The fall of eastern Congo’s biggest city has sent thousands from their homes and – once again – left the Great Lakes on the edge of a wider war. African mediators with the concerted backing of external partners should move with speed to prevent more fighting
Fall of DRCs Goma: Urgent Action Needed to Avert a Regional War
International Crisis Group
The September floods in the LCB disrupted the lives of millions. Extreme precipitation events since August 2024 have impacted over 4.4 million people in West and Central Africa. According to United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (UNOCHA), the countries most affected include Chad, with 1.5 million people impacted, Nigeria, with over 1.1 million, Niger, with 710,767, and Cameroon, with 409,710.
Flooding and Climate Shocks: Their effect on local economies in The Lake Chad Basin
Policy Center for the New South
La Constitution du Niger promet de protéger les enfants, soulignant le rôle de l'Etat dans la préservation de leur santé physique, mentale et morale. Malgré cet engagement, de nombreux enfants sont confrontés à de dures réalités. Le Niger affiche le 11ème taux de mortalité des enfants de moins de 5 ans le plus élevé au monde, car des maladies évitables (pneumonie, diarrhée, paludisme…) se développent dans un contexte d'accès limité à l'eau potable, à l'assainissement et aux soins de santé.
Les Nigeriens approuvent les chatiments corporels
AFRO Barometer
Sudan’s civil war disrupted the political transition and work of the UN’s former special political mission UNITAMS, forcing it to depart the country. Taking a step back from the current conflict, this report reflects on the Security Council’s attempt to support the protection of civilians in country in the few years preceding the war.
Civilian Protection in Sudan: Emerging Lessons from UNITAMS
Stimson
In rural South Sudan, markets for food, labour and land are expanding, and women’s workloads are increasing. In the twentieth century, most rural women had two main labour burdens: they produced food for home consumption on family farms; and at home provided life-giving labour, like child-rearing, emotional support, cooking and cleaning. These two labour burdens were unpaid. But now, they have a third labour burden.
Reading of the Week: The triple burden: women selling their labour in South-Sudan
Rift Valley Institute
Over the past four years, the human smuggling ecosystem in Chad has continued to evolve and change. The Chadian government, for its part, has increasingly sought to tighten controls on the northbound movement of migrants, perceiving the flow of people as contributing to instability, rebel activity and organized crime in the north as well as in southern Libya.
CHAD Human Smuggling Picks Up Amid Persisting Instability And The Sudan Conflict
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
In July 2023, Niger experienced a significant political shift following a military coup d’état. One of the effects of the coup d’état was the decision of the military authorities to abrogate the unpopular 2015/36 Anti-Smuggling Law adopted in 2015 and implemented since mid-2016.
Nigers Repeal of the 2015/36 Anti-Smuggling Law
Clingendael
Established in 2013 by the UN Security Council, the United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) aimed to stabilize the situation in northern Mali, support the political transition, protect civilians, and promote human rights amidst ongoing conflict and instability. The mission’s mandate evolved over its ten-year tenure to address the changing political and security landscape, leading to its withdrawal at the request of the Malian government in 2023.
Emerging Lessons from MINUSMAs Experience in Mali
International Peace Institute
A multi-sided battle is raging in Sudan’s long-stricken Darfur region. Hostilities centre on El Fasher, capital of North Darfur and home to the Sudanese army’s last stronghold in the region. Thousands of fighters from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is embroiled in a vicious year-long war with the army, control the town’s northern and eastern districts and have encircled the rest.
Halting the Catastrophic Battle for Sudans El Fasher
International Crisis Group
The year 2023 was a crucial year for the Sahel Women’s Empowerment and Demographic Dividend (SWEDD) project. It marked the transition to the SWEDD+ expansion phase, which included the integration of three new countries and the strengthening of funding in two countries.
