The Iranian economy is presently in crisis, which is reflected in a few basic indicators such as the inflation, economic growth and exchange rates. Official annual inflation has been above 30% since 2018, which has pushed a large segment of the middle class into poverty by undermining their purchasing power.
Approaching the precipe: Near-term prospects of Irans economy
Clingendael
The sudden collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s government in December 2024 has led many to focus on Russia, and its inability or unwillingness to prioritize Syria due to the conflict in Ukraine. But focusing too much on Russia understates the role that Iran, and more specifically Tehran’s proxies, played in propping up Assad.
Tehrans proxies are on the back foot. An Iran-Russia defense pact could revive them
Breaking Defense
As Donald Trump prepares to take office again, a unique opportunity to influence Iran’s direction arises by renewing the combination of effective pressure and robust negotiations, mainly aimed at a permanent detailed weaponization ban, while providing Tehran with possible domestic benefits.
Could the Fall of Assad and the Return of Trump Lead to a Better Deal with Iran?
War on the Rocks
The outcome of Iran’s massive April 13 and October 1 strikes on Israel has raised questions about the utility of its missile force and the military strategy built around it. In the April strike, Iran launched an estimated 110-130 ballistic missiles at Israel.
Can Iran Restore Its Missile Mojo?
The Washington Institute
Les relations entre Téhéran et Moscou ont connu un nouvel élan depuis le début de la guerre en Ukraine, passant d'une relation transactionnelle et asymétrique depuis 1991 à la construction d'un véritable partenariat stratégique. Néanmoins, malgré l’approfondissement des coopérations militaire, spatiale, cyber, policière et nucléaire civile, Moscou se montre réticent à s’engager directement aux côtés de Téhéran contre les États-Unis et leurs alliés au Moyen-Orient.
La relation russo-iranienne à lépreuve de lescalade militaire au Moyen-Orient
Institut Français des Relations Internationales
On 29 November, the deputy foreign ministers of Iran, France, Germany and the UK (the latter three known together as the E3) are due to meet in Geneva to discuss a range of security issues in the Middle East - including, apparently, the Iranian nuclear programme.
A Window of Opportunity on the Iran Nuclear File
The Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies
In February 2011, a group of teenagers in the southern Syrian city of Daraa spray painted a message on their high school wall, calling for the regime of President Bashar al-Assad to step down. Their arrest set off a chain of events that sparked a countrywide uprising a month later, with Syrians demanding political and economic reforms.
Sanctions on Syria: Irans Economic Gains and the Gulf-U.S. Divide
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
For many years, Israel and Iran maintained an uneasy equilibrium of mutual deterrence and limited hostility. Iran had built up a “forward defense” strategy of allied Arab militias that it was satisfied could deter Israel and would keep the Iranian homeland safe. Israel was worried about this militia network - especially Hezbollah in Lebanon - but largely coexisted with those irritants and figured that neither would launch a major offensive attack.
The Middle Easts changing strategic landscape
Middle East Institute
The longstanding shadow conflict between Iran and Israel has entered a new, more dangerous phase of open confrontation. For decades, both nations engaged in covert operations and proxy warfare in what was known as the “campaign between wars.” Hamas’ devastating attack on Israel on Oct. 7, 2023, upended this dynamic.
Will Iran Withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty?
Texas National Security Review
Several Israeli attacks on Hezbollah communication systems, aerial attacks on its rocket launchers and caches, assassination of much of the movement’s top leadership and now an Israeli ground offensive form a macabre dance with assaults in the form of relentless Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel, as well as a direct Iranian missile attack more recently. The air hangs heavy with threats of retaliation.
The elusive Israeli quest for strategic victory
Fanack
A new public opinion poll finds the Iranian population in overwhelming, if contradictory, agreement: a majority say the country’s economic problems stem from the Islamic Republic’s foreign policy decisions, while citizens favor a continued Iranian military presence in the Middle East, approve of a new nuclear agreement with Western powers, and seek to normalize diplomatic relations with the US.
Key takeaways from new polling on Irans foreign policy and regional role
Middle East Institute
The continued lack of decisive action from Iran, while Israel steadily “salami sliced" the leadership of the Axis of Resistance, risked diminishing Iran’s influence in the region and over its partners and proxies
Why Iran Struck Israel Despite the Risks
Stimson
A year after Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack in southern Israel, the Middle East is on the cusp of all-out war. Since Israel launched its military response in Gaza, the Biden administration has tried both to broker a ceasefire there and to manage the risk of regional escalation. But the lack of a Gaza deal has fuelled hostilities elsewhere, and today the regional containment effort is at grave risk.
