This Brief seeks to address the lack of systematic, comparable data on Russia’s engagement in West Africa. Such data is crucial for assessing the threat posed by Russian-sponsored FIMI, which often serves as a tool to advance broader strategic objectives in regions where Russia seeks to expand its influence
Shifting alliances in West Africa: Measuring Russian engagement to support counter-FIMI strategies
European Union Institute for Security Studies
The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024 has led many to focus on Russia, and its inability or unwillingness to prioritize Syria due to the conflict in Ukraine. But focusing too much on Russia understates the role that Iran, and more specifically Tehran’s proxies, played in propping up Assad.
Tehrans proxies are on the back foot. An Iran-Russia defense pact could revive them
Breaking Defense
Les relations entre Téhéran et Moscou ont connu un nouvel élan depuis le début de la guerre en Ukraine, passant d'une relation transactionnelle et asymétrique depuis 1991 à la construction d'un véritable partenariat stratégique. Néanmoins, malgré l’approfondissement des coopérations militaire, spatiale, cyber, policière et nucléaire civile, Moscou se montre réticent à s’engager directement aux côtés de Téhéran contre les États-Unis et leurs alliés au Moyen-Orient.
La relation russo-iranienne à lépreuve de lescalade militaire au Moyen-Orient
Institut Français des Relations Internationales
Russian information operations in Africa are a tool to expand Russia’s presence on the continent and to turn African countries into allies of Russia in its confrontation with the West. This article focuses on the ideological content of Russian information influence in African countries-specifically a set of narratives and ideas that Russia seeks to root in the information environment of African countries.
Ideological Agenda of Russian Information Influence in Africa
The Foreign Policy Research Institute
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a pivotal catalyst for global innovation, with the United States at the forefront of the development of this transformative technology amid its ongoing great power rivalry with China. However, a notable concern has emerged: the absence of an explicit conception of AI supremacy that threatens to undermine the US' long-term AI strategy
The Role of the Middle East in the US-China Race to AI Supremacy
Middle East Institute
Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine has not only resurrected the specters of the Korean War in the 1950s and the Cuban Missile Crisis in the 1960s but has also driven a large wedge between Russia and Western nations, creating a rift deeper than any witnessed in recent history. Concurrently, Russia has been forging increasingly strong ties with other nations, including those in the Middle East.
Russias Great Energy Game in the Middle East
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Since 2021, the Russian Orthodox Church has established an expanded presence in Africa, in competition with the Greek Orthodox Church in Alexandria, Egypt. Facing condemnation from the West since its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has sought to expand its influence in Africa with soft power in addition to a military presence in the form of first the Wagner Group and now Africa Corps.
Reading of the Week: Russias Influence in Africa - The Role of the Russian Orthodox Churc
Foreign Policy Research Institute
The 2024 BRICS summit, to be held in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24, will take place amid an increasingly tense geopolitical atmosphere. The crises in the Middle East and Ukraine are likely to dominate the agenda, as member states explore the future of the alliance and their nations’ roles within it.
South-Africa faces new dynamics at BRICS summit
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
À l’issue du 15e sommet des BRICS, qui s’est tenu du 22 au 24 août 2023 à Johannesburg (Afrique du Sud), il a été décidé d’inviter six nouveaux pays à rejoindre cette alliance : l’Argentine, l’Égypte, l’Iran, les Émirats arabes unis, l’Arabie saoudite et l’Éthiopie. En 2024, tous ces pays à l’exception de l’Argentine sont devenus membres des BRICS+.
Il est probable que l’adhésion de ces nouveaux pays, outre des avantages politiques et économiques, contribue à leur développement scientifique et technologique.
La Russie et les nouveaux membres des BRICS. Opportunités et limites d'une coopération scientifique et technologique
Institut Français des Relations Internationales
Since Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, Russia has enjoyed watching the deteriorating situation in the Middle East preoccupy its main adversary, the United States. On April 13, however, Moscow grew concerned when, in retaliation for an attack on the Damascus consulate of Iran, its growing ally, Tehran launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel.
Reading Of The Week: What Russia Wants in the Middle East
Foreign Affairs
As the Israel-Hamas War continues, questions loom as to whether Hezbollah, a strong ally of Hamas and Iran, will enter the fight against Israel. Both regional and international actors remain concerned of escalation as assistance provided by countries like Iran and Russia arrives in the Levant.
A Wagner Group Delivery to Hezbollah: Russia and Iran Reaffirm Mutual Objectives via Proxy Groups
Irregular Warfare Center
China and Russia have had different relations with the Middle East since the mid-20th century. Over the years, their regional involvement has diverged, with Russia focusing on military and energy sectors and China on economic engagement.
