The continued lack of decisive action from Iran, while Israel steadily “salami sliced" the leadership of the Axis of Resistance, risked diminishing Iran’s influence in the region and over its partners and proxies
Why Iran Struck Israel Despite the Risks
Stimson
This policy brief presents the gender representations theoretical framework to analyse how and why gender is used in the propaganda and politico-military strategies of violent extremist movements. It argues that violent extremist ideologies break down in-group and out-group collective identities into individual “good” and “bad” gender identities, or gender representations.
Why Gender matters in violent extremist propaganda strategy
International Centre for Counter Terrorism
Conflict across the Middle East continues to spiral, and the future US position in the region remains at the forefront of foreign policy discussions. However, this discussion would be incomplete without looking at Russia’s role in the region.
How the Middle East Became an Arena for Putins Power Struggle with the US
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
In September 2022, the death of Mahsa Amini marked a major turning point for Iran. Her death sparked nationwide protests that rapidly evolved from calls to discard controversial hijab regulations to calls for the overthrow of the Islamic Republic. The Clingendael blog series Iran in transition explores power dynamics in four critical dimensions that have shaped the country’s direction since: state-society relations, intra-elite dynamics, the economy, and foreign relations.
The Sepah: Guardian Of Its Self-Interests Since 1979
Clingendael
On 1 January 2024, a surprise Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was announced between the self-declared breakaway Republic of Somaliland and Ethiopia. The deal allowed landlocked Ethiopia to lease 20 kilometres of Somaliland’s coastal land for naval and commercial purposes.
Somaliland at the centre of rising tensions in the Horn of Africa
Danish Institute for International Studies
15 October marked six months since the conflict between the SAF and the RSF first broke out in Sudan. The conflict has gradually expanded from the capital Khartoum to Sudan’s provinces, drawing in new actors as rebel groups and ethnic militias choose allies or pursue independent agendas. Peace talks between the SAF and the RSF have thus far failed to contain the fighting, with at least nine ceasefire agreements failing since April due to repeated violations.
Sudan: RSF Expands Territorial Control as Ceasefire Talks Resume in Jeddah
ACLED
There have been three major waves of coups in post-independence Africa. The first, between the 1960s and 1970s, saw the overthrow of liberation leaders whose political visions conflicted with the interests of major colonial powers. The second wave from 1990 to 2001 followed the failure of 1980s African leaders, mostly military, to embrace democracy and meet citizens’ needs. Since 2021, the third wave – in Sudan, Mali, Guinea, Burkina Faso, Niger and Gabon – has differed from those in previous decades.
Reading of the Week: Africas three waves of coups
Institute for Security Studies
On 7 October, Hamas carried out a massive assault on Israel, drawing immediate comparisons to the 1973 conflict, when the Egyptian and Syrian armies similarly breached Israeli defences. In this Q&A, Crisis Group lays out what happened and where the fighting may be headed.
A Second October War in Israel-Palestine
International Crisis Group
Motorbikes are one of the most widely trafficked commodities in the Sahel, deeply embedded in the Sahelian criminal economy. These trafficking networks are a crucial source for armed groups, particularly in the face of growing restrictions on trade.
Reading of the Week: Motorbikes and armed groups in the Sahel
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
Nguen Monytuil Wejang is one of the longest serving governors in South Sudan. In Unity state, he has maintained his rule by fragmenting the opposition, violently displacing the population, and assembling a diverse political coalition. However, with elections postulated for 2024, and electioneering in full swing, cracks are appearing in Monytuil's control of Unity, with the internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps of Rubkona county transformed into the frontline of a political competition for the state.
The Body Count: Controlling Populations in Unity State
Small Arms Survey
IDF Central Command is responsible for the ongoing campaign in a unique, complex reality in which it has both military control of territory and control over a population – an Israeli population alongside a Palestinian population with nationalist aspirations. The actions taken by the current Israeli government have significant potential to undermine Central Command’s facilitating parameters, which raises doubts as to its ability to maintain security stability in the West Bank.
Undermining the Status Quo in the West Bank: Implications of Government Moves from the Perspective of Central Command
The institute for National Security Studies
The Freedom Theatre (TFT), headquartered in the Jenin Refugee Camp in the northern West Bank that was invaded once again by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) last week, is nothing if not a crucible for the Palestinian experience. Up against grinding poverty, occupation, religious extremism, and, more recently, aerial bombardment, the theater miraculously survives.
Jenins Freedom Theatre rises from the ashes once again
Middle East Institute
Tehran’s crackdown on anti-government protests and deepening military cooperation with Russia have put relations between Iran and Europe in a downward spiral. In this excerpt from the Watch List 2023 – Spring Update, Crisis Group urges the EU to reinvigorate its efforts to de-escalate tensions.
Striking the Right Balance with Iran
International Crisis Group
The surge in violent extremism in sub-Saharan Africa undermines hard-won development gains and threatens to hold back progress for generations to come. The need to improve understanding of what drives violent extremism in Africa, and what can be done to prevent it, has never been more urgent.
Against this backdrop of the surge in violent extremism in sub- Saharan Africa, and the continued prioritization of security-driven responses, UNDP initiated a follow-up study, Journey to Extremism in Africa: Pathways to Recruitment and Disengagement in 2020.
Reading of the Week: Journey to Extremism in Africa, Pathways to Recruitment and Disengagement
United Nations Development Programme