Countries across the world are struggling to navigate a difficult global economic land-scape characterized by persistent disruptions— from structural macroeconomic weaknesses, geo-political tensions, the increasing effects of climate change, health pandemics, and trade and tech-nology wars
Africas Macroeconomic Performance and Outlook
African Development Bank Group
The integration of technology in governance has created transformative possibilities across the world, enhancing the provision of public services. Africa has also benefitted from this wave of digital transformation. Introducing big data applications into governance systems in Africa presents enormous potential for overcoming challenges, including corruption, inefficiency, and poor service delivery.
Technology for Better Governance: Insights from Public Health Systems in Kenya
Observer Research Foundation
As Donald Trump prepares to take office again, a unique opportunity to influence Iran’s direction arises by renewing the combination of effective pressure and robust negotiations, mainly aimed at a permanent detailed weaponization ban, while providing Tehran with possible domestic benefits.
Could the Fall of Assad and the Return of Trump Lead to a Better Deal with Iran?
War on the Rocks
The African Union (AU) member states will elect a new senior leadership of the AU Commission in February 2025. The commission was originally conceived as the secretariat of the AU. Over the years it has become the driving force behind the pan-African project
African Union to get a new chair: 6 key tasks they must tackle
The Conversation
Global tax cooperation and the fight against illicit financial flows (IFFs) have become crucial in international economic governance, especially for African countries. As the global economy becomes more interconnected, base erosion and profit-shifting (BEPS) practices by multinational enterprises (MNEs) have intensified, leading to significant tax revenue losses
Reading of the Week: African Strategies to Combat Illicit Financial Flows
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
In September 2024, authorities in Benin detained the country’s former sports minister and a prominent businessman for allegedly plotting a coup against the West African nation’s president, Patrice Talon. Had a putsch materialized, Benin would have joined a growing list of African countries to have experienced a military coup over the past four years.
Civilian Support for Military Coups Isnt a Bug - Its a Feature
Baker Institute for Public Policy
Comme au Togo et au Gabon, la transition qui a eu lieu au Tchad de 2021 à 2024 a abouti à une succession dynastique.
Mahamat Idriss Déby a succédé à son père Idriss Déby Itno, qui fut président du Tchad de 1996 à 2021. Alors que la majorité des Tchadiens espéraient une alternance et un changement de gouvernance, le « système Déby » est parvenu à se maintenir.
De Déby à Déby. Les recettes d une succession dynastique réussie (2021-2024)
Institut Français des Relations Internationales
Absent rapid reform, Tunisia’s economic policies will plunge the country into an abyss. Already, a financial crisis is brewing. This is the worrisome outcome of the path the country has followed since President Kais Saied’s power grab in July 2021. The path is underpinned by two main aspects of economic policy.
Tunisias Economy in the Eye of the Storm
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The ongoing conflict in Yemen has had devastating effects on the economy, fracturing it along the lines of the warring parties. The country is effectively split between the internationally recognized government, which theoretically controls much of the south but is actually based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, and the Houthi rebels, who hold sway over the north, including the capital, Sanaa.
Engaging Yemens Private Sector in Peacebuilding Amidst Ongoing Conflict
Manara Magazine
Sudan’s protracted and deadly war is not merely a civil conflict, as is often, and sloppily, claimed. Rather, it represents a complex struggle deeply rooted in the nation’s fraught transition to democracy. Following the end of Omar al-Bashir's thirty-year authoritarian rule, Sudan has faced numerous challenges in establishing a stable, civilian-led government.
Sudans War is Anything But Civil
Brussels International Center
There have been many calls-not least from developing countries-to reform major economic institutions such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund (IMF), and the World Trade Organization (WTO). But before entertaining reform ideas, we must grapple with a pair of uncomfortable questions. Are these three organizations fully devoted to poorer countries’ economic and social development? And, are they uniquely equipped to deal with development? These questions are especially pertinent today, as the organizations wrestle with making economic growth “environmentally sustainable,” promoting climate-oriented development, and adding climate action to their already-complex portfolios.