China and Russia in the Middle East: Seeking Integration Under a Common Goal
Wilson Center
Recent findings concerning the use of Western technology in weapons used by Russia have raised the issue of the effectiveness of sanctions and export control mechanisms established between 1975 and 1995. However, the global scene today is very different from that of the last decades of the 20th century.
Illicit technology transfers to countries of concern: challenges for the international community
Real Instituto Elcano
Russia's policies and interests in the African continent have evolved over the years. Historic ties inherited as part of the Soviet legacy loosened in the years following the USSR's collapse, with domestic turmoil leading Russia to a strategic withdrawal from Africa.
Russia in Africa: An Atlas
European Parliament
Conflict across the Middle East continues to spiral, and the future US position in the region remains at the forefront of foreign policy discussions. However, this discussion would be incomplete without looking at Russia’s role in the region.
How the Middle East Became an Arena for Putins Power Struggle with the US
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
In August 2023, Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin died after his private jet crashed about an hour after taking off in Moscow. He had been Russia’s pointman in Africa since the Wagner Group began operating on the continent in 2017.
Wagner Group is now Africa Corps. What this means for Russias operations on the continent
The Conversation
For several years, Arab publics across the Middle East have increasingly expressed interest in partnerships with Russia and China amidst almost unanimous negative attitudes towards the United States. The United States’ active support for Israel and the war against Hamas since October 7 have only amplified anti-U.S. sentiment across the region.
With Attention on Gaza, Russia and China Continue Economic and Military Inroads in Arab States
Washington Institute for Near East Policy
In recent years, much attention has focused on the impact of global shocks and crises on African countries. This has included an analysis of the COVID-19 shock (Raga and te Velde, 2020, 2022). Other work examines the impact of food price shocks on food security in African countries (Wiggins, 2022). Our understanding of the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war (RUW) and how it affects Africa’s economic recovery and threatens long-term productivity and social development is currently evolving.
Building resilience in African countries
ODI Emerging Analysis
The mysterious plane crash in which the head of the Wagner Group and nine other people were killed has immediate political and military implications. What is the likely future of the infamous mercenary organization, and is the Putin regime more stable in the aftermath of the event?
The Death of Prigozhin: A Short-Term Threat Removal for Putin?
The Institute for National Security Studies
Over the last decade, China has gradually expanded its presence in the Indian Ocean, combining its military modernization and cooperation with partners with active diplomacy towards the island and coastal states of the region. China’s presence and capabilities threaten the freedom and influence of other actors in the area, including India and the EU.
Reading of the Week: The battle for the Indian Ocean. How the EU and India can strengthen maritime security
European Council on Foreign Ralations
Emboldened by the rise of a multipolar world order, South Africa’s political elite is increasingly caught between its allegiance to traditional Western allies, whose values represent the national ambition and are enshrined in the Constitution of a liberal democratic order, and emerging powers such as China and Russia.
As South Africa looks to Russia, how do citizens see influence of foreign powers?
Afro Barometer
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Russian mercenaries, known as the Wagner Group, while comprising a relatively small part of the Russian forces in general, played an important role in Russia’s war against Ukraine, not only thanks to their military skills, but also due to Prigozhin’s political and media capabilities. Indeed, they have influenced the battlefield and the situation within Russia. On June 23, 2023, increasing friction between Prigozhin, who emerged during the war as an independent anti-establishment political
player (he has no formal position in the establishment), and the Russian military establishment, led to an armed uprising against the militarysecurity leadership, unprecedented in modern Russian history.
Reading of the Week: Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group. The Roots of the Phenomenon and its Effects on Russia following the June 23, 2023 Mutiny
The Institute for National Security Studies
The political, economic, and security relations between Moscow and Tehran have tightened in recent months, and the bilateral ties are expected to deepen even further. How will this affect Israel, and in turn, what should Jerusalem so?
Deepening Economic and Security Ties between Russia and Iran
The Institute for National Security Studies
While the world’s attention is focused on Ukraine, Russia has been steadily expanding its presence in the Middle East, including through its dealings with the Lebanese terrorist group Hizbullah. Although much is still unknown about the full extent of their collaboration, U.S. sanctions designations have revealed a multifaceted and increasingly lucrative relationship that should not be ignored amid other crises.
Hizbullah and Russias Nascent Alliance
The Washington Institute For Near East Policy
In a dramatic development, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russia’s President, who is “allegedly responsible” for war crimes in the conflict with Ukraine. While there is little chance of seeing Putin in court, this precedent has much significance – including potentially for Israel
Putin and The Hague: The Precedent, and the Significance for Israel
The Institute for National Security Studies
Recent weeks have seen growing closeness between China and Iran, which peaked with the signing of several important bilateral agreements and successful Chinese mediation between Beijing and Riyadh. What lies behind this rapprochement and what obstacles lie ahead?