SWEDD Annual Report
UNFPA
The international community hasn’t been successful in its efforts to support ‘stabilisation’ in the central Sahel. To learn lessons from recent engagement, this policy brief seeks to make three contributions to an already long list of ‘strategic misfits’
Constraints to stabilisation efforts and lesson learned from the Central Sahel
Clingendael
L’engagement de la France au Sahel est le plus souvent analysé à travers un prisme opérationnel qui se concentre sur les interventions ou les capacités militaires mobilisées à partir du déploiement de ses forces spéciales au début des années 2010 jusqu’au retrait définitif des derniers soldats français du Niger en décembre 2023.
Larmée francaise au Sahel: un corpus doctrinal à lépreuve
Institut français des relations internationales
On 8 March, the UN Security Council adopted a UK-drafted resolution calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Sudan during the month of Ramadan, a sustainable resolution to the conflict through dialogue, compliance with international humanitarian law and unhindered humanitarian access.
Sudans forgotten war: A new diplomatic push is needed
Chatham House
This week, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) meets to renew the mandate of the UN Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) for another year. It has been renewed over 13 times since the mission’s inception in 2011, but this time will be vital.
UNMISS is crucial to free and fair elections in South Sudan
Institute for Security Studies
The recent series of unconstitutional changes of government in the Sahel has highlighted the challenges that the EU faces in balancing strategic interests with its commitment to democratic values. It now needs to reassess its strategy in the region.
Time to reshape the EUs engagement
European Union Institute for Security Studies
The conflict in Sudan has a substantial impact on the country’s food system and hinders people’s ability to cope with food shortages. As the country shows the worst hunger level ever recorded during the harvest season, which is usually a period when food is more available, the severity and scale of hunger in the coming lean season, will be catastrophic. This policy brief argues that rather than the inevitable consequence of war, this food crisis is the result of the generals’ deliberate destruction of Sudan’s food system and the obstruction of people’s coping mechanisms.
From Catastrophe to Famine: Immediate action needed in Sudan to contain mass starvation
Clingendael
Chad’s constitutional referendum, scheduled for December 17, is the latest step by General Mahamat Déby’s military junta to stage-manage a transition that maintains the hereditary succession of the Déby dynasty and the military as a central political actor in this country of 18 million people that straddles six neighbors in the volatile Sahel region.
Chads Constitutional Referendum Promises a Transition without Change-or Stability
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
15 October marked six months since the conflict between the SAF and the RSF first broke out in Sudan. The conflict has gradually expanded from the capital Khartoum to Sudan’s provinces, drawing in new actors as rebel groups and ethnic militias choose allies or pursue independent agendas. Peace talks between the SAF and the RSF have thus far failed to contain the fighting, with at least nine ceasefire agreements failing since April due to repeated violations.
Sudan: RSF Expands Territorial Control as Ceasefire Talks Resume in Jeddah
ACLED
Over 180 kidnappings were recorded in the war-torn countries of Mali and Burkina Faso in the first half of 2023, an average of one a day. This aligns with the trend in recent years, which has seen the kidnapping industry expand since 2019, with about 400 victims in each of the two countries every year. Most victims are Sahelian, as communities are caught in the crossfire between conflicting parties.
Reading of the Week: Kidnappings in the Sahel - a favoured weapon of war
Institute For Security Studies
Motorbikes are one of the most widely trafficked commodities in the Sahel, deeply embedded in the Sahelian criminal economy. These trafficking networks are a crucial source for armed groups, particularly in the face of growing restrictions on trade.
Reading of the Week: Motorbikes and armed groups in the Sahel
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
Nguen Monytuil Wejang is one of the longest serving governors in South Sudan. In Unity state, he has maintained his rule by fragmenting the opposition, violently displacing the population, and assembling a diverse political coalition. However, with elections postulated for 2024, and electioneering in full swing, cracks are appearing in Monytuil's control of Unity, with the internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps of Rubkona county transformed into the frontline of a political competition for the state.
