The decision by the AfCFTA Secretariat to establish the AfCFTA Implementation Review Mechanism (AFIRM) was mainly prompted by concerns relating to states parties’ slow implementation of the AfCFTA Agreement under which full trading was expected to commence in January 2021, which has not yet happened.
The WTOs Trade Policy Review Mechanism: Lessons for the AfCFTA Review Process
South African Institute of International Affairs
Sudan’s civil war continues to rage, with no sign that either the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) or Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) are close to a military victory or open to a ceasefire. Over 10 million civilians are displaced within Sudan or into neighbouring countries. Its economy is in ruins, with business centres transformed into battlefields. Severe hunger afflicts half the population, with famine emerging in Darfur.
Sudan Chad and Libya knit together as illicit markets enable conflict economy
ENACT Africa
Africa’s economic prospects have improved but growth remains fragile amidst multiple global and domestic shocks. The continent’s average real GDP growth is now projected at 3.2% in 2024, compared to 3.0% in 2023. The revised growth outlook represents a downgrade of 0.5 percentage points relative to the May 2024 AEO projections
Africas Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook. November 2024 update
African Development Bank
Saudi Aramco is not only the largest oil producer globally but also the most profitable business, surpassing tech giants like Apple and Microsoft. Aramco is evolving far beyond its traditional role, now positioning itself at the forefront of economic diversification, technological innovation, and sustainability, aligning with the broader vision set forth by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to transform the Saudi economy and reduce its dependence on oil.
Aramcos Diversification Strategy: Fueling Saudi Arabias Vision 2030
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
The 2024 BRICS Summit made steady progress on cross-border payments and a new tier of international partners, signaling a shift in how non-Western nations approach financial cooperation. This year’s Summit reveals BRICS’ pragmatic moves toward a diversified global economy – how will shifting alignments influence the international order?
Reflections After the BRICS Summit: Membership, Payment Systems, and What Lies Ahead
Wilson Center
The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) is a game-changer for Africa's economic development, and Ghana is uniquely positioned to reap the rewards. With a thriving digital economy and proactive government policies, Ghana is ready to embrace the opportunities presented by the AfCFTA's Protocol on Digital Trade.
Advancing AfCFTA digital trade implementation in Ghana
Overseas Development Institute
With the U.S. presidential election heating up, jobs and taxes have become hot topics on the campaign trail. Employment initiatives and tax reform remain salient policy issues in the Gulf too, though the underlying political economy dynamics differ. In July, Oman’s government announced more than 30 new professions that non-Omanis would be prohibited from working in as of September 2. Meanwhile, a draft law on personal income tax – the first ever for a Gulf Cooperation Council country – is making its way through Oman’s Parliament
The bread-and-butter issues of jobs and taxes in the Gulf
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Japan’s relationship with Africa is changing rapidly. While Tokyo has maintained its traditional aid-focused approach to the continent, it is also encouraging more engagement from the Japanese private sector and a stronger focus on critical minerals.These shifts come amid growing tensions between the G7 advanced economies and the People’s Republic of China.
This policy insight shows that concern about Chinese influence in critical mineral supply lines, and its wider involvement in key African sectors like green energy, industrialisation and infrastructure, is leading Japan to expand its African engagement. However, elevated risk perception among Japanese companies could prove to be a complicating factor.
Local Opportunities and Global Disputes: Tracking Japans Engagement with Africa amid Geopolitical Tensions
South African Institute of International Affairs
Public procurement in Arab countries is governed by laws on tendering and related regulations and decrees, which are typically complicated. The central problem is the widening gap between what is stated in the laws and what happens in reality.
Should Arab countries join the WTOs agreement on government procurement?
Economic Research Forum
With trade in goods among Arab countries remaining modest, trade in services could play the pivotal role of an engine of growth in economic integration within the region, as well greater participation in global value chains. This column outlines progress to date and what needs to be done to make a success of AFTAS, the Arab free trade area in services.
Can a free trade area in services boost trade within the Arab region?
Economic Research Forum (ERF)
The Guided Trade Initiative (GTI) of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) was launched on 7 October 2022 in response to the growing demand for trading under the AfCFTA to start. It was designed as an interim trading arrangement to test the provisions of the AfCFTA, to identify challenges and bottlenecks and to help maintain the political momentum behind as well as public support for the Agreement.
Nigerias participation in the Guided Trade Initiative
Supporting Investment & Trade in Africa (SITA)
The May 2024 Chief Economists Outlook launches amid a mood of cautious optimism about the global economy. Uncertainty persists, but signs of brightening are reflected in the latest survey, with a sharp fall in the share of chief economists expecting global conditions to weaken this year, from 56% in January to 17%.