The World Bank , the International Monetary Fund and the World Trade Organization: Reform Challenges
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Central Africa is at a critical juncture in its energy governance, which could shape its energy future. The region is navigating between traditional fossil fuel projects like the encouraged Central African Pipeline System (CAPS) by the Central Africa Business Energy Forum (CABEF) and increasing momentum towards renewable energy solutions advocated by initiatives like the establishment of the Centre for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency for Central Africa (CEREEAC)
Harnessing Regional Energy Governance for Central Africas Energy Security
African Development Bank Group
A number of plans have been proffered for addressing the post-conflict environment. One oft-cited proposal calls for “regional and non-regional states to implement a Multinational Authority to temporarily administer Gaza.” However, the willingness of countries in the region to participate in such an effort remains questionable, absent the setting of a timeline for the establishment of a Palestinian state, which Israel continues to resist.
A Palestinian-led approach for Gazas day after
Middle East Institute
The prospect of Maghreb states’ unity in transforming the oil-rich North Africa, once the breadbasket of the Mediterranean, into a more integrated region of stability and growth was buried at the Carthage summit in April 2024 with the launch of a tripartite initiative bringing together Tunisia, Algeria and Libya, nicknamed the G3.
Reading Of The Week: Will the G3 of Maghreb states reshape the balance of power in North Africa?
Manara
The widespread adoption of non-financial standards for assessing economic performance, often called ESG (Environment, Social and Governance) criteria, appears to have had an impact on financial markets, one that is diffuse and hard to measure. The implications of this shift to a rigid yet vague system of evaluation could be especially challenging for African companies and economies, which are highly dependent on capital flows that must now measure up to the demanding ESG yardstick.
Africa shows ESG is near an adapt-or-die moment
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
Iran’s presidential elections ended with heart surgeon and moderate “reformist” Masoud Pezeshkian winning by a margin of 3 million votes against hardliner Saeed Jalili. The elections were called to replace President Ebrahim Raisi, who died in a mysterious helicopter crash in late May. The July 5 runoff followed a first-round vote on June 28 with record low turnout and inconclusive results.
Monday Briefing: How significant is reformist candidate Pezeshkians victory in Irans presidential vote?
Middle East Institute (MEI)
In Africa, agriculture contributes about 15% of total GDP on average, employs more than half of the total labor force, and within the rural population, provides livelihoods for multitudes of smalls-scale producers whose farms constitute approximately 80% of all farms in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (OECD-FAO, 2016).
READING OF THE WEEK: Feed Africa Strategy 2016 - 2025
African Development Bank Group
As fossil fuel reserves run low and populations continue to grow, resource-wealthy countries face fiscal constraints that push them to shift away from the traditional no-taxation model. As one of the world’s largest oil exporters, Saudi Arabia is a case in point
Tax reform in Saudi Arabia: Assessing the economic and societal impacts
Middle East Council on Global Affairs
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were killed on Sunday in a helicopter crash while returning from Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. The president’s death, along with that of one of his closest officials, comes at a very delicate time for the Islamic Republic, which has faced numerous domestic and international challenges over the past year.
Reading of the Week: Iran after Raisi: what comes next?
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale
Compared to neighboring countries that continue to wrestle with political instability, natural disasters, conflict, and mass migrations, Jordan is a relatively small and stable nation. Yet today it faces serious economic challenges, with youth unemployment at around 50 percent and a debt ratio that is around 114 percent of its gross domestic product (GDP). Climate change compounds an already dire economic situation; impacts key sectors of the economy
Vulnerability and Governance in the Context of Climate Change in Jordan
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
African governments have notable challenges, primarily surrounding addressing formal development concerns like effective education, healthcare, infrastructure, and skilled technical workforces. However, these issues will have to be addressed in tandem with enacting formal AI regulation to preempt harms to citizens and hold companies accountable for deleterious AI systems.
