents a comprehensive analysis of the linkages between climate change and migration in Africa. Emphasis is given to the importance of recognizing the interlinkages between environmental and migration issues, with a view to undertaking comprehensive and multidimensional assessments that can feed into the design and development of sustainable and actionable policies across Africa.
African migration report: climate change and migration in Africa
United Nations Economic Commission for Africa
Biodiversity is the foundation for security: myriad micro-organisms filter and purify fresh water, the most basic essential for survival; pollinators hold the front line of food production; complex interactions across ecosystems regulate pests and disease vectors; forests, lakes, and coral reefs sustain livelihoods and economic stability.
Gone Fishing: A Biodiversity Loss Security Scenario in the Lake Victoria Basin
Council on Strategic Risks
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a pivotal catalyst for global innovation, with the United States at the forefront of the development of this transformative technology amid its ongoing great power rivalry with China. However, a notable concern has emerged: the absence of an explicit conception of AI supremacy that threatens to undermine the US' long-term AI strategy
The Role of the Middle East in the US-China Race to AI Supremacy
Middle East Institute
Week 5, November 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Reading of the Week: African Strategies to Combat Illicit Financial Flows
Organised Crime Economy Governance [ © Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ]
Global tax cooperation and the fight against illicit financial flows (IFFs) have become crucial in international economic governance, especially for African countries. As the global economy becomes mo…
Africa
Cultivating Change: Regenerative Agriculture and Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia
Climate change Horn of Africa Economy [ © Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ]
In Somalia, climate change disproportionately disrupts agricultural and pastoral livelihoods, driving harmful practices, such as resource overexploitation, which exacerbate conflicts. To address these…
Africa
Transforming the financial services sector in Africa with 4IR technologies
Economy New Technology [ © Brookings ]
Despite the prevailing narrative that Africa is falling behind in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), the continent is actually home to half of the world’s mobile money accounts, making it a pione…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
The Saudi Solution
Arabian Peninsula Bilateral Cooperation Israel [ © Foreign Affairs ]
Over the past decade, and especially since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, Israel has assumed that its military, intelligence, and technological prowess can buy it allies among the Arab Gu…
Middle East
The evolving roles of the Gulf states in the low-carbon energy transition
Energy security Gulf Region Economy [ © Atlantic Council ]
The hydrocarbon-rich Gulf states play a significant role in supplying the energy that fuels economic growth and declines in poverty rates. This role is especially pronounced across the Asian continent…
Middle East
From Struggle to Strength: Lebanons Agro-entrepreneurs in Uncertain Times
Economy Lebanon Peace and Security [ © Executive ]
The war on Lebanon, while selective and impacting some sectors less than others, has left no sector untouched. Niche businesses in the real economy — those small, specialized enterprises that often re…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
The Role of the Middle East in the US-China Race to AI Supremacy
China Russia Middle East [ © Middle East Institute ]
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a pivotal catalyst for global innovation, with the United States at the forefront of the development of this transformative technology amid its ongoing great power riva…
Transnational
For Gulf States, Gaza War Overshadows Ukraine
Peace and Security Crisis management [ © Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington ]
The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the divide between the West and East. The latter, increasingly referred to as the Global South, is not a homogenous entity but rather a collection of groups of count…
Transnational
Artificial intelligence for electoral administration and management: A pathway for Africa-EU partnership
Artificial intelligence New Technology Policy [ © European Think Tanks Group ]
The year 2024 has been dubbed ‘the election superbowl’ due to the higher number of elections taking place in different parts of the world, including in the United States and in the European Union. In …
The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the divide between the West and East. The latter, increasingly referred to as the Global South, is not a homogenous entity but rather a collection of groups of countries as well as separate big actors, such as India and Indonesia, that are motivated by varying degrees of anti-Westernism
For Gulf States, Gaza War Overshadows Ukraine
Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
The year 2024 has been dubbed ‘the election superbowl’ due to the higher number of elections taking place in different parts of the world, including in the United States and in the European Union. In Africa alone, over 20 countries have held or are approaching elections. South Africa and Rwanda already elected their presidents, while Ghana is preparing for its presidential election in December 2024
Artificial intelligence for electoral administration and management: A pathway for Africa-EU partnership
European Think Tanks Group
Over the past decade, and especially since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, Israel has assumed that its military, intelligence, and technological prowess can buy it allies among the Arab Gulf states. In more recent months, Israeli officials also came to believe that escalation would turn the regional equilibrium in their favor: a wider war between Israel and Iran and its proxies could force the Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to finally and fully join with the Israelis.
The Saudi Solution
Foreign Affairs
The hydrocarbon-rich Gulf states play a significant role in supplying the energy that fuels economic growth and declines in poverty rates. This role is especially pronounced across the Asian continent and the Pacific, where fossil fuels account for 85 percent of energy consumption
The evolving roles of the Gulf states in the low-carbon energy transition
Atlantic Council
The war on Lebanon, while selective and impacting some sectors less than others, has left no sector untouched. Niche businesses in the real economy — those small, specialized enterprises that often represent the heart of the community — are more vulnerable than large enterprises
From Struggle to Strength: Lebanons Agro-entrepreneurs in Uncertain Times
Executive
Global tax cooperation and the fight against illicit financial flows (IFFs) have become crucial in international economic governance, especially for African countries. As the global economy becomes more interconnected, base erosion and profit-shifting (BEPS) practices by multinational enterprises (MNEs) have intensified, leading to significant tax revenue losses
Reading of the Week: African Strategies to Combat Illicit Financial Flows
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In Somalia, climate change disproportionately disrupts agricultural and pastoral livelihoods, driving harmful practices, such as resource overexploitation, which exacerbate conflicts. To address these challenges, the International Organization for Migration (IOM) promotes regenerative agriculture as a part of a broader environmental peacebuilding approach aiming to replace negative coping strategies with sustainable practices for long-term resilience
Cultivating Change: Regenerative Agriculture and Peacebuilding in South-central Somalia
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Despite the prevailing narrative that Africa is falling behind in the Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR), the continent is actually home to half of the world’s mobile money accounts, making it a pioneer in integrating 4IR technology into the financial services industry, according to 4C Group and GSMA.
Transforming the financial services sector in Africa with 4IR technologies
Brookings
Despite heightened focus in the West about dependence on China – and high-level efforts to recalibrate these relations at the strategic level – Europeans’ economic reliance on China has continued to grow in recent years. EU imports from China reached €515.9 billion in 2023, across a wide array of products, many of which are vital to advanced economies.
Reading Of The Week:Material world: How Europe can compete with China in the race for Africas critical minerals
European Council on Foreign Relations
Week 4, November 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Under the weather: Stories from communities on the front lines of climate and health adaptation
Health Care Society Resilence [ © International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) ]
The health impacts of climate change are happening now. This report tells the stories of communities in three countries across Africa. Burkina Faso, Malawi and Somalia were chosen because they are amo…
Africa
How Africas Youth Can Change Its Destiny - The Case of Morocco
North-Africa Youth [ © Policy Center For The New South ]
Situated at the northwest borders of the continent, between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, Morocco has established itself as a stable and dynamic economy and a gateway to Africa. A part…
Africa
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Central African Republic
Climate change Peace and Security Sub-Saharan Africa [ © Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ]
The Central African Republic (CAR) is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change due to socioecological vulnerabilities and ongoing insecurity. Drivers of vulnerability include the absence of sta…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Keep UNRWA Alive in Gaza and the West Bank
Crisis management Society Israel [ © International Crisis Group ]
New Israeli legislation, if fully enforced, would prevent the UN Relief and Works Agency from serving Palestinian refugees in the occupied territories. Such a de facto ban would be disastrous. Questio…
Middle East
Sanctions on Syria: Irans Economic Gains and the Gulf-U.S. Divide
Bilateral Cooperation Iran Syria [ © The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington ]
In February 2011, a group of teenagers in the southern Syrian city of Daraa spray painted a message on their high school wall, calling for the regime of President Bashar al-Assad to step down. Their a…
Middle East
Gulf Energy Transition: Assessing Saudi and Emirati Goals
Gulf Region Natural resources Energy security [ © The Washington Institute for Near East Policy ]
On October 29, during Saudi Arabia’s annual Future Investment Initiative conference, Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman highlighted the kingdom’s plans for adopting low-carbon sources and renewables…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Reading Of The Week:Material world: How Europe can compete with China in the race for Africas critical minerals
China Economy Natural resources [ © European Council on Foreign Relations ]
Despite heightened focus in the West about dependence on China – and high-level efforts to recalibrate these relations at the strategic level – Europeans’ economic reliance on China has continued to g…
Transnational
Russias Great Energy Game in the Middle East
MENA Russia Energy security [ © Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ]
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has not only resurrected the specters of the Korean War in the 1950s and the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s but has also driven a large wedge between Russia and We…
Transnational
Reflections After the BRICS Summit: Membership, Payment Systems, and What Lies Ahead
Economy Trade Bilateral Cooperation [ © Wilson Center ]
The 2024 BRICS Summit made steady progress on cross-border payments and a new tier of international partners, signaling a shift in how non-Western nations approach financial cooperation. This year’s S…
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has not only resurrected the specters of the Korean War in the 1950s and the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s but has also driven a large wedge between Russia and Western nations, creating a rift deeper than any witnessed in recent history. Concurrently, Russia has been forging increasingly strong ties with other nations, including those in the Middle East.
Russias Great Energy Game in the Middle East
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The 2024 BRICS Summit made steady progress on cross-border payments and a new tier of international partners, signaling a shift in how non-Western nations approach financial cooperation. This year’s Summit reveals BRICS’ pragmatic moves toward a diversified global economy – how will shifting alignments influence the international order?