Chief Economists Outlook
World Economic Forum
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is up for renewal this year. AGOA is a cornerstone of US-Africa economic relations, and has enjoyed bipartisan support for nearly a quarter century. But it's showing its age. A lot has changed since Bill Clinton signed the bill back in 2000—not least, the rise of China as a global manufacturing powerhouse.
Nine Ideas to Improve AGOA
Center For Global Development
Almost six months after the launch of their operations in the Red Sea, the Yemeni rebels, known as Houthis, continue to keep global trade hostage. This is despite a number of Western operations to contain and degrade the threat they managed to pose, with missiles and drones continuing to be fired at commercial ships who try to cross the Red Sea towards the Suez Canal and the Mediterranean.
Taking Stock of Aspides: A Step Forward in Europes Geopolitical Role in the Red Sea?
Brussels International Center
Diversifying the economy away from oil is one of the key goals of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program. Data from 2022 indicated that progress was being made toward a more diversified economy. Similarly, developments in exports, output, government revenue, and employment show that, across most metrics, further progress was made during 2023, although oil is still the dominant force in the Saudi economy
Continued Progress in Saudi Economic Diversification
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
The Arab Business Legislative Frameworks (ABLF) series report offers a comprehensive assessment of 22 Arab countries covering five key legislative fields that influence the business environment in the Arab region, specifically competition, consumer protection, anti-corruption, foreign direct investment (FDI), and corporate law.
The Arab Business Legislative Frameworks
United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
In this paper we explore policy actions that the United States could take to give African economies a “final” and plausible shot at export-led industrialization. Specifically, we examine opportunities to expand the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which is due for renewal by 2025.
Long-Distance Industrial Policy for Africa
Center for Global Development
Women are a powerful engine for international trade and economic growth. As workers, small-scale traders, entrepreneurs, and producers, their engagement in export activities has the potential not only to elevate overall productivity and competitiveness in the international market but also to reduce poverty.
Women, International Trade, and the Law: Breaking Barriers for Gender Equality in Export-Related Activities
World Bank Group
After an almost two-year lull, sub-Saharan African issuers are clawing their way back into international markets. In close succession, Côte d’Ivoire, Benin, and Kenya issued $4.85 billion worth of Eurobonds in the first quarter of 2024. The bond offerings were as much as six times oversubscribed, in a sign that investor demand for riskier frontier market debt is back.
Is Sub-Saharan Africas Credit Crunch Really Over?
Center for Global Development
Improving the processing and trade of African wood and wood products (WWPs) has long been a focus for African policymakers because it stimulates multiple benefits for the African continent, including the creation of jobs, investment, and revenues.
Regional timber trade flows and trends in Africa
African Development Bank Group
State-run oil giant Saudi Aramco announced last week that the Saudi government had directed it to pause plans to increase the company’s maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) for crude oil production to 13 million barrels per day (Mb/d). The expansion program had aimed to reach that target by 2027, rising from the current MSC of 12 Mb/d, with work already underway on a number of oilfields.
Want Power in the Oil Market? Hold Spare Capacity!
Baker Institute for Public Policy
Across Africa, the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC) has documented the proliferation of synthetic drugs ranging from synthetic opioids to methamphetamines and synthetic cannabinoids, the resulting transformation of several drugs markets and the escalation of drug-related harm.
The challenge of responding to synthetic drug markets through the lens of tramadol in West-Africa
The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
According to the news sources, Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso have announced they are leaving the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), a regional bloc that promotes economic integration and political stability. The three countries are led by military juntas that have been suspended from the bloc for failing to restore democratic rule. They said it was a sovereign decision to withdraw from ECOWAS and plan to form a new confederation that will deepen their ties
West Africa trade will take a hit as Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso leave Ecowas
The Conversation
The six member states of the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf (commonly known as the Gulf Cooperation Council, or the GCC) stand at a pivotal juncture amid shifting superpower dynamics. An ascending China and a resurgent Russia in the region coupled with a perceived US retreat from the Middle East add to this changing landscape, increasing the GCC’s need to hedge its bets.
EU-GCC Relations
European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is likely to become the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund by the end of the decade, but raising the resources to fund its ambitious domestic investment program may increase economic and financial risks.
Going Big: Assessing the Growth Ambitions of the Saudi Public Investment Fund
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW)
The digital revolution has become a cornerstone of economic diversification efforts in emerging markets, particularly in countries seeking to reduce their dependence on oil and gas production. Among these nations, the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia stand out for their ambitious smart city initiatives, integral to their broader strategies for economic transformation.