Reading of the Week: A Wider Middle East War Can Still Be Stopped
International Crisis Group
During the last year and a half, Iran has reportedly reactivated and accelerated activities at two former Amad Plan sites that were key to Iran’s development of nuclear weapons during its crash nuclear weapons program in the early 2000s, according to Western intelligence officials who decided to release officially the information to the Institute on the condition of remaining anonymous. The two sites, Sanjarian and Golab Dareh, were central to the Amad Plan’s development of a sophisticated multipoint initiation (MPI) system.
Renewed activity at the Sanjarian Amad site
Institute for Science and International Security
In July, Iran and the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) resumed diplomatic relations after eight years of a bilateral nadir. The agreement was already signed in October 2023, but the new Iranian ambassador, Hassan Shah Hosseini, was only received by SAF’s chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan, who dispatched a Sudanese ambassador to Tehran more than half a year later.
A New Old Player in Town: Reconciliation between Sudan and Iran and its Regional Implications
Brussels International Center
Internet filtering and the widespread use of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) have become one of Iran’s most significant challenges, especially since the administration of the late President Ebrahim Raisi, when these practices expanded and grew more complex. With the inauguration of a new government following the July 2024 election of President Masoud Pezeshkian, one of the most pressing questions among the public is whether the administration has both the will and the ability to end the nation’s reliance on VPNs.
The VPN Epidemic in Iran: A Digital Plague Amid Global Isolation
Stimson
Masoud Pezeshkian, a former heart surgeon, took the oath of office before the Iranian Parliament on July 30, a day after he received an endorsement for the presidency from Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Iranians hope that the reformist president will be able to make good on his mandate to carry out social and economic reforms and alleviate some of the pain that sanctions have wrought on the country’s economy and left it with few allies.
Irans New President Takes the Oath With Promise of Reform and Outreach
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Since the United States atomic bombing of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, humankind has been acquainted with new meanings of catastrophic conflict and “total war.” Until now, however, before Russian aggressions against Ukraine and prospective Iranian wars against Israel, the tangible portents of a “final epidemic” have seemed more-or-less manageable. What next?
Madness and World Politics: Risks of a Nuclear War
Modern Diplomacy
On July 20, Israel responded to a deadly Houthi drone attack in Tel Aviv with heavy airstrikes on the Yemeni port of Hodeida, destroying most of the site’s oil storage tanks. On one hand, this targeting choice reflects crucial gaps in the international community’s policy toward the group. On the other hand, Hodeida is also a crucial entry point for humanitarian aid, so targeting its infrastructure has negative repercussions for the Yemeni people.
To Stop Israeli Attacks on Yemen, Enforce Sanctions on the Iran-Houthi Link
The Washington Institute
Iran’s presidential elections ended with heart surgeon and moderate “reformist” Masoud Pezeshkian winning by a margin of 3 million votes against hardliner Saeed Jalili. The elections were called to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a mysterious helicopter crash in late May. The July 5 runoff followed a first-round vote on June 28 with record low turnout and inconclusive results.
Monday Briefing: How significant is reformist candidate Pezeshkians victory in Irans presidential vote?
Middle East Institute (MEI)
As the Israel-Hamas War continues, questions loom as to whether Hezbollah, a strong ally of Hamas and Iran, will enter the fight against Israel. Both regional and international actors remain concerned of escalation as assistance provided by countries like Iran and Russia arrives in the Levant.
A Wagner Group Delivery to Hezbollah: Russia and Iran Reaffirm Mutual Objectives via Proxy Groups
Irregular Warfare Center
A little over a year ago, the icy relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia underwent a remarkable thaw. Following a handshake between their foreign ministers in Beijing, the two countries restored diplomatic ties, reopened their respective embassies, and dispatched a flurry of high-level visits to each other’s capitals.
Beyond guns and oil: The emerging soft power rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia
Middle East Institute
On June 5, behind closed doors, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s Board of Governors voted overwhelmingly to demand that Iran take urgent action to resolve concerns about its nuclear work and fully cooperate with IAEA requests. The resolution was proposed by Britain, France, and Germany.
IAEA Censure Risks Iranian Escalation
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
After the registration period for Iranian presidential candidates ended on June 3, Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi stated that 80 individuals had applied to run in the June 28 emergency election to replace the late Ebrahim Raisi. Presumably, he was only counting serious registrants, as past elections have drawn vastly more hopefuls.
Most of Irans Latest Presidential Aspirants Have a Domestic Background
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
In recent months, as Iran has approached the nuclear threshold and shortened the times for producing nuclear weapons, and as the monitoring by the International Atomic Energy Agency over the nuclear facilities has significantly declined, Iran could likely decide to change its policy and achieve nuclear weapons capability.