Reflections After the BRICS Summit: Membership, Payment Systems, and What Lies Ahead
Wilson Center
New Israeli legislation, if fully enforced, would prevent the UN Relief and Works Agency from serving Palestinian refugees in the occupied territories. Such a de facto ban would be disastrous. Questions about the agency’s future should wait until after the Gaza war ends.
Keep UNRWA Alive in Gaza and the West Bank
International Crisis Group
In February 2011, a group of teenagers in the southern Syrian city of Daraa spray painted a message on their high school wall, calling for the regime of President Bashar al-Assad to step down. Their arrest set off a chain of events that sparked a countrywide uprising a month later, with Syrians demanding political and economic reforms.
Sanctions on Syria: Irans Economic Gains and the Gulf-U.S. Divide
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
On October 29, during Saudi Arabia’s annual Future Investment Initiative conference, Energy Minister Abdulaziz bin Salman highlighted the kingdom’s plans for adopting low-carbon sources and renewables while maintaining “preeminence” in the oil sector. Dubbed “Davos in the Desert,” the high-profile conference is one of several events that show influential regional states increasingly prioritizing economic growth and energy diversification
Gulf Energy Transition: Assessing Saudi and Emirati Goals
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
The health impacts of climate change are happening now. This report tells the stories of communities in three countries across Africa. Burkina Faso, Malawi and Somalia were chosen because they are among the African countries most vulnerable to climate change (NDGAIN, 2024). All three countries have recently experienced climate-health events, including heatwaves, cholera outbreaks and tropical cyclones.
Under the weather: Stories from communities on the front lines of climate and health adaptation
International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC)
Situated at the northwest borders of the continent, between the Atlantic Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea, Morocco has established itself as a stable and dynamic economy and a gateway to Africa. A part of the Maghreb and Arab world, the country has for many decades embraced a policy of economic and financial openness, aiming to integrate its economy into global markets
How Africas Youth Can Change Its Destiny - The Case of Morocco
Policy Center For The New South
The Central African Republic (CAR) is highly exposed to the impacts of climate change due to socioecological vulnerabilities and ongoing insecurity. Drivers of vulnerability include the absence of state authority, natural resource mismanagement, and low household and community resilience. Although the security situation has improved in recent years, it remains volatile
Climate, Peace and Security Fact Sheet: Central African Republic
Norwegian Institute of International Affairs and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
COP 29, which will be held in Baku between November 11-22, has been widely trailed as “the finance COP” and it is certainly true that decisions on how funding for mitigation and adaptation in the developing world is to be sourced and allocated will be fundamental to the success of the Conference.
Preparing for COP 29: Seven critical success factors
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Week 3, November 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Climate finance in East Africa
Africa Climate change Economy [ © Danish Institute for International Studies ]
Highly vulnerable to climate change and already facing significant climate impacts, the countries of East Africa require both domestic and international climate finance to meet their climate goals, ad…
Africa
Illegal mining digs up multiple problems in Ghana
Sub-Saharan Africa Natural resources [ © Enhancing Africa's response to transnational organised crime ]
Ghana, Africa’s largest gold producer, launched its first refinery in August this year. The raw gold will come from the artisanal mining sector mainly because large, predominantly foreign-owned compan…
Africa
Trade And Women In The Labor Market: How Different Is MENA From Other Regions?
MENA Gender Policy [ © Policy Center for the New South ]
Using panel data from a large group of developing economies and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, we examine the effects of trade and other factors on female labor-force participation a…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Reading of the Week: Prioritizing Sustainability in MENA. Mapping critical environmental issues for regional businesses
MENA Environment Climate change [ © World Economic Forum and Bain & Company ]
Pressure is growing on companies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to accelerate their progress on sustainability. To achieve this will require regional guidelines, materiality assessments an…
Middle East
The Middle Easts changing strategic landscape
Israel Iran [ © Middle East Institute ]
For many years, Israel and Iran maintained an uneasy equilibrium of mutual deterrence and limited hostility. Iran had built up a “forward defense” strategy of allied Arab militias that it was satisfie…
Middle East
If the Gaza War Continues, Will the Houthis Mine the Gateways to the Red Sea?
Red Sea Water security [ © Stimson Center ]
In 1984, a sea mines act of sabotage, whose attribution remains debated, disrupted navigation across the Red Sea’s gateways - the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In response to regional reque…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Preparing for COP 29: Seven critical success factors
Climate change Environment Economy [ © The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies ]
COP 29, which will be held in Baku between November 11-22, has been widely trailed as “the finance COP” and it is certainly true that decisions on how funding for mitigation and adaptation in the deve…
Transnational
Countering digital disinformation: Opportunities for Europe-Africa collaboration
Africa New Technology [ © European Think Tanks Group ]
Whilst disinformation in politics predates the digital era, “the rapid expansion of access to mobile internet and to social media, combined with big data from platforms such as Facebook, Google and X,…
Transnational
Significance of Mombasa Port for Chinese outreach in Africa
Africa China [ © Observer Research Foundation ]
Africa has emerged as a pivotal partner in China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI), the maritime dimension of Beijing’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). One of the key footholds for Chine…
Whilst disinformation in politics predates the digital era, “the rapid expansion of access to mobile internet and to social media, combined with big data from platforms such as Facebook, Google and X, enabling the micro-targeting of millions of citizens with different messages for specific demographic groups, or individuals, has dramatically increased the reach and impact of digital disinformation”.
Countering digital disinformation: Opportunities for Europe-Africa collaboration
European Think Tanks Group
Africa has emerged as a pivotal partner in China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI), the maritime dimension of Beijing’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). One of the key footholds for Chinese inroads has been the Mombasa Port, located on Kenya’s south-eastern coast. Mombasa-the largest and busiest port in East Africa-serves as a gateway for landlocked countries in Africa and is central to regional trade.
Significance of Mombasa Port for Chinese outreach in Africa
Observer Research Foundation
Pressure is growing on companies in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) to accelerate their progress on sustainability. To achieve this will require regional guidelines, materiality assessments and political leadership. While the region faces considerable climate-related challenges, it is endowed with abundant access to solar and wind energy, a ready supply of capital and a long-term focus among many of its governments.
Reading of the Week: Prioritizing Sustainability in MENA. Mapping critical environmental issues for regional businesses
World Economic Forum and Bain & Company
For many years, Israel and Iran maintained an uneasy equilibrium of mutual deterrence and limited hostility. Iran had built up a “forward defense” strategy of allied Arab militias that it was satisfied could deter Israel and would keep the Iranian homeland safe. Israel was worried about this militia network - especially Hezbollah in Lebanon - but largely coexisted with those irritants and figured that neither would launch a major offensive attack.
The Middle Easts changing strategic landscape
Middle East Institute
In 1984, a sea mines act of sabotage, whose attribution remains debated, disrupted navigation across the Red Sea’s gateways - the Suez Canal and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. In response to regional requests, a U.S.-led coalition conducted countermeasure operations, restoring safe shipping in the strategic waterway connecting the Mediterranean Sea and the Indian Ocean.
If the Gaza War Continues, Will the Houthis Mine the Gateways to the Red Sea?
Stimson Center
Highly vulnerable to climate change and already facing significant climate impacts, the countries of East Africa require both domestic and international climate finance to meet their climate goals, adapt to the impacts of climate change and build resilience. This study analyses the public international climate-related development finance reaching Tanzania, Kenya and Uganda, the three largest countries in the East Africa region.
Climate finance in East Africa
Danish Institute for International Studies
Ghana, Africa’s largest gold producer, launched its first refinery in August this year. The raw gold will come from the artisanal mining sector mainly because large, predominantly foreign-owned companies supply gold mined in Ghana to refineries outside Ghana in countries such as the United Arab Emirates, Switzerland and India.
Illegal mining digs up multiple problems in Ghana
Enhancing Africa's response to transnational organised crime
Using panel data from a large group of developing economies and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator, we examine the effects of trade and other factors on female labor-force participation and wage employment. We focus particularly on comparing the effects of trade openness in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA).
Trade And Women In The Labor Market: How Different Is MENA From Other Regions?
Policy Center for the New South
On October 16, the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are set to convene their first-ever summit in Brussels, marking a historic milestone in forging a strategic partnership between these two influential blocs. This inaugural summit underscores the mutual ommitment to enhancing economic, political, and security ties, setting the stage for a collaborative future.
Reading of the Week: Enhancing EU-Gulf Strategic Relations: An Analytical and Foresight-Driven Policy Framework
Brussels International Center
Week 2, November 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Advancing AfCFTA digital trade implementation in Ghana
Economy Gulf of Guinea Trade [ © Overseas Development Institute ]
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a game-changer for Africa's economic development, and Ghana is uniquely positioned to reap the rewards. With a thriving digital economy and proactiv…
Africa
Developing Green Value Chains: Collaborating for a Mutually Beneficial EU-Africa Partnership
Bilateral Cooperation Climate change Environment [ © Istituto Affari Internazionali ]
Reducing carbon emissions entails a fundamental shift in energy production and consumption. It requires significantly more mineral products, such as copper and lithium, to manufacture low-carbon and m…
Africa
Civilian Protection in Sudan: Emerging Lessons from UNITAMS
Cooperative security Crisis management Sahel [ © Stimson ]
Sudan’s civil war disrupted the political transition and work of the UN’s former special political mission UNITAMS, forcing it to depart the country. Taking a step back from the current conflict, this…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Delivering on the UAE Consensus: Tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030
Environment Energy security Renewable Energy [ © International Renewable Energy Agency ]
This report marks the first in a series of annual tracking publications commissioned by the COP28 Presidency to assess progress towards two key goals of the outcome of the First Global Stocktake: the …
Middle East
Will Iran Withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?