Transformational implications of moving toward smart cities in the Gulf
Middle East Institute
While much of the world’s attention was focused on the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, the UN Security Council’s sanctions on the development and export of Iranian missiles quietly expired on October 18. The sanctions were part of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which set the specific terms for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program in July 2015.
Expiration of UN Missile Sanctions Has Limited Effect on Irans Arms Trade
The JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION
This policy brief argues in favour of greater consideration of gender issues and women’s economic empowerment in natural resource value chains, to make value chain interventions more resilient and inclusive. There is a growing consensus that considering and addressing gender issues in value chains development is not only a matter of fundamental rights and equality but also a way to stimulate economic growth.
Gender Equality and Womens Empowerment in Natural Resources Value Chains - Key Issues
African Natural Resources Management and Investment Centre
West Africa has become a hotspot for the trafficking of medical products, with estimations that the illicit market makes up to 80% of medical products in Burkina Faso and Guinea, the two case studies of this report. Despite its enormous scale, there are gaps in knowledge that this report seeks to address by providing a qualitative analysis of the market’s key characteristics and enablers (corruption and insecurity), and an assessment of national and regional responses.
Reading of the Week: Bad Pharma - Trafficking illicit medical products in West Africa
ENACT Africa
This paper examines debt sustainability in Jordan. First, it notes Jordan’s economic trajectory, which has been characterized by long stop-go cycles; real GDP per capita peaked in the early 1980s followed by a precipitous decline in 1992, then peaked again in the early 2010s and has since declined to levels last seen in the early 2000s. Second, these long swings have been associated with increasing reliance on international support. Much of this international support has contributed to increasing levels of public debt, the composition of which is shifting from domestic to external browning – something that should be examined against the exchange rate that has remained pegged for three decades. Third, due to unprecedented high rates of economic growth during the 2000s, the debt-to-GDP ratio was reduced by half during the 2000s even though the debt level doubled.
Assessing the Sustainability of Jordans Public Debt: The Importance of Reviving the Private Sector and Improving Social Outcomes
Economic Research Forum
Launched in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) a global infrastructure and development strategy that aims to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe through a network of land and maritime trade routes, was a significant turning point in China’s foreign policy and has become one of the most ambitious and far-reaching development initiatives in history.
A Decade of Chinas Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East
The National Interest
Polling data from across the Arab world suggests a growing disillusionment with democracy and its role in fostering economic development. While such disillusionment is understandable, it is not necessarily accurate. This paper reviews analytic work and empirical data on governance, economic growth, foreign direct investment, and export diversification in an effort to understand whether metrics of “voice and accountability” are correlated with higher levels of economic growth and performance.
Voice, Accountability, and Economic Growth in the MENA Region
Middle East Council on Global Affairs
Artisanal and small-scale gold mining (ASGM) offers a multitude of positive development outcomes for communities and the broader population when practised responsibly and with transparent access to global gold markets. However, under the control of kleptocratic networks and foreign nationals jockeying for position to maximize profits, the gold sector in South Sudan is currently characterized by corruption and criminality.
Tarnished Hope: Crime and corruption in South Sudans gold sector
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
This paper applies a finite mixture model to a sample of 92 developing countries over the period 1995-2018 to investigate the relationship between financial development and economic complexity. Economic complexity refers to the amount of productivity knowledge that a country accumulates. The study posits that the effect of financial development on economic complexity differs across groups of countries with similar but unobserved characteristics. The study finds that the effect of financial development on economic complexity varies across four classes of countries, which differ according to their level of economic, political, and financial stability.
Financial Development and Economic complexity: The Role of Country Stability
African Development Bank Group
Polling data from across the Arab world suggests a growing disillusionment with democracy and its role in fostering economic development. While such disillusionment is understandable, it is not necessarily accurate.This paper reviews analytic work and empirical data on governance, economic growth, foreign direct investment, and export diversification in an effort to understand whether metrics of “voice and accountability” (which are often used as proxies for democratic development) are correlated with higher levels of economic growth and performance.
Voice, Accountability, and Economic Growth in the MENA Region
Middle East Council On Global Affairs
Despite the growing importance of services in the global economy, Europe’s trade cooperation with Africa is almost exclusively focused on commodities and other primary goods. Services – which range from banking and insurance to transport – are largely missing from Europe’s trade and development cooperation agenda with Africa.
Tricks of the trade: Strengthening EU-African cooperation on trade in services
European Council on Foreign Relations
This work empirically examines China’s growing footprint in Sub-Saharan Africa’s investment, trade, cultural, and security landscape over the past two decades. It highlights China’s increasing appetite for Sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources and growing young labor force-identifying the region’s consumer market as an important destination for Chinese goods and services over the next few decades.