The Body Count: Controlling Populations in Unity State
Small Arms Survey
Peacekeeping is getting more dangerous. Illicit arms, ammunition, and explosives are key factors in this increasingly hostile environment. The United Nations needs to adapt to ensure the safety of peacekeepers and their ability to implement mandated tasks. The United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) illustrates both the possible dangers to current missions as well as lessons learned in efforts to mitigate the impact of illicit arms. This brief reviews MINUSMA’s experiences in these regards.
Peacekeeping in hostile environments: The Impact of illicit arms on MINUSMA
UN Institute for Disarmament Research
In the vast semi-arid expanse of West Africas Sahel, a series of military coups have dealt a heavy blow to the regions political stability and democratic transformation, and created a new era of uncertainty and insecurity.
Why West Africa and the Sahel are witnessing a resurgence in coups and political instability
Arab News
In the vast semi-arid expanse of West Africas Sahel, a series of military coups have dealt a heavy blow to the region’s political stability and democratic transformation, and created a new era of uncertainty and insecurity.
Why West Africa and the Sahel are witnessing a resurgence in coups and political instability
Arab News
In June, to the surprise of most UN Security Council members, Mali’s government called on the Council to pull UN peacekeepers out of the country “without delay”. Some diplomats briefly considered options for keeping the UN Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in place, but most greeted the news with a resignation verging on fatalism. Although the precise timing of Bamako’s demand was unexpected, the Malian government had been frank about its loss of trust in the UN.
What Future for UN Peacekeeping in Africa after Mali Shutters Its Mission?
International Crisis Group
The ongoing conflict in Sudan, involving the country's armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has significantly raised concerns for Egypt, its northern neighbour. Not only does Egypt face the impact of a humanitarian crisis spilling over into its borders, but it also navigates a challenging geopolitical landscape as Sudan undergoes a period of instability.
The relationship between Egypt and Sudan has deep historical, cultural, and strategic ties. As Sudan faces internal conflicts, Egypt's role in the country's war becomes increasingly significant.
Harnessing Regional Diplomacy: Egypts Strategic Role in Sudans Conflict Resolution
Brussels International Center
A convergence of entrenched insecurity and climate change is having serious socio-economic implications in South Sudan where humanitarian conditions, including food insecurity, continue to deteriorate. In 2022, 8.9 million people were in need of humanitarian assistance, out of a population of 11 million.
Improving the Prospects for Peace in South Sudan: Spotlight on Measurement
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Inflation in Sudan has averaged 46 percent over the past decade, reaching 359 percent in 2021. Sudan’s history of high inflation suggests that strong inflationary pressures remain an important macroeconomic challenge for the country. Building on the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) 2023 background analysis on the Sources of Inflationary Pressures in Sudan, this Policy Brief identifies and quantifies these pressures over the period 1992-2022 and proposes policy measures to reduce inflation.
Sources of Inflationary Pressures in Sudan
African Development Bank Group
This report summarizes findings from research by ODI, commissioned by the British Red Cross. It explores links between climate change and human mobility in the Sahel, with a specific focus on case studies on Mali and Sudan, highlighting experiences and perceptions from communities. Within the Sahel, migration has long been an important resilience strategy for people’s survival and a way to create new economic opportunities during times of both crisis and stability.
Changing climate, changing realities: migration in the Sahel
Overseas Development Institute
This report assesses risks of exploitation and labour trafficking in gold-mining areas in northern Niger and northern Mali. It examines the modalities of recruitment and employment, the risks they pose to workers and the structural factors that contribute to the vulnerability of gold miners. The report also identifies key opportunities for policy makers to address these risks while recognizing the crucial role of gold mining for local livelihoods and stability.
Reading of the week: Labour-trafficking risks in Sahara-Sahel ASGM
The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
Communal conflicts between farmers and herders in Borgou have multiple driving forces. This report explores one of these: changing land management systems. It is argued that recent changes in land management are in any event likely to become a stronger driver of tensions in Borgou in the near future.