Iran Proliferation of weapons Peace and Security [ © Texas National Security Review ]
The longstanding shadow conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a new, more dangerous phase of open confrontation. For decades, both nations engaged in covert operations and proxy warfare in what…
Middle East
In Light of Regional Escalation: Saudi Arabias Not Alone Approach
Arabian Peninsula Peace and Security Crisis management [ © Brussels International Center ]
Since the Israel-Gaza war erupted one year ago, the Middle East has been gripped by escalating conflict, humanitarian disaster and regional destabilisation. Despite ongoing international efforts to br…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Reading of the Week: Enhancing EU-Gulf Strategic Relations: An Analytical and Foresight-Driven Policy Framework
Bilateral Cooperation Economy Gulf Region [ © Brussels International Center ]
On October 16, the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are set to convene their first-ever summit in Brussels, marking a historic milestone in forging a strategic partnership be…
Transnational
Capital, Labor, and Land in the Digital Transition
Economy New Technology Society [ © Policy Center for the New South ]
The digital revolution is not happening in a historical vacuum. It unfolds within a framework of confrontation or collusion between market forces and government forces. Depending on the market power t…
Transnational
The missing piece of the puzzle. Women and organized crime
WPS Gender Organised Crime [ © Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime ]
Despite the existence of widely recognized international frameworks, a gendered approach to addressing transnational organized crime is generally lacking. That women are often the victims of organized…
The digital revolution is not happening in a historical vacuum. It unfolds within a framework of confrontation or collusion between market forces and government forces. Depending on the market power that companies can exercise, the digital transition will have different impacts on income distributions between capital, labor, and land, as well as on income distribution within capital itself.
Capital, Labor, and Land in the Digital Transition
Policy Center for the New South
Despite the existence of widely recognized international frameworks, a gendered approach to addressing transnational organized crime is generally lacking. That women are often the victims of organized crime —human trafficking is a good example— is a widely recognized phenomenon. But responses to organized crime often overlook women’s roles within criminal groups, and how they are impacted by illicit economies in ways that are different from men. They also fail to notice how women are agents in building effective responses to organized crime.
The missing piece of the puzzle. Women and organized crime
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
This report marks the first in a series of annual tracking publications commissioned by the COP28 Presidency to assess progress towards two key goals of the outcome of the First Global Stocktake: the tripling of renewable energy and the doubling of energy efficiency by 2030.
Delivering on the UAE Consensus: Tracking progress toward tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030
International Renewable Energy Agency
The longstanding shadow conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a new, more dangerous phase of open confrontation. For decades, both nations engaged in covert operations and proxy warfare in what was known as the “campaign between wars.” Hamas’ devastating attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, upended this dynamic.
Will Iran Withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?
Texas National Security Review
Since the Israel-Gaza war erupted one year ago, the Middle East has been gripped by escalating conflict, humanitarian disaster and regional destabilisation. Despite ongoing international efforts to broker a ceasefire, tensions remain high.
Amid this turmoil, key regional players remain deeply concerned about an uncontrollable escalation. Saudi Arabia, in particular, finds itself in a delicate position: it seeks to maintain solidarity with the Palestinian cause while keeping perspectives for a pragmatic engagement with Israel on the table.
In Light of Regional Escalation: Saudi Arabias Not Alone Approach
Brussels International Center
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a game-changer for Africa's economic development, and Ghana is uniquely positioned to reap the rewards. With a thriving digital economy and proactive government policies, Ghana is ready to embrace the opportunities presented by the AfCFTA's Protocol on Digital Trade.
Advancing AfCFTA digital trade implementation in Ghana
Overseas Development Institute
Reducing carbon emissions entails a fundamental shift in energy production and consumption. It requires significantly more mineral products, such as copper and lithium, to manufacture low-carbon and mobility products. However, accessing the critical raw materials (CRMs) and related cleantech products needed to keep global warming under the 1.5°C threshold is increasingly challenging.
Developing Green Value Chains: Collaborating for a Mutually Beneficial EU-Africa Partnership
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Sudan’s civil war disrupted the political transition and work of the UN’s former special political mission UNITAMS, forcing it to depart the country. Taking a step back from the current conflict, this report reflects on the Security Council’s attempt to support the protection of civilians in country in the few years preceding the war.
Civilian Protection in Sudan: Emerging Lessons from UNITAMS
Stimson
Since 2021, the Russian Orthodox Church has established an expanded presence in Africa, in competition with the Greek Orthodox Church in Alexandria, Egypt. Facing condemnation from the West since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has sought to expand its influence in Africa with soft power in addition to a military presence in the form of first the Wagner Group and now Africa Corps.
Reading of the Week: Russias Influence in Africa - The Role of the Russian Orthodox Churc
Foreign Policy Research Institute
Week 5, October 2024
AFRICA
Africa
ATMIS Transition and Post-ATMIS Security Arrangements in Somalia
Horn of Africa Peace and Security [ © International Peace Institute ]
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which replaced AMISOM in 2022, is a UN peacekeeping mission with the mandate to support the Somali Security Forces (SSF) in combating al-Shabaa…
Africa
Cultural practices and state weaknesses drive South Sudan-Ethiopia abductions
Horn of Africa Organised Crime [ © Enhancing Africa's response to transnational organised Crime ]
An estimated ten thousand cattle rustlers attacked an Eastern Equatoria community on 23 April, killing 32 people, stealing 16 000 head of cattle from herders - and abducting over 100 women and childre…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
The elusive Israeli quest for strategic victory
Israel Iran Lebanon [ © Fanack ]
Several Israeli attacks on Hezbollah communication systems, aerial attacks on its rocket launchers and caches, assassination of much of the movement’s top leadership and now an Israeli ground offensiv…
Middle East
Oman seeks improve its coastal security
Gulf of Oman Water security [ © The Washington Institute for Near East Policy ]
Oman is actively stepping up its coastal security in light of ongoing challenges from the "axis of resistance." The activities of Iran’s allies in its “axis of resistance” have brought into focus the …
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Reading of the Week: Russias Influence in Africa - The Role of the Russian Orthodox Churc
Russia Africa [ © Foreign Policy Research Institute ]
Since 2021, the Russian Orthodox Church has established an expanded presence in Africa, in competition with the Greek Orthodox Church in Alexandria, Egypt. Facing condemnation from the West since its …
Transnational
Civilian Support for Military Coups Isnt a Bug - Its a Feature
Africa Governance [ © Baker Institute for Public Policy ]
In September 2024, authorities in Benin detained the country’s former sports minister and a prominent businessman for allegedly plotting a coup against the West African nation’s president, Patrice Tal…
Transnational
Le partenariat strategique entre lInde et Israel au XXIeme siècle
Israel Bilateral Cooperation Policy [ © La Fondation Méditerranéenne D’études Stratégiques ]
L’Inde, pays promoteur du mouvement des non-alignés et ardent défenseur de l’anticolonialisme, a manifesté sa solidarité pour la cause palestinienne lors des premières décennies du conflit israélo-pal…
In September 2024, authorities in Benin detained the country’s former sports minister and a prominent businessman for allegedly plotting a coup against the West African nation’s president, Patrice Talon. Had a putsch materialized, Benin would have joined a growing list of African countries to have experienced a military coup over the past four years.
Civilian Support for Military Coups Isnt a Bug - Its a Feature
Baker Institute for Public Policy
L’Inde, pays promoteur du mouvement des non-alignés et ardent défenseur de l’anticolonialisme, a manifesté sa solidarité pour la cause palestinienne lors des premières décennies du conflit israélo-palestinien. Les événements du 7 octobre 2023 ont toutefois mis en exergue une proximité avec Israël. La relation indo-israélienne, dont le fil rouge est le développement du partenariat de défense, leur est en réalité mutuellement bénéfique.
Le partenariat strategique entre lInde et Israel au XXIeme siècle
La Fondation Méditerranéenne D’études Stratégiques
Several Israeli attacks on Hezbollah communication systems, aerial attacks on its rocket launchers and caches, assassination of much of the movement’s top leadership and now an Israeli ground offensive form a macabre dance with assaults in the form of relentless Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel, as well as a direct Iranian missile attack more recently. The air hangs heavy with threats of retaliation.
The elusive Israeli quest for strategic victory
Fanack
Oman is actively stepping up its coastal security in light of ongoing challenges from the "axis of resistance." The activities of Iran’s allies in its “axis of resistance” have brought into focus the major challenge that Oman has always faced in securing its 3,175 km coastline. Oman’s ability to effectively police its own territorial waters is one half of the problem.
Oman seeks improve its coastal security
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
The African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS), which replaced AMISOM in 2022, is a UN peacekeeping mission with the mandate to support the Somali Security Forces (SSF) in combating al-Shabaab and securing the country. As ATMIS is set to conclude by December 2024, discussions are underway for a follow-on mission, the African Union Support and Stabilization Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM), to ensure continued support and prevent a security vacuum.
ATMIS Transition and Post-ATMIS Security Arrangements in Somalia
International Peace Institute
An estimated ten thousand cattle rustlers attacked an Eastern Equatoria community on 23 April, killing 32 people, stealing 16 000 head of cattle from herders - and abducting over 100 women and children. The abduction of women and children during cattle raids is fairly common along the South Sudan-Ethiopia border.
Cultural practices and state weaknesses drive South Sudan-Ethiopia abductions
Enhancing Africa's response to transnational organised Crime
Next year marks 25 years since the adoption of landmark United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS). A persistent question in preparing for this event is how Security Council members that support WPS can make sure their efforts lead to changes on the ground. This is central in an era of pushback against women’s rights and gender equality in many parts of the world.