China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reaching far beyond natural resources
Atlantic Council
Germany and the EU plan to import hydrogen and its derivatives from the Arab Gulf states. Although Germany has signed a joint declaration of intent with the Sultanate of Oman to this end, its efforts focus primarily on Oman’s larger neighbors. However, it would be a mistake to overlook Oman’s potential role within German and European energy policy, geostrategy, and climate diplomacy. Oman’s ambitious hydrogen plans can provide Germany and the EU with affordable clean energy; and enhanced (trade) relations with the Sultanate align with a value-based approach to trade, support global climate action, and stabilize regional power balances.
Omani Hydrogen for Germany and the EU
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
The world has entered a second space age dominated by commercial actors and a new geopolitical struggle. While advances in technology and commercialization are moving at rocket speed, regulation is falling catastrophically behind. International space policy has so far been dominated by the world´s greater powers but there are now obvious steps Denmark and other small states can take to assume a more responsible stance in space governance.
Governing Outer Space: Legal issues mounting at the final frontier
Danish Institute for International Studies
The growing competition between the West and China over the chips manufacturing market is perceived as “the Cold War of the 21st century.” How does this technology struggle between the global blocs affect Israel, and what measures should Israel take?
The Chips Alliance: How will the Global Technology War Affect Israel?
The Institute for National Security Studies
Liberia exhibits a high reliance on imports of staple foods which is worsened by vulnerability to market shocks, supply chain disruptions and global food-price volatility, especially due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. The Liberia Food and Agriculture Delivery Compact outlines a plan increase local productivity in four priority value chains-rice, rubber, cassava and livestock - in order to reduce reliance on imports and provide an essential platform for interministerial coordination in agriculture.
Liberia Country Food and Agriculture Delivery Compact
African Development Bank Group
‘If, as Herodotus stated, Egypt is the gift of the Nile, then it is a gift largely delivered by donkeys.’ Some 7 000 years ago in East Africa, Nubian and Somalian donkeys and their new pastoralist owners planted the seeds of early global trade and travel. The donkey (Equus asinus) was gradually adopted as a domesticated species beyond Eastern Africa, in Egypt and Sudan, and across the African continent and Eurasia.
China, Africa and the market for donkeys: Keeping the cart behind the donkey
The South African Institute for International Affairs
As part of its mission, the Infrastructure Consortium for Africa tracks investments in infrastructure on the African continent, by country and by source of financing. The objective is to follow trends and to identify ways in which the amount of financing for sustainable infrastructure can be increased in the transport, water and sanitation, energy, and ICT sectors in Africa.
Infrastructure Financing Trends in Africa 2019-2020
African Development Bank Group
This paper offers an overview and explanation of international gas contracts, of which there are several types along the value chain. The key objective of this paper is to focus on two specific categories of long-term agreements for gas and liquefied natural gas (LNG) sales, namely Gas Supply Agreements for pipeline gas (GSAs) and Sale and Purchase Agreements for LNG (LNG SPAs).
International Gas Contracts
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
The last 20 years have seen the proliferation of export processing zones (EPZs) globally. About 5,400 EPZs were in existence as of 2019, with about 1,400 of them less than five years old. Since their introduction in the 1920s, EPZs have changed significantly, offering various scales of domestic sales and incentives. Many African countries including Ghana joined the bandwagon.
Sustainable Export Processing Zones Development in Ghana: An Ecosystem and Benchmarking Report
African Center for Economic Transformation
The Hydrogen Action Pact aims to strengthen joint action on power-to-X (electricity storage through conversion into hydrogen), hydrogen and derivatives (especially ammonia), and to streamline the implementation of existing multilateral initiatives. This report briefly summarizes the status and outlook for hydrogen in each G7 member, including analyses of technology, costs, strategy and stated policy support for each country.
Accelerating Hydrogen Deployment in the G7: Recommendations for the Hydrogen Action Pact
International Renewable Energy Agency
The Trade and Development Report 2022 warns that monetary and fiscal policy moves in advanced economies risk pushing the world towards global recession and prolonged stagnation, inflicting worse damage than the financial crisis in 2008 and the COVID-19 shock in 2020.
Trade and Development Report 2022
United Nations Conference for Trade and Development
This paper investigates inflation risks for 12 Middle East and Central Asia countries, with an equal share of commodities exporters and importers. The empirical strategy leverages the recent developments in the estimation of macroeconomic risks and uses a semi-parametric approach that balances well flexibility and robustness for density projections. Following the COVID 19 shock, price pressures have intensified in most countries as demand recovered from the pandemic, supply chain distortions persisted, and commodity prices surged (IMF, 2021). Headline inflation has spiked, while core inflation the change in the prices of goods and services excluding food and energy has started to rise as well.