How AI is impacting policy processes and outcomes in Africa
Brookings
This research paper charts these dynamics, exploring their drivers and impacts. It focuses on how different actors – including government armed forces, local elites, and militias and rebel groups in border regions – have competed for control of farmlands, sesame production and trade. The paper also proposes solutions that might help to reduce violence and promote stabilization by addressing internal and transnational conflict dynamics affecting Ethiopia and Sudan.
The Conflict economy of sesame in Ethiopia and Sudan
Chatham House
Economic growth is expected to rebound in Sub-Saharan Africa, supported by increased private consumption and declining inflation in 2024. However, this positive outlook remains fragile due to uncertain global economic conditions, low fiscal buffers, growing debt service obligation, costly external borrowing, and escalating conflict and violence, which continue to weigh on economic activity in the region.
Tackling Inequality to Revitalize Growth and Reduce Poverty in Africa
World Bank
A year after restoring diplomatic ties, Saudi Arabia and Iran still experience tensions. Conversations and diplomatic re-openings haven't translated into significant agreements due to ongoing regional conflicts and deep-seated distrust, especially concerning their allies and the situations in Yemen and Lebanon.
Saudi-Iranian Relations Restored But Remain Tense
Wilson Center
The conflict in Gaza and Israel is yet another shock to the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. It is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating an already challenging environment for neighboring economies and beyond. This Update covers economies in the MENA region and does not discuss developments in Israel.
Regional Economic Outlook Middle East and North Africa
International Monetary Fund
The recent series of unconstitutional changes of government in the Sahel has highlighted the challenges that the EU faces in balancing strategic interests with its commitment to democratic values. It now needs to reassess its strategy in the region.
Time to reshape the EUs engagement
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Governments around the world are increasingly aware of the importance of diaspora networks to foster sustainable development, primarily in countries of origin. In 2018, the Global Compact on Migration established the creation of conditions that allow diaspora networks to contribute to sustainable development through the transfer of skills, social capital and financial resources as a key objective. And diaspora engagement is increasingly prioritized in national development strategies, with many impressive initiatives under way.
How can governments better support diaspora contributions to social, cultural and economic development?
The Overseas Development Institute
The food, energy, and debt crises in the Middle East and North Africa have exacerbated structural economic weaknesses of low- and middle-income countries, particularly Egypt, Tunisia, and Lebanon, creating mounting pressure on domestic political orders and worsening these countries’ geopolitical marginalization.
Misfortune to Marginalization: The Geopolitical Impact of Structural Economic Failings in Egypt, Tunisia, and Lebanon
Carnegie Middle East Center
The Atlantic Basin has long lacked diplomatic and political initiatives embracing it as a whole. In that regard, it stands out from other oceans, as focus on the North Atlantic has largely overshadowed the "Rest". Nevertheless, a series of recent initiatives point to a possible solution to this long institutional absence.
The rising strategic significance of the Atlantic basin
Policy Center for the New South
On 20 December, 44 million eligible Congolese voters will elect their new president alongside parliamentary, regional assembly, and local council positions in a single-round poll. The incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi and 21 opposition candidates have entered the presidential race, marking the first election after a democratic transition of power since independence
Disorder and Distrust Ahead of the 2023 Elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo
ACLED
Corruption ranks among the greatest governance and development challenges confronting African countries. In the words of the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (2016), “as both a product and cause of poor governance and weak institutions, corruption is one of the major costs and impediments to structural transformation in Africa.”
Amid rising corruption, most Africans say they risk retaliation if they speak up
AFRO Barometer
Chad’s constitutional referendum, scheduled for December 17, is the latest step by General Mahamat Déby’s military junta to stage-manage a transition that maintains the hereditary succession of the Déby dynasty and the military as a central political actor in this country of 18 million people that straddles six neighbors in the volatile Sahel region.