Reading of the Week: Time to Push for Next Step on Women, Peace and Security: Ensuring Positive Impact for Women in Conflict
International Peace Institute
Week 4, October 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Getting past Libyas Central Bank standoff
Economy North-Africa [ © International Crisis Group ]
The long-running feud between Libya’s competing authorities over the Central Bank has flared up again, threatening an economic crisis that could lead to unrest. The parties should press ahead with UN-…
Africa
Fighting the invisible fleet. Sierra Leones battle against IUU fishing
Gulf of Guinea Maritime Security Organised Crime [ © Enhancing Africa's Response to Transnational Organised Crime ]
Sierra Leone’s Atlantic coastline stretches for 400 km and once contained abundant marine resources crucial to the nation’s economy. The fishing industry contributes up to 12% of the country’s nationa…
Africa
De Déby à Déby. Les recettes d une succession dynastique réussie (2021-2024)
Policy Governance [ © Institut Français des Relations Internationales ]
Comme au Togo et au Gabon, la transition qui a eu lieu au Tchad de 2021 à 2024 a abouti à une succession dynastique. Mahamat Idriss Déby a succédé à son père Idriss Déby Itno, qui fut président du Tch…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
The IDF Ground Operation in Lebanon. Goals, Alternatives and Consequences
Hezbollah Israel Lebanon [ © The Institute for National Security Studies ]
Recently, the IDF began a ground operation in southern Lebanon, following the addition of “safely returning northern residents to their homes” to Israel’s war objectives. In this document we analyze p…
Middle East
In Light of Regional Escalation: Saudi Arabias Not Alone Approach
Crisis management Policy [ © Brussels International Center ]
Amid the turmoil, key regional players remain deeply concerned about an uncontrollable escalation. Saudi Arabia, in particular, finds itself in a delicate position: it seeks to maintain solidarity wit…
Middle East
Key takeaways from new polling on Irans foreign policy and regional role
Iran Economy Policy [ © Middle East Institute ]
A new public opinion poll finds the Iranian population in overwhelming, if contradictory, agreement: a majority say the country’s economic problems stem from the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy deci…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Reading of the Week: Time to Push for Next Step on Women, Peace and Security: Ensuring Positive Impact for Women in Conflict
WPS Gender Policy [ © International Peace Institute ]
Next year marks 25 years since the adoption of landmark United Nations Security Council Resolution 1325 on Women, Peace and Security (WPS). A persistent question in preparing for this event is how Sec…
Transnational
How the EU Can Reset Its Adaptation Partnership with Africa
Africa Bilateral Cooperation Economy [ © Instituto Affari Internazionali ]
The Africa-Europe adaptation partnership is facing significant challenges, with slow progress on the adaptation finance agenda at the heart of the issue. The optimistic rhetoric of “Two Unions, a Join…
The Africa-Europe adaptation partnership is facing significant challenges, with slow progress on the adaptation finance agenda at the heart of the issue. The optimistic rhetoric of “Two Unions, a Joint Vision” from the 6th European Union-African Union Summit in 2022 failed to reflect the underlying tensions. Africa’s frustration is growing due to the widening finance gap and lack of transparency, while the European Union appears increasingly fatigued by Africa’s criticism
How the EU Can Reset Its Adaptation Partnership with Africa
Instituto Affari Internazionali
Recently, the IDF began a ground operation in southern Lebanon, following the addition of “safely returning northern residents to their homes” to Israel’s war objectives. In this document we analyze potential achievements of a land manoeuvre in Lebanon and alternatives implementation.
The IDF Ground Operation in Lebanon. Goals, Alternatives and Consequences
The Institute for National Security Studies
Amid the turmoil, key regional players remain deeply concerned about an uncontrollable escalation. Saudi Arabia, in particular, finds itself in a delicate position: it seeks to maintain solidarity with the Palestinian cause while keeping perspectives for a pragmatic engagement with Israel on the table. Hence, the Israel-Gaza war presents a dilemma for Saudi Arabia, threatening its national, geostrategic and economic ambitions.
In Light of Regional Escalation: Saudi Arabias Not Alone Approach
Brussels International Center
A new public opinion poll finds the Iranian population in overwhelming, if contradictory, agreement: a majority say the country’s economic problems stem from the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy decisions, while citizens favor a continued Iranian military presence in the Middle East, approve of a new nuclear agreement with Western powers, and seek to normalize diplomatic relations with the US.
Key takeaways from new polling on Irans foreign policy and regional role
Middle East Institute
The long-running feud between Libya’s competing authorities over the Central Bank has flared up again, threatening an economic crisis that could lead to unrest. The parties should press ahead with UN-backed mediation to achieve a resolution.
Getting past Libyas Central Bank standoff
International Crisis Group
Sierra Leone’s Atlantic coastline stretches for 400 km and once contained abundant marine resources crucial to the nation’s economy. The fishing industry contributes up to 12% of the country’s national GDP, says the Ministry of Fisheries and Marine Resources and employs approximately 500 000 people out of a population of eight million – reflecting its significance in supporting livelihoods and sustaining the economy. Fish is also the primary source of protein for about 80% of Sierra Leone’s population.
Fighting the invisible fleet. Sierra Leones battle against IUU fishing
Enhancing Africa's Response to Transnational Organised Crime
Comme au Togo et au Gabon, la transition qui a eu lieu au Tchad de 2021 à 2024 a abouti à une succession dynastique.
Mahamat Idriss Déby a succédé à son père Idriss Déby Itno, qui fut président du Tchad de 1996 à 2021. Alors que la majorité des Tchadiens espéraient une alternance et un changement de gouvernance, le « système Déby » est parvenu à se maintenir.
De Déby à Déby. Les recettes d une succession dynastique réussie (2021-2024)
Institut Français des Relations Internationales
The 2024 BRICS summit, to be held in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24, will take place amid an increasingly tense geopolitical atmosphere. The crises in the Middle East and Ukraine are likely to dominate the agenda, as member states explore the future of the alliance and their nations’ roles within it.
South-Africa faces new dynamics at BRICS summit
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
Week 3, October 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Tunisias Economy in the Eye of the Storm
North-Africa Economy Governance [ © Carnegie Endowment for International Peace ]
Absent rapid reform, Tunisia’s economic policies will plunge the country into an abyss. Already, a financial crisis is brewing. This is the worrisome outcome of the path the country has followed since…
Africa
Impulser la transformation de la Mauritanie par la réforme de l'architecture financière mondiale
North-Africa infrastructure Economy [ © African Development Bank Group ]
Avec une croissance de 3,4% par an au cours de la période 1980-2019, la Mauritanie a enregistré de bonnes performances économiques au cours des quatre décennies précédant la période de Covid-19, qui l…
Africa
Improving food security and child health in Burkina Faso in a changing climate
Climate change Children Sub-Saharan Africa [ © The London School of Economics and Political Science ]
Burkina Faso, a low-income country in the Sahel region of Africa, has improved many of its human development indicators in recent decades, including reducing child mortality rates. This has been achie…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Reading of the Week: Israels Oct. 7 early warning failure: Who is to blame?
Counter terrorism Israel Peace and Security [ © Texas National Security Review ]
Despite the operational and intelligence successes of Israel in Lebanon in September 2024, a troubling question hangs over the country: Who bears responsibility for the failure to anticipate the Oct. …
Middle East
From palms to sands. How climate change is destroying green Yemen
Climate change Gulf of Aden Environment [ © The Washington Institute for Near East Policy ]
Yemen is experiencing brutal cycles of drought and deluge, a dangerous combination for a people already facing severe food insecurity. Water scarcity and desertification are among the most complex cha…
Middle East
Why Iran Struck Israel Despite the Risks
Iran Israel Extremism [ © Stimson ]
The continued lack of decisive action from Iran, while Israel steadily “salami sliced" the leadership of the Axis of Resistance, risked diminishing Iran’s influence in the region and over its partners…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
South-Africa faces new dynamics at BRICS summit
Russia Africa Crisis management [ © Geopolitical Intelligence Services ]
The 2024 BRICS summit, to be held in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24, will take place amid an increasingly tense geopolitical atmosphere. The crises in the Middle East and Ukraine are likely to domi…
Transnational
Security and development dialogue on environmental crime
Organised Crime Environment [ © Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime ]
The Security and Development Dialogue on Environmental Crime, held virtually on 18 July 2024, was the first in a series of meetings to discuss how the challenges and weaknesses in existing responses t…
Transnational
Morocco-India partnership: Field of strength to be explored
Bilateral Cooperation Economy North-Africa [ © Policy Center For The New South ]
The bilateral relationship between Morocco and India has passed through three distinct phases, culminating in the current stage of strategic partnership. Initially marked by diplomatic formalities and…
The Security and Development Dialogue on Environmental Crime, held virtually on 18 July 2024, was the first in a series of meetings to discuss how the challenges and weaknesses in existing responses to environmental crime can be addressed through the multilateral system. This series, hosted with financial support from the European Union through the ECO-SOLVE project, provides a unique platform for stakeholders from diverse backgrounds to share perspectives on the complex and evolving challenges posed by environmental crime.
Security and development dialogue on environmental crime
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
The bilateral relationship between Morocco and India has passed through three distinct phases, culminating in the current stage of strategic partnership. Initially marked by diplomatic formalities and limited engagement, the relationship gradually transitioned into a period of economic and cultural exchange, laying the groundwork for more substantial collaboration.
This Policy Paper analyzes the historical trajectory of Morocco-India relations, tracing the development from these early interactions to the establishment of a comprehensive strategic partnership.
Morocco-India partnership: Field of strength to be explored
Policy Center For The New South
Despite the operational and intelligence successes of Israel in Lebanon in September 2024, a troubling question hangs over the country: Who bears responsibility for the failure to anticipate the Oct. 7 Hamas assault that led also to the war in Lebanon and on other fronts? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his intelligence chiefs appear locked in a blame game, with each side offering conflicting accounts of whether warnings were issued and, if so, why they were not acted upon
Reading of the Week: Israels Oct. 7 early warning failure: Who is to blame?