Inflation at Risk in in the Middle East, North Africa, and Central Asia
International Monetary Fund
Over the past decade, trade between the Republic of Korea (Korea) and Africa has been in decline, having peaked in 2011. This has mainly been on account of reduced Korean exports to Africa, although imports from the region have also declined, albeit by less. Meanwhile, Africa has begun implementing the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), whose objective is to increase both intra-African trade and trade with the rest of the world.
Developments in Africas Free Trade Area-Opportunities for Korean Investors
South African Institute Of International Affairs
Korea’s export trade with Africa declined during the 2010s, although growth in its shipping, locomotive and automotive exports in the early 2020s has been encouraging.
Developments in Africas Free Trade Area: Opportunities for Korean Investors
The South African Institute of International Affairs
The EU’s announced ban on Russian oil imports is a strong political measure that will heavily impact international energy markets, restricting the supply of 4.1 million barrels per day (mbd) of oil and derivates to a market which is a net importer of 10.72 mbd.
The De-Globalisation of Oil Risks and Implications from the Politicisation of Energy Markets
Istituto Affari Internazionali (IAI)
In comparison with other regions, such as Asia and Europe, Africa’s participation in the digital economy is relatively limited. However, the growing demand for e-commerce, combined with pandemic-related restrictions, has highlighted the significance of digitalization for the African continent. Perhaps more importantly, the pandemic has brought to light the deep digital divide that exists between developed and developing countries.
African Participation in WTO E-Commerce Negotiations: Policy Positions and Development Issues
The South African Institute of International Affairs (SAIIA)
For decades prior to the ongoing conflict, Yemen had been vulnerable to recurring budget deficits due to a lack of meaningful fiscal reform, high recurrent expenditures – mainly public sector salaries and fuel subsidies – and an overdependence on oil revenues. While foreign debt obligations remained low, the debt market was poorly diversified, with treasury bill holders narrowly concentrated within the banking sector and government bonds held almost exclusively by public pension funds.
Addressing the Crushing Weight of Yemens Public Debt
SANAA Center for Strategic Studies
Since renewing diplomatic relations between Jerusalem and Rabat, the scope of trade indeed has grown between the two countries, but the full potential still has not been realized. How can the economic cooperation be improved, which also entails many policy opportunities for both Israel and Morocco?
A Gateway to Africa? Economic Opportunities in Israel-Morocco Relations
Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
Mining and the illicit trade in minerals have long been the source of social and environmental upheaval in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and coltan, a mineral essential to modern electronics, has become a particular focus of criminal networks. This study reveals a network of organised crime involved in the production and supply chain of coltan, and its connections to legitimate businesses in advanced economies. It raises awareness of the implications of this illicit trade and suggests multi-stakeholder interventions to prevent criminal networks from operating in the Great Lakes Region.
Mining and Illicit Trading of Coltan in the Democratic Republic of Congo
Enhancing Africa's Response to Transnational Organised Crime (ENACT)
The African Continental Free Trade Area has the potential to be the launching pad for accelerated and more sustainable industrialisation in Africa through greater market access and expanded intraregional trade.However, there are many supply-side constraints to Africa's industrialisation efforts, including poor infrastructure on the continent and limited capacity in technological development and innovation. These shortcomings need to be addressed in a new, Africa-wide industrial policy.
Leveraging the AfCFTA Under a Unified Industrial Policy for Africa
South African Institue of International Affairs (SAIIA)
The African Continental Free Trade Area has the potential to be the launching pad for accelerated and more sustainable industrialisation in Africa through greater market access and expanded intraregional trade.However, there are many supply-side constraints to Africa's industrialisation efforts, including poor infrastructure on the continent and limited capacity in technological development and innovation. These shortcomings need to be addressed in a new, Africa-wide industrial policy.
Leveraging the AfCFTA Under a Unified Industrial Policy for Africa
South African Institue of International Affairs (SAIIA)
RANE's Network Intelligence Report seeks to highlight key areas of risk and opportunity relevant, including issues related to safety and security.
Network Intelligence Report: Special Supply Chain Issue
Risk Assitance Network + Exchange (RANE)
This paper seeks to understand the potential for existing NBS-centered initiatives to better incorporate climate adaptation, thereby contributing to broader adaptation efforts needed to combat the climate emergency.
The Potential for Narute Based Solutions Initiatives to Incorporate and Scale Climate Adaptation
World Resources Institute