Twilight Institutions: Land conflict and hybrid authorities in Benins Borgou department
Clingendael
Communal conflicts between farmers and herders in Borgou have multiple driving forces. This report explores one of these: changing land management systems. It is argued that recent changes in land management are in any event likely to become a stronger driver of tensions in Borgou in the near future.
Twilight Institutions: Land conflict and hybrid authorities in Benins Borgou department
Clingendael
Since the 15th of April 2023, a conflict between Sudan’s two largest armed actors, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has ravaged the country. Forty-five million civilians stand in the crossfire, their lives threatened by the war. Hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing the country. Sudan’s international partners have both a moral duty and a practical interest in promoting peace in the country. As Sudan’s generals resist international calls for a ceasefire, there is one potential way to stop the fighting: deny the SAF and the RSF the financial resources they need to finance their war efforts.
Reading of the Week: To Stop the War in Sudan, Bankrupt the Warlords
Clingendael
Extremist activities and violence in the centres of conflict in the Sahel (i.e. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger) are moving south towards the four countries of interest of this paper (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal and Togo). At the time of writing, all except Ghana have experienced direct jihadist attacks, and all have reported extremist encroachment and recent increases in refugees, especially from Burkina Faso.
Reading of the Week: The Sahel Conflict: economic and security spillovers on West Africa
Overseas Development Institute
In the global narrative on organized crime, a key sticking point has often been the question of definitions and measurement. How should we define organized crime? What components should be included in its definition? And what are the best ways of measuring it? In the analysis and programming on organized crime, these questions have been a source of some debate. To date, there is no consensus.
Sahel: Why stabilization efforts should address internal displacement
Clingendael
Kidnappings of nationals in Burkina Faso surged to record-breaking levels in 2021 and continued at this unprecedented scale throughout 2022. Non-state armed groups - including, most prominently, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims, known by its Arabic acronym JNIM (Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin) - are central perpetrators. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), kidnappings have increased over 30-fold since 2017, when the security situation in Burkina Faso began to sharply deteriorate (rising from eight incidents in 2017 to 262 in 2021 and 219 in 2022).
Reading of the Week: The silent threat. Kidnappings in Burkina Faso
The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
Since 1948, more than 1,000 UN personnel have been killed in malicious acts while serving in UN peacekeeping operations. Since 2013, the vast majority of fatalities have taken place in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). To address this trend, the UN Secretariat and member states have increasingly focused on strengthening the policy framework on accountability to peacekeepers.
Accountability for Crimes against Peacekeepers
International Peace Institute
Cattle rustling in Mali surged in 2021 and continues at unprecedented levels, with the dominant perpetrators being violent extremist groups operating in the country. The scale of cattle rustling in Mali is the climax of a decade of growth of the practice, and cattle rustling is now a central and under-reported element of the country’s security crisis variously as a driver of conflict, as a governance and intimidation mechanism, and as a key source of revenue for non-state armed groups.
Locked horns: Cattle rustling and Malis war economy
Global Initiative
Le 5 février 2023, le gouvernement malien finit par expulser le directeur de la division des droits de l’homme de la MINUSMA, quelques jours après avoir violemment dénigré la prise de parole dune défenseure des droits humains malienne devant le Conseil de sécurité.Dix ans après la mise en place de la Mission multidimensionnelle intégrée des Nations Unies pour la stabilisation au Mali (MINUSMA), lavenir de celle ci et de ses 15 000 militaires et policiers est plus que jamais incertain. Lopération de paix, autorisée en 2013 dans le sillon de lintervention militaire franco-africaine par un Conseil de sécurité alors uni derrière la « plume » française, est aujourd hui logiquement remise en question dans un contexte de défiance entre les partenaires traditionnels du Mali et les nouvelles autorités du pays.