Chads Constitutional Referendum Promises a Transition without Change-or Stability
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Over nine years of violence and conflict have profoundly altered the Republic of Yemen’s economy. The war has shattered the country’s already fragile socioeconomic equilibria, affecting nearly every facet of life. Since the onset of the conflict, economic diagnostics have focused on descriptions of the deteriorating macro-fiscal and poverty conditions, lack of food security, and loss of capital accumulation.
Alternative Paths for Yemen up to 2030 A CGE-Based Simulation Analysis
World Bank Group
India’s G20 presidency spotlighted the pivotal role of digital public infrastructure in fostering sustainable and inclusive development. Such a network is crucial for Africa’s rapidly expanding digital landscape. Yet without strategic actions the continent risks succumbing to a new type of resource curse — the digital one.
Reading of the Week: How to Achieve African Digital Sovereignty
The South African Institute of International Affairs
La dernière série de coups d’État en Afrique subsaharienne cache-t-elle un spectaculaire retournement contre les processus politiques fondés sur le principe électoral qui avaient été engagés dans les années 1990? Pour sept pays concernés (Burkina Faso, Gabon, Guinée, Mali, Niger, Soudan, Tchad), la prise du pouvoir par les militaires signe la fin d’un cycle, celui de la tentative de démocratisation par l’élection, et l’entrée dans un nouveau cycle, à l’issue inconnue.
En Afrique, des coups dÉtat, signes de lépuisement prématuré de la démocratie importee
Policy Center For The New South
Africa has shown resilience in the face of the COVID-19 pandemic, reduced fiscal space, debt burdens, climate change, and economic headwinds. Over the past decade, we as a continent have continued to reduce poverty and grow the middle class. We are poised to embark on a transformation journey to help us reach our fullest economic potential. Now is the time for Africa to accelerate its evolution as a single market, a valuable player in value chains, and a destination for investment, particularly in the green economy.
Marrakech Framework: An African Agenda for Global Financial Architecture
African Center for Economic Transformation
This report summarises the key results of the closed-door roundtable, held in Rome on 8 June 2023 and organised by the IAI. Joined by a diverse group of experts, practitioners, policymakers and civil society representatives from Europe and the MENA region, the workshop provided an opportunity to reframe the nature and objectives of the EU–Tunisia relationship, moving from a short-term emergency focus to a more comprehensive appreciation of the multiple political, economic and governance challenges facing Tunisia in the short and medium term.
Reframing EU–Tunisia Relations: Democracy, Governance, Migration
Istituto Affari Internazionali
In the vast semi-arid expanse of West Africas Sahel, a series of military coups have dealt a heavy blow to the regions political stability and democratic transformation, and created a new era of uncertainty and insecurity.
Why West Africa and the Sahel are witnessing a resurgence in coups and political instability
Arab News
A number of MENA countries face high debt levels. Egypt, Jordan, and Tunisia are in a precarious situation. Lebanon is already in default. These debt difficulties are rooted in persistent structural issues related to governance and regulatory frameworks and bloated public sectors. The situation has been exacerbated by global economic fluctuations, the pandemic, and Russias invasion of Ukraine. Unless reforms are made quickly, debt restructurings may become inevitable. If inevitable, it is preferable to do them preemptively, as part of a broader set of corrective actions.
Debt Clouds over the Middle East
Economic Research Forum
In the vast semi-arid expanse of West Africas Sahel, a series of military coups have dealt a heavy blow to the region’s political stability and democratic transformation, and created a new era of uncertainty and insecurity.
Why West Africa and the Sahel are witnessing a resurgence in coups and political instability
Arab News
IDF Central Command is responsible for the ongoing campaign in a unique, complex reality in which it has both military control of territory and control over a population – an Israeli population alongside a Palestinian population with nationalist aspirations. The actions taken by the current Israeli government have significant potential to undermine Central Command’s facilitating parameters, which raises doubts as to its ability to maintain security stability in the West Bank.