Whither Iran and China? A Limited Partnership, yet Deep and Durable
The Institute for National Security Studies
In the longer term, the increased flow of weapons will likely exacerbate tensions in the region, spur Arab states to enhance their own arsenals, and endanger any U.S. and partner forces that confront Tehran’s proxies.
What the Russia-Iran Arms Deals Mean for the Middle East
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
The activities of a Private Military Company (PMC) traditionally involve 3 other parties: the Contracting State, the Territorial State and the Home State. While Western Contracting States generally recognize the Montreux Document (which reaffirms the international legal obligations of States) and Western PMCs observe the self-regulatory ‘International Code of Conduct’ (which serves as the governance and oversight mechanism), Russian PMCs operate in absence of any regulatory provision or national legal framework.
Strategic priorities for the Russian PMC WAGNER: geopolitics, propaganda and mercenary business
Royal Institute for International Relations
Iranian drone strikes, as exemplified by the September 2019 attack against Saudi Aramco facilities, have jolted Middle East leaders and revealed Tehran’s long-range precision strike capabilities. The regime’s large and growing drone force, which can be used for reconnaissance or strike missions, now poses an existential threat to the Gulf states and a direct threat to Israel, as does its formidable missile force. Moreover, Iranian drones transferred to Russia have had a significant impact on Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
Reading of the Week: Striking Back. Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
American and European allies are mobilizing to thwart the rapid expansion of the Russian paramilitary group known as Wagner, run by a Putin-affiliated oligarch, as it captures key cities for Moscow in Ukraine and spreads its influence to Africa and other corners of the world. With tens of thousands of fighters, many of them now battlefield-trained, the Wagner Group’s emergence as a rogue military threat could become a serious global challenge in years to come, U.S. and European officials said.
Inside the stunning growth of Russias Wagner Group
The Geopost
The Russian army and Russian private military contractors linked to the Kremlin have expanded their global military footprint in Africa, seeking basing rights in a half dozen countries and inking military cooperation agreements with 28 African governments, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War. U.S. officials estimate that around 400 Russian mercenaries operating in the Central African Republic (CAR), and Moscow recently delivered military equipment to support counterinsurgency operations in northern Mozambique.
Russias Footprint in Africa
Center for Security Studies ETH Zurich
In Africa and the Arab World, throughout different stages of the war in Ukraine, the public debate and the popular discourse around it showed substantial sympathy towards Russia. While disinformation played a part in shaping those sentiments, the pro-Russian discourse cannot be reduced to just that. African and Arab social media users tend to adopt pro-Russian narratives on the Ukraine war when they resonate with locally relevant, long-established issues, worldviews, grievances, and prejudices.
Fertile ground: How Africa and the Arab World found common language with Russia on Ukraine
Polish Institute of International Affairs
This edition focuses on the Wagner Group private military company. Firstly, Andreas Heinemann-Grüder summarizes the development of Wagner since 2014/15, highlighting that it operates in coordination with Russian security agencies as a parallel or shadow army that can rarely be held accountable. Secondly, Stephen Aris considers how Wagner’s prominent, if not officially acknowledged, role in the offensive on Ukraine has accelerated a process of semi-privatizing certain functions of state security.
Reading of the Week: Wagner Group
Center for Security Studies ETH Zurich
The fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had major consequences for Russia’s engagement around the world in 2022. West Africa is no exception. Russia has sought to increase its political involvement in Africa since the 2014 invasion of Crimea. But as Russia has become more economically and politically isolated under the increasing weight of Western sanctions, the importance of Africa as a strategically significant region for Russia to engage in, both to facilitate business opportunities and to court political allies, has escalated.
Reading of the week: Russias military, mercenary and criminal interests in West Africa grew in 2022 and look set to expand in 2023
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
Liberal intervention actors often understand Russian engagements in Africa through a great power vacuum logic. This logic sees Russian influence as resulting from Russia filling a vacuum where other (notably liberal) interveners downscale. This article unpacks that vacuum logic and explores its consequences and effects. On the one hand, the vacuum logic is central to representations of Russia as an entirely external ‘other’, which contribute to constituting a ‘liberal’ intervention approach and community.
Liberal interventions renewed crisis: Respponding to Russias growing influence in Africa
Chatham House
The University of Haifa, and the National Security Studies Center hosted a discussion examining Gulf-Russia relations since Russia's invasion of Ukraine.
How Has the Invasion of Ukraine Reshaped Russias Influence in the Middle East?
The Arab Gulf States Institute In Washington