Texas National Security Review
Yemen is experiencing brutal cycles of drought and deluge, a dangerous combination for a people already facing severe food insecurity. Water scarcity and desertification are among the most complex challenges facing Yemen. The country suffers from chronic water shortages and a high rate of desertification, not to mention natural disasters like floods, droughts, and changing weather patterns such as rising temperatures
From palms to sands. How climate change is destroying green Yemen
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
The continued lack of decisive action from Iran, while Israel steadily “salami sliced" the leadership of the Axis of Resistance, risked diminishing Iran’s influence in the region and over its partners and proxies
Why Iran Struck Israel Despite the Risks
Stimson
Absent rapid reform, Tunisia’s economic policies will plunge the country into an abyss. Already, a financial crisis is brewing. This is the worrisome outcome of the path the country has followed since President Kais Saied’s power grab in July 2021. The path is underpinned by two main aspects of economic policy.
Tunisias Economy in the Eye of the Storm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Avec une croissance de 3,4% par an au cours de la période 1980-2019, la Mauritanie a enregistré de bonnes performances économiques au cours des quatre décennies précédant la période de Covid-19, qui l’ont fait passer au rang de pays à « revenu intermédiaire de la tranche inférieure ».
Impulser la transformation de la Mauritanie par la réforme de l'architecture financière mondiale
African Development Bank Group
Burkina Faso, a low-income country in the Sahel region of Africa, has improved many of its human development indicators in recent decades, including reducing child mortality rates. This has been achieved in part through investing to improve nutrition and women’s access to health care through the Universal Health Insurance Scheme
Improving food security and child health in Burkina Faso in a changing climate
The London School of Economics and Political Science
After winning India’s general elections in June by a slender majority, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has encountered deepening challenges in the Middle East – a region that generously credited him many foreign policy successes in the last decade. During his first two terms in office (2014-19 and 2019-24), Modi’s renewed focus and proactive approach toward the Middle East
Modi 3.0: India Confronts New Realities in a Chaotic Middle East
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Week 2, October 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Population Mobility in the Sahel: Implications for Social Protection Programs and Systems
Health Care Humanitarian Aid [ © The World Bank ]
Population mobility in the Sahel is a multifaceted phenomenon. Economic factors play an important role, with many seeking better livelihoods, higher wages, and improved living standards in response to…
Africa
African states on the UN Human Rights Council, 2006-2022
Human Rights Society [ © South African Institute of International Affairs ]
This report examines the record and participation of the African Group at the UN Human Rights Council from 2006 to 2022. The study considers 450 votes and 5 850 voting decisions, with the focus on the…
Africa
Libya: Hybrid human smuggling system prove resilient
Mediteranean (Sea) Migration Organised Crime [ © Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime ]
This report details the key trends and developments in human smuggling in Libya in 2023. In large degree, the year was one of continuity with the patterns seen in 2022. Over the course of the year, fo…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Reading of the Week: A Wider Middle East War Can Still Be Stopped
Iran Hezbollah Israel [ © International Crisis Group ]
A year after Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack in southern Israel, the Middle East is on the cusp of all-out war. Since Israel launched its military response in Gaza, the Biden administration has tried bo…
Middle East
The UAEs Network-Based Vision for Economic Integration
Economy Gulf of Oman [ © The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington ]
China’s mega Belt and Road Initiative, once President Xi Jinping’s flagship project, does not lack leadership support. Yet, 11 years after its inception, the project has yet to take off as envisioned.…
Middle East
In Lebanon, a Rare Moment of Opportunity
Hezbollah Lebanon Crisis management [ © The Washington Institute ]
On September 30, after a devastating ten-day stretch culminating in Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati announced his government’s su…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Modi 3.0: India Confronts New Realities in a Chaotic Middle East
Economy Bilateral Cooperation [ © The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington ]
After winning India’s general elections in June by a slender majority, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has encountered deepening challenges in the Middle East – a region that generously credited him many…
Transnational
Africa and the Middle East: The Shift from Geopolitics to Geoeconomics
MENA Economy Cooperative security [ © Policy Center for the New South ]
In the post-Cold War era, the Middle East and Africa were defined largely by their geopolitical significance. The West, especially the United States and Europe, engaged with these regions through a le…
Transnational
Why Gender matters in violent extremist propaganda strategy
Gender Extremism Human Rights [ © International Centre for Counter Terrorism ]
This policy brief presents the gender representations theoretical framework to analyse how and why gender is used in the propaganda and politico-military strategies of violent extremist movements. It …
In the post-Cold War era, the Middle East and Africa were defined largely by their geopolitical significance. The West, especially the United States and Europe, engaged with these regions through a lens focused on security, energy supply, and strategic alliances. However, this dynamic has shifted significantly over the last two decades.
Africa and the Middle East: The Shift from Geopolitics to Geoeconomics
Policy Center for the New South
This policy brief presents the gender representations theoretical framework to analyse how and why gender is used in the propaganda and politico-military strategies of violent extremist movements. It argues that violent extremist ideologies break down in-group and out-group collective identities into individual “good” and “bad” gender identities, or gender representations.
Why Gender matters in violent extremist propaganda strategy
International Centre for Counter Terrorism
A year after Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack in southern Israel, the Middle East is on the cusp of all-out war. Since Israel launched its military response in Gaza, the Biden administration has tried both to broker a ceasefire there and to manage the risk of regional escalation. But the lack of a Gaza deal has fuelled hostilities elsewhere, and today the regional containment effort is at grave risk.
Reading of the Week: A Wider Middle East War Can Still Be Stopped
International Crisis Group
China’s mega Belt and Road Initiative, once President Xi Jinping’s flagship project, does not lack leadership support. Yet, 11 years after its inception, the project has yet to take off as envisioned. Meanwhile, the global trade and investment strategy of the United Arab Emirates – a country of just 11 million people – is providing an alternative vision
The UAEs Network-Based Vision for Economic Integration
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
On September 30, after a devastating ten-day stretch culminating in Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati announced his government’s support for implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The 2006 resolution was endorsed by Beirut, but the state never implemented its most important provision
In Lebanon, a Rare Moment of Opportunity
The Washington Institute
Population mobility in the Sahel is a multifaceted phenomenon. Economic factors play an important role, with many seeking better livelihoods, higher wages, and improved living standards in response to widespread poverty, unemployment, and limited job opportunities. The large scale of internal mobility reflects opportunities and challenges for migrants and their families
Population Mobility in the Sahel: Implications for Social Protection Programs and Systems
The World Bank
This report examines the record and participation of the African Group at the UN Human Rights Council from 2006 to 2022. The study considers 450 votes and 5 850 voting decisions, with the focus on the African states’ records on country-specific resolutions and civil and political rights. It uses five categories to classify the African Group’s commitment to human rights
African states on the UN Human Rights Council, 2006-2022
South African Institute of International Affairs
This report details the key trends and developments in human smuggling in Libya in 2023. In large degree, the year was one of continuity with the patterns seen in 2022. Over the course of the year, for example, 77 470 migrants departed the Libyan coast, only marginally higher than 2022’s figure of 75 500
Libya: Hybrid human smuggling system prove resilient
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
In rural South Sudan, markets for food, labour and land are expanding, and women’s workloads are increasing. In the twentieth century, most rural women had two main labour burdens: they produced food for home consumption on family farms; and at home provided life-giving labour, like child-rearing, emotional support, cooking and cleaning. These two labour burdens were unpaid. But now, they have a third labour burden.
Reading of the Week: The triple burden: women selling their labour in South-Sudan
Rift Valley Institute
Week 1, October 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Reading of the Week: The triple burden: women selling their labour in South-Sudan
WPS Gender Sahel [ © Rift Valley Institute ]
In rural South Sudan, markets for food, labour and land are expanding, and women’s workloads are increasing. In the twentieth century, most rural women had two main labour burdens: they produced food …
Africa
Bien que contre lusage de la force physique sur les femmes, les Mauritaniens estiment que la violence conjugale est une affaire privée
Gender WPS Human Rights [ © Afro Barometer ]
L'Indice 2021/2022 sur les femmes, la paix et la sécurité classe la Mauritanie au 157e rang sur 170 pays, soit le 13e pire rang mondial, en termes de statut et d'autonomisation des femmes. Une des rai…
Africa
Dysfunction and disillusionment in Kenya
Youth Society Sub-Saharan Africa [ © Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG ]
Protests in Kenya began on June 18, triggered by the country’s treasury announcing a set of revenue-raising measures. The new levies included a 16 percent sales tax on bread, a 25 percent duty on cook…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Enhancing the Role of Microfinance Banks for Sustainable Impact in Yemen
Gulf of Aden Economy [ © Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies ]
Yemen’s microfinance sector is undergoing a radical transformation. Despite initial success in empowering small businesses, the ongoing conflict has exposed deep vulnerabilities. Competition between t…
Middle East
The bread-and-butter issues of jobs and taxes in the Gulf
Economy Trade [ © The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington ]
With the U.S. presidential election heating up, jobs and taxes have become hot topics on the campaign trail. Employment initiatives and tax reform remain salient policy issues in the Gulf too, though …
Middle East
Renewed activity at the Sanjarian Amad site
Iran Proliferation of weapons Natural resources [ © Institute for Science and International Security ]
During the last year and a half, Iran has reportedly reactivated and accelerated activities at two former Amad Plan sites that were key to Iran’s development of nuclear weapons during its crash nuclea…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Value for money. Why and how Europeans should support the failing economies of Egypt and Tunisia
Economy Policy [ © European Council on Foreign Relations ]
The crises of the last few years have split the states of the Middle East and North Africa into winners and losers. While major energy-exporting countries flourished as hydrocarbon prices rose, others…
Transnational
La Russie et les nouveaux membres des BRICS. Opportunités et limites d'une coopération scientifique et technologique
Russia Bilateral Cooperation [ © Institut Français des Relations Internationales ]
À l’issue du 15e sommet des BRICS, qui s’est tenu du 22 au 24 août 2023 à Johannesburg (Afrique du Sud), il a été décidé d’inviter six nouveaux pays à rejoindre cette alliance : l’Argentine, l’Égypte,…
The crises of the last few years have split the states of the Middle East and North Africa into winners and losers. While major energy-exporting countries flourished as hydrocarbon prices rose, others have been hit by a succession of shocks that include rising import prices, capital outflows, and falling growth. Among the region’s faltering economies, Egypt and Tunisia have attracted particular concern in Europe, because of the risk that economic distress could lead to instability and irregular migration directly affecting European countries
Value for money. Why and how Europeans should support the failing economies of Egypt and Tunisia
European Council on Foreign Relations
À l’issue du 15e sommet des BRICS, qui s’est tenu du 22 au 24 août 2023 à Johannesburg (Afrique du Sud), il a été décidé d’inviter six nouveaux pays à rejoindre cette alliance : l’Argentine, l’Égypte, l’Iran, les Émirats arabes unis, l’Arabie saoudite et l’Éthiopie. En 2024, tous ces pays à l’exception de l’Argentine sont devenus membres des BRICS+.