The Iranian Nuclear Strategy-Is It About to Change?
The Institute for National Security Studies
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were killed on Sunday in a helicopter crash while returning from Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. The president’s death, along with that of one of his closest officials, comes at a very delicate time for the Islamic Republic, which has faced numerous domestic and international challenges over the past year.
Reading of the Week: Iran after Raisi: what comes next?
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale
Iran’s decision to launch a direct, state-on-state attack against Israel on April 13 increased the risk of overt conventional conflict in the Middle East. This attack was significant in scope, scale, and complexity, employing hundreds of one-way attack drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.
How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Irans Attack?
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Iran’s unprecedented attack on Israel on April 13 has significantly escalated the tensions between the countries. For the first time, a declared and extensive Iranian military operation was carried out on Israeli territory. Now, the decision on how to respond rests with Israel. A direct war between the two countries now no longer seems unlikely.
The enormous risks and uncertain benefits of an Israeli strike against Iran’s nuclear facilities
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists
Iran has emerged as important player in regional power politics. With growing offensive posture in the Persian Gulf, Red Sea, and the broader region, Iran has exhibited capability to impart its influence at regional as well as global level
Irans Growing Assertive Posture and Its Role in Maritime Domain
Modern Diplomacy
Iran’s direct drone and missile attack on Israel that lasted several hours on Saturday evening has changed the long-established terms of engagement between the two adversarial states. It has also taken the Middle East closer to a wider conflict that if uncontained will have serious and destabilizing ripple effects across the region.
Irans attack on Israel was not the failure many claim but it has ended Israels isolation
Chatham House
The Israeli attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, which killed seven senior military officials, was not the first time Israel has killed Iranian generals. It was uniquely audacious in that Israel struck a building claimed by Iran as a diplomatic facility.
Reading of the Week: Iran Carefully Weighs Response to Israeli Attack in Damascus
Stimson Center
The government reported a participation rate of 41% in the 2024 parliamentary vote, an estimated 25 million people casting votes. However, due to press and media censorship, as well as the absence of independent observers, it is challenging to verify the authenticity of these statistics, as was the case in previous elections.
Irans Faustian 2024 Elections: Statistics Tell the Story
Stimson
For decades, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been on opposing ends of regional conflicts, fueled by sectarian and ideological differences as well as geopolitical jostling. The involvement of regional and global powers further complicated this rivalry.
Why the Saudi-Iranian Pact Is Withstanding the Gaza War
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
In September 2022, the death of Mahsa Amini marked a major turning point for Iran. Her death sparked nationwide protests that rapidly evolved from calls to discard controversial hijab regulations to calls for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. The Clingendael blog series Iran in transition explores power dynamics in four critical dimensions that have shaped the country’s direction since: state-society relations, intra-elite dynamics, the economy, and foreign relations.
The Sepah: Guardian Of Its Self-Interests Since 1979
Clingendael
On March 1, 2024, the Islamic Republic of Iran will hold elections for the sixth term of the Assembly of Experts. The major responsibility of this 88-member body is to designate the future supreme leader after the current leader’s death or when he becomes incapable of fulfilling the position’s responsibilities. At present, there is no verified information about the health of 84-year-old Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. However, since the sixth Assembly of Experts will continue its term until 2032, this next assembly may very well be charged with designating Khamenei’s successor, if the Islamic regime continues to rule Iran until then.
Moving to a post-Khamenei era: The role of the Assembly of Experts
Middle East Institute
Tehran has previously been able to conduct a “hidden-hand operation” via the Houthis at a very low cost, but that price may now be set to rise if allied counter-strikes continue.
Irans Revolutionary Guard Deployed in Yemen
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Skirmishes on the Israel-Lebanon border have been bloody but within bounds and attacks on U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq by Iran-backed groups have led to calibrated U.S. retaliation. Iran retains a potential trump card, however, in the form of its advancing nuclear program.
Will the Gaza War Affect Irans Nuclear Strategy?
Stimson
While much of the world’s attention was focused on the outbreak of the Israel-Hamas war, the UN Security Council’s sanctions on the development and export of Iranian missiles quietly expired on October 18. The sanctions were part of UN Security Council Resolution 2231, which set the specific terms for the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program in July 2015.
Expiration of UN Missile Sanctions Has Limited Effect on Irans Arms Trade
The JAMESTOWN FOUNDATION
America’s inability to rein in Tehran’s nuclear program after exiting the 2015 nuclear deal — to halt the Islamic Republic’s subsequent accumulation of fissile material and to forge a “longer and stronger” deal — should prompt Washington to reassess its Iran policy. Such a reckoning should acknowledge that the United States has never used all of the implements in its policy toolkit to rein in Iran’s nuclear ambitions, while the tools it has generally relied on — diplomacy, sanctions, and (to a much lesser extent) the threat of force — are less effective today due to a shifting geopolitical landscape.