Undermining the Status Quo in the West Bank: Implications of Government Moves from the Perspective of Central Command
The institute for National Security Studies
In March 2020, Lebanon opted for a “hard default” on $32 billion in sovereign debt, allowing the government to avoid negotiating with its Eurobond holders and investors. Beirut thereafter showed little interest in addressing the consequences of default, and the country’s economic meltdown worsened. As usual, the Lebanese people were the casualties, suffering amid what the World Bank has called a “deliberate depression.” This official negligence has cleared the way for a proliferating cash economy—which in turn has spawned a currency exchange scheme involving the central bank, foreign exchange agents, and Lebanese politicians.
Cash Cabal: How Hezbollah Profits from Lebanons Financial Crisis
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
This report is an attempt to do something novel: rather than explore how many people think the world is in trouble, it looks at the willingness of people in key countries around the world to support real, credible, and global solutions. The Global Governance Survey examines attitudes to the state of the world, revealing deep concern over conflict, economics, corruption, and other global issues, as well as potential global governance responses to issues of peace and security, pandemics, climate change, and institutional reform.
Reading of the Week: Global Governance Survey 2023 - Finding Consensus in a Divided World
Stimson Center
This paper focuses on countries having extended nuclear deterrence arrangements with a nuclear-armed patron from whom they have received a nuclear security guarantee. Extended nuclear deterrence is often called a ‘nuclear umbrella’ a metaphor that hardly captures the risks inherent in nuclear deterrence practices and the non-nuclear weapon states belonging to an alliance with such arrangements are commonly referred to as ‘umbrella’ states.
The Role of Umbrella States in the Global Nuclear Order
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Inflation in Sudan has averaged 46 percent over the past decade, reaching 359 percent in 2021. Sudan’s history of high inflation suggests that strong inflationary pressures remain an important macroeconomic challenge for the country. Building on the African Development Bank’s (AfDB) 2023 background analysis on the Sources of Inflationary Pressures in Sudan, this Policy Brief identifies and quantifies these pressures over the period 1992-2022 and proposes policy measures to reduce inflation.
Sources of Inflationary Pressures in Sudan
African Development Bank Group
High levels of debt and changing bailout strategies are reshaping the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East and North Africa. Countries exporting hydrocarbons are gaining prominence over the highly indebted nations of Egypt, Jordan, Lebanon, and Tunisia. This is exacerbating the economic marginalization of low- and middle-income countries, forcing them to align geopolitically with ambitious, resource-rich funders, whose overlapping or colliding spheres of influence are fragmenting the region.
How Rising Debt Has Increased Egypts and Tunisias Geopolitical Peripheralization
Carnegie Middle East Center
Over the past seven years, kidnapping has become a widespread business in North and South Kivu, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). Members of all segments of society are kidnapped, and many people not only the members of armed groups have become kidnappers.
Reading of the week: The kidnapping business, Criminality in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
The final conclusions of the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were released on the 20th of March 2023.[1] It integrates the work conducted for the past five years on the Physical Science basis, Adaptation and Mitigation by the AR6 Three Working Groups, and the three special reports on limiting warming to 1.5°C, Climate Change and Land, and the Ocean and the Cryosphere. This synthesis provides the extent of science and knowledge we have on climate change from its causes, its impacts and its perspectives on the solutions. Because they translate science into concrete and quantified political objectives, IPCC statements are always significant milestones for global climate actions.
What Does the IPCC Say About Our Future?
Brussels international Center
This study sheds light on the potential of personal income tax (PIT) to address inequality in African countries. We employ new data on PIT design and reforms from the TaxDev Employment Income Taxes Dataset (EITD) alongside data on pre-tax income distributions from the World Inequality Database (WID) to model the redistributive capacity of PIT regimes in African countries, and the extent to which reforms to these regimes between 1995 and 2020 have affected this potential. We find that, on average across the study period, PIT could reduce inequality by around 4.1 Gini points in African countries if applied to the entire income distribution.