Il est probable que l’adhésion de ces nouveaux pays, outre des avantages politiques et économiques, contribue à leur développement scientifique et technologique.
La Russie et les nouveaux membres des BRICS. Opportunités et limites d'une coopération scientifique et technologique
Institut Français des Relations Internationales
Yemen’s microfinance sector is undergoing a radical transformation. Despite initial success in empowering small businesses, the ongoing conflict has exposed deep vulnerabilities. Competition between the fractured central banks has driven a surge in microfinance bank (MFB) licenses. While this promises to expand financial inclusion, it raises serious concerns about long-term sustainability and financial stability.
Enhancing the Role of Microfinance Banks for Sustainable Impact in Yemen
Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies
With the U.S. presidential election heating up, jobs and taxes have become hot topics on the campaign trail. Employment initiatives and tax reform remain salient policy issues in the Gulf too, though the underlying political economy dynamics differ. In July, Oman’s government announced more than 30 new professions that non-Omanis would be prohibited from working in as of September 2. Meanwhile, a draft law on personal income tax – the first ever for a Gulf Cooperation Council country – is making its way through Oman’s Parliament
The bread-and-butter issues of jobs and taxes in the Gulf
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
During the last year and a half, Iran has reportedly reactivated and accelerated activities at two former Amad Plan sites that were key to Iran’s development of nuclear weapons during its crash nuclear weapons program in the early 2000s, according to Western intelligence officials who decided to release officially the information to the Institute on the condition of remaining anonymous. The two sites, Sanjarian and Golab Dareh, were central to the Amad Plan’s development of a sophisticated multipoint initiation (MPI) system.
Renewed activity at the Sanjarian Amad site
Institute for Science and International Security
L'Indice 2021/2022 sur les femmes, la paix et la sécurité classe la Mauritanie au 157e rang sur 170 pays, soit le 13e pire rang mondial, en termes de statut et d'autonomisation des femmes. Une des raisons importantes en est la généralisation de la violence basée sur le genre rendue possible en partie par les tabous sociétaux et la faiblesse du système de protection et d'application de la loi
Bien que contre lusage de la force physique sur les femmes, les Mauritaniens estiment que la violence conjugale est une affaire privée
Afro Barometer
Protests in Kenya began on June 18, triggered by the country’s treasury announcing a set of revenue-raising measures.
The new levies included a 16 percent sales tax on bread, a 25 percent duty on cooking oil and the introduction of an
“eco tax” on several basic products. The measures were approved in the Kenyan National Assembly on June 20
Dysfunction and disillusionment in Kenya
Geopolitical Intelligence Services AG
In July, Iran and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) resumed diplomatic relations after eight years of a bilateral nadir. The agreement was already signed in October 2023, but the new Iranian ambassador, Hassan Shah Hosseini, was only received by SAF’s chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who dispatched a Sudanese ambassador to Tehran more than half a year later.
A New Old Player in Town: Reconciliation between Sudan and Iran and its Regional Implications
Brussels International Center
Week 5, September 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Reading of the Week: Non-State Armed Groups and Illicit Economies in West Africa: Anglophone separatists
Peace and Security Economy Society [ © Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project ]
This report offers a contemporary analysis of the operations, the organization, the involvement in illicit economies and the financing of the Anglophone separatist armed groups in the Northwest and So…
Africa
Les Béninois restent sur leur soif en matière de lutte contre la pollution
Demographics Environment West-Africa [ © Afro Barometer ]
Le Bénin est confronté à des défis environnementaux majeurs liés à la pollution. Les principaux facteurs contribuant à cette situation préoccupante sont la croissance démographique rapide, l'urbanisat…
Africa
Roadblocks at the rhythm of the country : a political sociology of roadblocks in DR Congo
Policy Society [ © Danish Institute for International Studies ]
This working paper develops a political sociology of roadblocks to demonstrate how roadblocks in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) contribute to the production and reproduction of public auth…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Drivers and strategic puzzles of Saudi modernization
Economy Society Arabian Peninsula [ © Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations ]
Saudi Arabia’s ‘Vision 2030’ set in motion a large-scale, mainly state-led and top-down modernization agenda to diversify the Saudi economy beyond oil, develop a new national development ethos, reshap…
Middle East
The impact of war on youth activism in Yemen
Arabian Peninsula Youth Policy [ © Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies ]
Youth form a distinct social group in Yemeni political culture. After experiencing marginalization and manipulation during the era of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the 2011 revolution gave hope for a …
Middle East
A Two-State Solution That Can Work
Israel Peace and Security Crisis management [ © Foreign Affairs ]
In July, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the war in Gaza and the future of the Middle East. Afterward, Harris stressed her commitment to…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
A New Old Player in Town: Reconciliation between Sudan and Iran and its Regional Implications
Iran Sub-Saharan Africa Bilateral Cooperation [ © Brussels International Center ]
In July, Iran and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) resumed diplomatic relations after eight years of a bilateral nadir. The agreement was already signed in October 2023, but the new Iranian ambassador,…
Transnational
The Promise of Bioeconomy as a Solution for Sustainability
Climate change Economy Renewable Energy [ © The Observer Research Foundation ]
Relentless urbanisation often has a heavy environmental cost, arising from activities such as the consumption of fossil resources to fuel industrialisation and infrastructure development. The resultin…
Transnational
Africas critical minerals : Boosting development amid geopolitical challenges
Natural resources Climate change Policy [ © The South African Institute of International Affairs ]
Africa’s large reserves of critical minerals could boost continental industrialisation, while helping global measures against climate change. However, geopolitical tensions between the US-led Group of…
Relentless urbanisation often has a heavy environmental cost, arising from activities such as the consumption of fossil resources to fuel industrialisation and infrastructure development. The resulting surge in greenhouse gas emissions is one of the biggest contributors to climate change, which leads to frequent extreme weather events such as floods, droughts, and heatwaves. Such events pose an existential threat to human life, infrastructure, and economic stability.
The Promise of Bioeconomy as a Solution for Sustainability
The Observer Research Foundation
Africa’s large reserves of critical minerals could boost continental industrialisation, while helping global measures against climate change. However, geopolitical tensions between the US-led Group of Seven (G7) and China are adding to some of the structural factors hindering African efforts to move up critical mineral value chains. This policy insight compares the role of Chinese actors in the DRC and Zimbabwe’s mineral sectors with emerging counter-initiatives led by G7 partners.
Africas critical minerals : Boosting development amid geopolitical challenges
The South African Institute of International Affairs
Saudi Arabia’s ‘Vision 2030’ set in motion a large-scale, mainly state-led and top-down modernization agenda to diversify the Saudi economy beyond oil, develop a new national development ethos, reshape Saudi identity and introduce greater lifestyle options while maintaining consolidated rule in the hands of the Al Saud. The envisaged transformation is fully in line with the vested interests of the Saudi monarchy and much of the business elite, as well as some of the country’s younger generations.
Drivers and strategic puzzles of Saudi modernization
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Youth form a distinct social group in Yemeni political culture. After experiencing marginalization and manipulation during the era of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the 2011 revolution gave hope for a new era of inclusion in which political parties would take Yemeni youth seriously as stakeholders and decision-makers on senior committees. However, the war that erupted following the Houthi takeover of Sana’a in 2014 erased gains made by youth during the transition period and led to divisions between youth activists inside and outside Yemen.
The impact of war on youth activism in Yemen
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
In July, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the war in Gaza and the future of the Middle East. Afterward, Harris stressed her commitment to a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians-in her words, “the only path that ensures Israel remains a secure Jewish and democratic state, and one that ensures Palestinians can finally realize the freedom, security, and prosperity that they rightly deserve.”
She is hardly alone in this sentiment.
A Two-State Solution That Can Work
Foreign Affairs
This report offers a contemporary analysis of the operations, the organization, the involvement in illicit economies and the financing of the Anglophone separatist armed groups in the Northwest and Southwest regions of Cameroon, as well as their relationships with civilian communities.
Reading of the Week: Non-State Armed Groups and Illicit Economies in West Africa: Anglophone separatists
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project
Le Bénin est confronté à des défis environnementaux majeurs liés à la pollution. Les principaux facteurs contribuant à cette situation préoccupante sont la croissance démographique rapide, l'urbanisation galopante et le développement industriel non réglementé.