Reading of the Week: MINUSMA à la carte ou fin de partie géopolitique au Mali
Le Rubicon
The Sahel has been a trade and migration route for centuries. A convenient transit area for products transported by sea from coastal countries, the region has become the epicenter of a growing market for trafficked medical products. Factors such as limited access to quality, safe, effective and affordable medical products, corruption among law enforcement and customs officers and a lack of border controls have contributed to the creation of an environment conducive to trafficking in and beyond the Sahel countries, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and the Niger.
Trafficking In Medical Products In The Sahel
Transnational Organized Crime Threat Assessment
The scale of demand for fuel in the Sahel countries is unclear. The ratio of registered vehicles to people is low and per capita daily gasoline consumption in region is estimated to be among the lowest in the world. The five Sahel countries, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and the Niger, are estimated to consume a combined total of just over 90,500 barrels of motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil (diesel) per day, or just over 33 million barrels per year, which is equivalent to over five billion litres consumed per year
Fuel Trafficking in the Sahel
Transnational Organized Crime Threat Assessment
Cattle rustling in Nigeria has evolved from a sustainable community practice into a significant illicit economy, delivering material profits to conflict actors and multiplying harms. Since 2011, the country has experienced a surge in the number of rustling incidents, resulting in thousands of deaths, loss of livelihoods, widespread destruction and displacement of people. This has had a debilitating impact on the country’s stability, as explored in an earlier report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC).
Driving Destruction, Cattle rustling and instability in Nigeria
Global Initiative
The Islamic State Sahel Province (IS Sahel) is a salafi-jihadist militant group and the Sahelian affiliate of the transnational Islamic State (IS) organization. It is primarily active in the border areas between Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger - known as the tri-state border area, or Liptako-Gourma – but it has also engaged in sporadic activity in Algeria, Benin, and Nigeria. The group’s composition reflects the social fabric in the areas where it is active.
The Islamic State Sahel Province
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data
The present report covers the period from 23 June 2022 to 30 December 2022 and contains an overview of developments and trends in West Africa and the Sahel, and the activities of the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel (UNOWAS). It also highlights progress made in the implementation of the United Nations integrated strategy for the Sahel, and includes an update on the situation in the Lake Chad basin, pursuant to Security Council resolution 2349 (2017).
Activities of the United Nations Office for West Africa and the Sahel
UN Security Council
In late September 2022, Burkina Faso experienced its second coup in eight months. In the name of national security, Captain Ibrahim Traoré took control of the country on 30 September, deposing Paul-Henri Damiba, who had come to power through his own coup in January. Insecurity and the inability of the political class to deal with the jihadist threat are among the determining factors that led to two coups in such a short time. The coups unfolded in a context marked by competition between the European Union (EU) – initially led by France, the traditional European hegemon in the region – and Russia for influence in the Sahel.
The EU vis-à-vis Turmoil in Burkina Faso: Towards Europeanisation?
Istituto Affari Internazionali
In its conclusions of 16 April 2021, the Council defined the European Union’s Integrated Strategy in the Sahel. The Council in particular expressed its concern that the gradual expansion of insecurity and its impact, of which civilian populations are the first victims, has exacerbated a situation of multiple crises, with unprecedented humanitarian consequences in the region, including an increase in the number of internally displaced persons and refugees and forced displacements.
Council Decision - European Union military partnership mission in Niger
Official Journal of the European Union
Having waged deadly violence for over a decade, Boko Haram has survived various interventions by the Lake Chad Basin countries and their partners. The longevity of the group can, in part, be attributed to its continued access to resources. This report explores the economic drivers that reinforce Boko Haram’s resilience, including the key actors involved in these activities.
Reading of the Week Boko Harams deadly business. An economy of violence in the Lake Chad Basin
Institute For Security Studies
The security and humanitarian crisis in the Sahel is staggering into its 10th year. A conflict that began with rebels and allied jihadist groups sweeping out of the desert into northern Mali in 2012 has transformed into a dizzyingly complex cross-border catastrophe hollowing out the heart of West Africa.
Finding a Path through Quagmire
Central for Strategic and International Studies