Americas Failing Iran Nuclear Policy: Time for a Course Adjustment
War on the Rocks
In recent months Iran has been engaged in a campaign to improve its standing in Asia, Africa, and Latin America in various countries that are not aligned with the West. Will this help Iran mitigate its international isolation and alleviate the sanctions regime?
Irans Global Diplomatic-Economic Campaign
The Institute for National Security Studies
What Washington considers de-escalation, Tehran sees as an opportunity to consolidate its nuclear gains, avoid accountability, and position itself to cross the nuclear weapons threshold at a time of its choosing.
Irans Nuclear Diplomacy: Feint and Advance
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Of all the challenges to Saudi Vision 20301 Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmans (MBS) high-stakes plan for life after oil arguably none is greater than Irans threat to Saudi national security. To succeed, MBS must protect the kingdom, which will require not only fortifying its defenses against further Iranian and Houthi attacks but also establishing a level of deterrence against Tehran.
Saudi Arabias Deterrence Options Against Iran
Middle East Institute
Iranian-Chinese economic relations have grown steadily closer over the past four decades, with Beijing emerging as one of Tehran’s leading trade partners in recent years. Their economic relationship entered a new phase in the 1980s, when China started providing Iran with arms and technology during the Iran-Iraq War.
Obstacles and opportunities for closer Iranian-Chinese economic cooperation
Middle East Institute
While security concerns and military-technical capabilities continue to play a significant role in the complex nuclear decision-making processes undertaken by governments, the interplay between these factors and select normative components found within a country’s domestic political and foreign policy environment can, in certain situations, modify the direction of a state’s nuclear program. As such, while a state’s final nuclear-related decisions may or may not diverge from security predictions in the end, it nevertheless remains useful for scholars and policymakers to consider how other factors might impact how states arrive at their decisions.
Reading of the Week: Nuclear About-Face
The Belfer Center
Tehran’s crackdown on anti-government protests and deepening military cooperation with Russia have put relations between Iran and Europe in a downward spiral. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Spring Update, Crisis Group urges the EU to reinvigorate its efforts to de-escalate tensions.
Striking the Right Balance with Iran
International Crisis Group
Lebanon is sliding into “failed state” status. The country has been limping along with a weak interim executive while the presidency has been vacant for over six months. A full restoration of the country’s leading governance institutions is needed as a first step to implement the long-awaited economic and fiscal reforms required to fulfill an International Monetary Fund bailout of $3 billion.
Can the Saudi Iranian Raprocchement Help Adress Lebanons Governance Crisis?
Brookings
In the eight years since Saudi Arabia launched its military offensive against Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement Ansar Allah, much attention has been devoted to Iran’s and Hizbullah’s military assistance to the Houthis. Also important is Hizbullah’s conceptual influence on the Houthis, and the Houthis’ efforts to emulate Hizbullah.
Houthis in the Footsteps of Hizbullah
Taylor & Francis Online
Relations between Europe and Iran are more fraught than at any time in years. Three main factors explain the friction: the impasse in negotiations over restoring the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), the 2015 nuclear deal, as Tehran continues to expand its nuclear activity; Iran’s deepening military cooperation with Russia in the wake of its all-out invasion of Ukraine; and the regime’s brutal crackdown on the anti-government protests taking place across the country since mid-September 2022.
Striking the Right Balance with Iran
International Crisis Group
The political, economic, and security relations between Moscow and Tehran have tightened in recent months, and the bilateral ties are expected to deepen even further. How will this affect Israel, and in turn, what should Jerusalem so?
Deepening Economic and Security Ties between Russia and Iran
The Institute for National Security Studies
A bill regarding the formulation of a naval strategy to address the threat of maritime terrorism in the Middle East, currently before the US Congress, provides another opportunity for understanding the maritime arena as a significant element in Israel’s national strategy regarding the Iranian threat.
The Maritime Arena: Strengthening the Abraham Accords and the Anti-Iranian Alliance
The Institute for National Security Studies
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect – across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect – across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
Several U.N. Security Council resolutions adopted between 2006 and 2010 required Iran to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) investigation of its nuclear activities, suspend its uranium enrichment program, suspend its construction of a heavy water reactor and related projects, and ratify the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement. This report provides a brief overview of Iran’s nuclear program and describes the legal basis for the actions taken by the
IAEA board and the Security Council. It will be updated as events warrant.
Irans Nuclear Program Tehrans Compliance with International Obligations
Congressional Research Service