Les Béninois restent sur leur soif en matière de lutte contre la pollution
Afro Barometer
This working paper develops a political sociology of roadblocks to demonstrate how roadblocks in eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) contribute to the production and reproduction of public authority beyond their spatial and regulatory effects and while transcending particular claimants to authority.
Roadblocks at the rhythm of the country : a political sociology of roadblocks in DR Congo
Danish Institute for International Studies
The paper presents an overview of key migration trends in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. It discusses the domestic implications of an increase in migrant arrivals and analyses how governments have approached this issue.
Maghreb migrations: How North Africa and Europe can work together on sub-Saharan migration
European Council on Foreign Relations
Week 4, September 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Reading of the Week: Without Sudans Warring Parties in Geneva, Whats Next for Peace Talks?
Africa Crisis management [ © United States Institute of Peace ]
A U.S.-led peace initiative to end Sudan’s brutal civil war took place in Geneva over the last two weeks. But despite invitations and extensive international pressure, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) …
Africa
From conflict to collaboration: Co-funding environmental peacebuilding in South-Central Somalia
Horn of Africa Climate change [ © Stockholm International Peace Research Institute ]
Somalia is experiencing significant impacts of climate change, including higher air temperatures, increased evaporation and more variable inter annual rainfall, all of which lead to more frequent and …
Africa
Rapport Pays 2024 - Burkina Faso - Impulser la transformation du Burkina Faso par la réforme de larchitecture financière mondiale
Sub-Saharan Africa Economy [ © African Development Bank Group ]
Le contexte du Burkina Faso se caractérise par une crise sécuritaire depuis 2015, une crise humanitaire et alimentaire et une instabilité politique, affectant ainsi les perspe…
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Middle East Outlook: The Energy Transition Roils the Land of Oil
Arabian Peninsula Economy [ © Baker Institute for Public Policy ]
For the Middle East, the energy-climate dilemma is causing a shift in strategy. Oil-producing countries along the Persian Gulf are at the epicenter of the energy transition, but its slow pace suggests…
Middle East
Engaging Yemens Private Sector in Peacebuilding Amidst Ongoing Conflict
Gulf of Aden Governance [ © Manara Magazine ]
The ongoing conflict in Yemen has had devastating effects on the economy, fracturing it along the lines of the warring parties. The country is effectively split between the internationally recognized …
Middle East
The Proposal for a Regional Nuclear Fuel Bank in Saudi Arabia
Israel Arabian Peninsula Proliferation of weapons [ © The Institute for National Security Studies ]
Israel should maintain its traditional position of opposing the establishment of an independent nuclear fuel cycle in Saudi Arabia, given the negative strategic ramifications of such a move. Specifica…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Maghreb migrations: How North Africa and Europe can work together on sub-Saharan migration
Africa Migration [ © European Council on Foreign Relations ]
The paper presents an overview of key migration trends in Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia. It discusses the domestic implications of an increase in migrant arrivals and analyses how governments have app…
Transnational
Complex Global Shocks, Emergency Platforms, and United Nations Reform
Policy Crisis management [ © Stimson ]
Too often when disasters strike, structural impediments as well as inadequate political will and resources deadlock and disable the United Nations (UN) from coherently and effectively responding. Rece…
Transnational
Chinas Expanding Solar Footprint in the Gulf
China Arabian Peninsula Economy [ © The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington ]
China’s recent third plenum highlights the Communist Party’s commitment to guiding the country’s economy through ongoing global tensions and domestic challenges by focusing on sustainable, high-qualit…
Too often when disasters strike, structural impediments as well as inadequate political will and resources deadlock and disable the United Nations (UN) from coherently and effectively responding. Recent worldwide shocks with extraordinary humanitarian impacts, notably the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022), the cost-of-living crisis (2022–), and Russia’s resurgent invasion of Ukraine (2022–) have prompted calls for the Organization to play a more pronounced role in coordinating aid at the same time as other demands for UN reform have looked to confront injustices in its structure and operations.
Complex Global Shocks, Emergency Platforms, and United Nations Reform
Stimson
China’s recent third plenum highlights the Communist Party’s commitment to guiding the country’s economy through ongoing global tensions and domestic challenges by focusing on sustainable, high-quality growth fueled by advanced technologies. Despite a robust economic performance and a leading role in global green energy, China’s solar industry faces significant turbulence from overexpansion, fierce competition, and external tariffs.
Chinas Expanding Solar Footprint in the Gulf
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
For the Middle East, the energy-climate dilemma is causing a shift in strategy. Oil-producing countries along the Persian Gulf are at the epicenter of the energy transition, but its slow pace suggests difficult times in coming decades rather than in the next year or two. Economic risks from softening oil demand loom largest, but others — including the potential reduction in strategic importance to Washington and rebalancing of domestic social contracts — add further exposures.
Middle East Outlook: The Energy Transition Roils the Land of Oil
Baker Institute for Public Policy
The ongoing conflict in Yemen has had devastating effects on the economy, fracturing it along the lines of the warring parties. The country is effectively split between the internationally recognized government, which theoretically controls much of the south but is actually based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthi rebels, who hold sway over the north, including the capital, Sanaa.
Engaging Yemens Private Sector in Peacebuilding Amidst Ongoing Conflict
Manara Magazine
Israel should maintain its traditional position of opposing the establishment of an independent nuclear fuel cycle in Saudi Arabia, given the negative strategic ramifications of such a move. Specifically, Israel should insist on applying the nuclear “gold standard,” as was the case with the United Arab Emirates.
The Proposal for a Regional Nuclear Fuel Bank in Saudi Arabia
The Institute for National Security Studies
A U.S.-led peace initiative to end Sudan’s brutal civil war took place in Geneva over the last two weeks. But despite invitations and extensive international pressure, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) declined to send a delegation to Switzerland altogether, while the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sent a delegation.
Reading of the Week: Without Sudans Warring Parties in Geneva, Whats Next for Peace Talks?
United States Institute of Peace
Somalia is experiencing significant impacts of climate change, including higher air temperatures, increased evaporation and more variable inter annual rainfall, all of which lead to more frequent and severe droughts and floods. These changes have direct consequences for the estimated 72 per cent of the national population that relies on farming and pastoralism.
From conflict to collaboration: Co-funding environmental peacebuilding in South-Central Somalia
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Le contexte du Burkina Faso se caractérise par une crise sécuritaire depuis 2015, une crise humanitaire et alimentaire et une instabilité politique, affectant ainsi les perspectives économiques du pays. Le Burkina Faso, affecté par les changements climatiques, a une économie peu diversifiée et vulnérable aux chocs externes.
Rapport Pays 2024 - Burkina Faso - Impulser la transformation du Burkina Faso par la réforme de larchitecture financière mondiale
African Development Bank Group
In June 2024, ESD got the chance to sit down with General (ret.) Thomas Antonius Middendorp, of the Royal Netherlands Armed Forces to discuss his thoughts on the links between climate change and security challenges, as well as the benefits to be gained by modern militaries through the adoption of ‘green’ technologies. Gen. Middendorp has witnessed first-hand the effects of and security risks posed by climate change during his time in uniform.
Reading of the Week: The Climate General - Weighing the impact of climate change on security and how militaries should evolve
European Security & Defence
Week 3, September 2024
AFRICA
Africa
To Stem the Tide: Climate Change, UNMISS, and the Protection of Civilians
Africa Climate change [ © Center for Civilians in Conflict ]
In South Sudan, climate impacts-most clearly in the form of flooding and drought-have contributed to mass displacement, exacerbated resource and food scarcity, and dramatically affected agricultural a…
Africa
South Africas G20 Presidency: Tapping into Africas Potential through Financial, Climate and Food System Reform
Africa Economy [ © Istituto Affari Internazionali ]
Both the G20 and BRICS+ are critical global groupings for economic and geostrategic reasons. Thirty years ago, G7 countries constituted nearly 70 per cent of the global economy. In contrast, by 2024, …
Africa
CHAD Human Smuggling Picks Up Amid Persisting Instability And The Sudan Conflict
Sahel Organised Crime [ © Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime ]
Over the past four years, the human smuggling ecosystem in Chad has continued to evolve and change. The Chadian government, for its part, has increasingly sought to tighten controls on the northbound …
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
The VPN Epidemic in Iran: A Digital Plague Amid Global Isolation
Iran New Technology [ © Stimson ]
Internet filtering and the widespread use of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) have become one of Iran’s most significant challenges, especially since the administration of the late President Ebrahim Ra…
Middle East
Hezbollahs strategy against Israel since October 2023
Israel Hezbollah [ © Manara Magazine ]
Following the last war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 that left 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israelis dead, and thousands more injured, the border between Israel and Lebanon remained relatively calm f…
Middle East
Has Regional Detente Paved the Way for Collective Maritime Security in the Gulf?
Arabian Peninsula Water security [ © The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington ]
In recent months, there has been a gradual thawing of hostilities among long-standing rivals in the Gulf. From the Chinese-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize diplomatic rela…
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
Reading of the Week: The Climate General - Weighing the impact of climate change on security and how militaries should evolve
Climate change Peace and Security [ © European Security & Defence ]
In June 2024, ESD got the chance to sit down with General (ret.) Thomas Antonius Middendorp, of the Royal Netherlands Armed Forces to discuss his thoughts on the links between climate change and secur…
Transnational
A New Centrality for the Euro-Mediterranean Space
MENA Cooperative security [ © European Institute of the Mediterranean ]
We are witnessing a moment of transition in international governance. Everyone unanimously concludes that we are facing a multipolar world. This process of reconfiguration of international architectur…
Transnational
How Great Power Competition Undermines Global Stability
Policy Crisis management [ © The National Interest ]
In an increasingly Hobbesian world that seems to be spinning out of control, there are currently some fifty state-based conflicts-more than at any time since World War II. Yet, not too long ago, an in…
We are witnessing a moment of transition in international governance. Everyone unanimously concludes that we are facing a multipolar world. This process of reconfiguration of international architecture leads us to consider the future of the Euro-Mediterranean area today.
A New Centrality for the Euro-Mediterranean Space
European Institute of the Mediterranean
In an increasingly Hobbesian world that seems to be spinning out of control, there are currently some fifty state-based conflicts-more than at any time since World War II. Yet, not too long ago, an international consensus had emerged on the importance of an effective, shared response to instability-whether violent or substantial breakdowns in public order, mass migrations, or humanitarian crises.
How Great Power Competition Undermines Global Stability
The National Interest
Internet filtering and the widespread use of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) have become one of Iran’s most significant challenges, especially since the administration of the late President Ebrahim Raisi, when these practices expanded and grew more complex. With the inauguration of a new government following the July 2024 election of President Masoud Pezeshkian, one of the most pressing questions among the public is whether the administration has both the will and the ability to end the nation’s reliance on VPNs.
The VPN Epidemic in Iran: A Digital Plague Amid Global Isolation
Stimson
Following the last war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 that left 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israelis dead, and thousands more injured, the border between Israel and Lebanon remained relatively calm for around 17 years. However, since the Gaza war started in October 2023, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged fire along the border on a nearly daily basis, with clashes concentrated on southern Lebanon and more recently the Bekaa region on the one hand, and northern Israel and the Golan Heights on the other hand.
Hezbollahs strategy against Israel since October 2023
Manara Magazine
In recent months, there has been a gradual thawing of hostilities among long-standing rivals in the Gulf. From the Chinese-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize diplomatic relations to Saudi-Houthi peace talks over the war in Yemen and the subsided animosities within the Gulf Cooperation Council, concrete manifestations of detente abound.
Has Regional Detente Paved the Way for Collective Maritime Security in the Gulf?
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
In South Sudan, climate impacts-most clearly in the form of flooding and drought-have contributed to mass displacement, exacerbated resource and food scarcity, and dramatically affected agricultural and grazing patterns. As in other contexts, these phenomena do not alone explain the persistent conflict and political violence that have seized South Sudan in the short time since its independence.
To Stem the Tide: Climate Change, UNMISS, and the Protection of Civilians
Center for Civilians in Conflict
Both the G20 and BRICS+ are critical global groupings for economic and geostrategic reasons. Thirty years ago, G7 countries constituted nearly 70 per cent of the global economy. In contrast, by 2024, the BRICS+ bloc accounted for approximately 35 per cent of the world’s GDP, compared to the 30 per cent held by G7 countries. Meanwhile, G20 countries represent 85 per cent of the global economy, 75 per cent of global trade, and 62 per cent of the world’s population.
South Africas G20 Presidency: Tapping into Africas Potential through Financial, Climate and Food System Reform
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Over the past four years, the human smuggling ecosystem in Chad has continued to evolve and change. The Chadian government, for its part, has increasingly sought to tighten controls on the northbound movement of migrants, perceiving the flow of people as contributing to instability, rebel activity and organized crime in the north as well as in southern Libya.
CHAD Human Smuggling Picks Up Amid Persisting Instability And The Sudan Conflict
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
The United States, Egypt, and Qatar are making a ‘last gasp’ diplomatic push to secure a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Mediators say that the latest truce offer, which they hope to finalize in Cairo this week, ‘bridges’ several contentious details that had thwarted previous talks. At the time of writing, the prospects for the negotiations look bleak. The terms of the ceasefire have yet to be fully disclosed, but they appear to have veered from earlier frameworks offered in May and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2735.
The real schism in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks is about who decides Gazas future
Chatham House
Week 2, September 2024
AFRICA
Africa
Critical minerals investment must avoid the mistakes of the past in African mining
Economy Natural resources [ © Atlantic Council ]
According to the US Department of Energy, there are fifty minerals that are “critical”—in that they not only serve an essential function in the technologies of the future but are also at a high risk o…
Africa
Western Saharas conflict is over. Negotiating the terms comes next
Crisis management North-Africa Policy [ © United States Institute Of Peace ]
One of Africa’s longest wars shifted toward a conclusion in July when France recognized Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over the Western Sahara. That action, alongside Morocco’s military advantage, eff…
Africa
A Stagnant Transition in Guinea
Gulf of Guinea Radicalisation Crisis management [ © Africa Center For Strategic Studies ]
The Guinean junta’s growing repression and intolerance for dissent risk derailing the promised transition back to civilian government while deepening the country’s humanitarian crisis.
MIDDLE EAST
Middle East
Reading of the Week: Assessing the Status of Digital Integration of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in the Middle East and North Africa
New Technology Economy MENA [ © Wilson Center ]
Small and medium-sized enterprises represent around 80-90% of private sector businesses in the MENA region, and they employ over 50% of the formal workforce in some countries. Of that, new digital sta…
Middle East
Israel-Hezbollah Contained Escalation Halts Concern Over Broader Mideast War
Israel Hezbollah Counter terrorism [ © United States Institute Of Peace ]
For weeks, concerns over the risk of miscalculation or even intentional escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have dominated attention. Ramped up cross-border attacks between the two sides on Sunday…
Middle East
The Houthis Achilles Heel
Terrorism Gulf of Aden Crisis management [ © The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington ]
In recent months, as the United States has struggled to deter and degrade the Houthis, Yemen’s United Nations-recognized government has worked to dramatically increase economic pressure on the group. …
TRANSNATIONAL
Transnational
The real schism in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks is about who decides Gazas future
Counter terrorism Crisis management Peace and Security [ © Chatham House ]
The United States, Egypt, and Qatar are making a ‘last gasp’ diplomatic push to secure a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Mediators say that the latest truce offer, which they hope to finalize…
Transnational
Local Opportunities and Global Disputes: Tracking Japans Engagement with Africa amid Geopolitical Tensions
Bilateral Cooperation Economy Trade [ © South African Institute of International Affairs ]
Japan’s relationship with Africa is changing rapidly. While Tokyo has maintained its traditional aid-focused approach to the continent, it is also encouraging more engagement from the Japanese private…
Japan’s relationship with Africa is changing rapidly. While Tokyo has maintained its traditional aid-focused approach to the continent, it is also encouraging more engagement from the Japanese private sector and a stronger focus on critical minerals.These shifts come amid growing tensions between the G7 advanced economies and the People’s Republic of China.
This policy insight shows that concern about Chinese influence in critical mineral supply lines, and its wider involvement in key African sectors like green energy, industrialisation and infrastructure, is leading Japan to expand its African engagement. However, elevated risk perception among Japanese companies could prove to be a complicating factor.
Local Opportunities and Global Disputes: Tracking Japans Engagement with Africa amid Geopolitical Tensions
South African Institute of International Affairs
Small and medium-sized enterprises represent around 80-90% of private sector businesses in the MENA region, and they employ over 50% of the formal workforce in some countries. Of that, new digital startups are only a small part. Despite SMEs’ limited share in national output in MENA compared to other regions, digital transformation is a crucial opportunity for these businesses to benefit from the growing digital economy and provide a remedy to severe youth unemployment and slow economic growth.
As the source of the most employment, this sector should be targeted for greater integration of information and communication technologies (ICT), but businesses often lack the means of both financial support and know-how to increase their use of technology.
Reading of the Week: Assessing the Status of Digital Integration of Small and Medium Sized Enterprises in the Middle East and North Africa
Wilson Center
For weeks, concerns over the risk of miscalculation or even intentional escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have dominated attention. Ramped up cross-border attacks between the two sides on Sunday, August 25 have left each side simultaneously claiming success “for now,” suggesting a much-feared larger conflagration may have been averted in the near term.
However, implications for longer-term risk and mutual deterrence, Iran’s calculations for escalation, and linkage to the still-elusive Gaza cease-fire remain uncertain.
Israel-Hezbollah Contained Escalation Halts Concern Over Broader Mideast War
United States Institute Of Peace
In recent months, as the United States has struggled to deter and degrade the Houthis, Yemen’s United Nations-recognized government has worked to dramatically increase economic pressure on the group. The economy, in particular revenue and liquidity, is the Houthis’ Achilles heel. This is where the group is most vulnerable, and this is exactly where the government in Aden is pressing.
This approach, however, also carries significant risks. In the short term, increasing economic pressure on the Houthis is likely to prompt them to reignite attacks on Saudi Arabia, while in the long term it could make reuniting Yemen into a single state all but impossible.
The Houthis Achilles Heel
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
According to the US Department of Energy, there are fifty minerals that are “critical”—in that they not only serve an essential function in the technologies of the future but are also at a high risk of supply-chain disruption. That risk is due to a number of factors, but one glaring reason is the limited availability or mining of these minerals in the United States. That is increasingly problematic as demand for these minerals rises, considering the role they play in building a green economy globally.
Critical minerals investment must avoid the mistakes of the past in African mining
Atlantic Council
One of Africa’s longest wars shifted toward a conclusion in July when France recognized Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over the Western Sahara. That action, alongside Morocco’s military advantage, effectively will leave the indigenous Sahrawi independence movement with no choice but to eventually settle for some form of autonomy within Morocco.
While this reality will be unsatisfactory for the estimated 173,000 Sahrawis living in refugee camps, their best option, and that of their backer, Algeria, is now to seize the opportunity to negotiate for best-possible peace terms with Morocco.
Western Saharas conflict is over. Negotiating the terms comes next
United States Institute Of Peace
The Guinean junta’s growing repression and intolerance for dissent risk derailing the promised transition back to civilian government while deepening the country’s humanitarian crisis.
A Stagnant Transition in Guinea
Africa Center For Strategic Studies