Personal income tax reforms and income inequality in African countries
Overseas Development Institute
This paper applies a finite mixture model to a sample of 92 developing countries over the period 1995-2018 to investigate the relationship between financial development and economic complexity. Economic complexity refers to the amount of productivity knowledge that a country accumulates. The study posits that the effect of financial development on economic complexity differs across groups of countries with similar but unobserved characteristics. The study finds that the effect of financial development on economic complexity varies across four classes of countries, which differ according to their level of economic, political, and financial stability.
Financial Development and Economic complexity: The Role of Country Stability
African Development Bank Group
Beyond having an internationally recognised government, Libya is in dire need of a legitimate administration to take it a step away from political stagnation and division. A legal framework and a roadmap associated with a timetable for Libya’s elections in 2023 is therefore paramount, although caution is required – as to not be too hasty. Holding elections without an implementable constitutional basis and without unifying key state institutions like financial institutions (central bank), security institutions and the executive branch, will be counterproductive.
Resolving Libyas Legitimacy Crisis: 2023 Elections as a Pathway for Peace and Democratisation?
Istituto Affari Internazionali
In the global narrative on organized crime, a key sticking point has often been the question of definitions and measurement. How should we define organized crime? What components should be included in its definition? And what are the best ways of measuring it? In the analysis and programming on organized crime, these questions have been a source of some debate. To date, there is no consensus.
Sahel: Why stabilization efforts should address internal displacement
Clingendael
Recent weeks have seen growing closeness between China and Iran, which peaked with the signing of several important bilateral agreements and successful Chinese mediation between Beijing and Riyadh. What lies behind this rapprochement and what obstacles lie ahead?
Whither Iran and China? A Limited Partnership, yet Deep and Durable
The Institute for National Security Studies
Businesses thriving on corrupt behavior and a weak and corrupt public sector often go hand in glove. The public sector is either the counterpart of corrupt businesspeople or is responsible for contributing to poor governance by failing to implement laws and regulations, or actively protects corrupt players via a corrupt, or simply incompetent, judiciary system. For corruption to grow in the private sector, authorities have to be complicit and, when they are, a culture of corruption starts spreading.
On the Need to Carefully Calibrate International Sanctions as an Instrument to Fight Corruption in the MENA Region
Euromesco
This work empirically examines China’s growing footprint in Sub-Saharan Africa’s investment, trade, cultural, and security landscape over the past two decades. It highlights China’s increasing appetite for Sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources and growing young labor force-identifying the region’s consumer market as an important destination for Chinese goods and services over the next few decades.
China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reaching far beyond natural resources
Atlantic Council
The agreement signed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian government on 2 November 2022 offers a real chance to end one of the bloodiest wars in the world. The implementation of the agreement is going well so far. However, the peace process has brought into focus the question of a stable distribution of power within Ethiopia and in the Horn of Africa.
Sustaining Peace in Ethiopia
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
On 6 February, six zones and five special woredas in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Regional State (SNNPR) held a referendum on statehood to determine whether the zones – Wolayta, Gamo, Gofa, South Omo, Gedeo and Konso – and special woredas – Derashe, Amaro, Burji, Basketo and Ale – will form a separate autonomous state or remain within the SNNPR. This was the third such referendum on statehood to be held in the region since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018.
Referendum in Ethiopias Southern Region
Rift Valley Institute
Le 5 février 2023, le gouvernement malien finit par expulser le directeur de la division des droits de l’homme de la MINUSMA, quelques jours après avoir violemment dénigré la prise de parole dune défenseure des droits humains malienne devant le Conseil de sécurité.Dix ans après la mise en place de la Mission multidimensionnelle intégrée des Nations Unies pour la stabilisation au Mali (MINUSMA), lavenir de celle ci et de ses 15 000 militaires et policiers est plus que jamais incertain. Lopération de paix, autorisée en 2013 dans le sillon de lintervention militaire franco-africaine par un Conseil de sécurité alors uni derrière la « plume » française, est aujourd hui logiquement remise en question dans un contexte de défiance entre les partenaires traditionnels du Mali et les nouvelles autorités du pays.
Reading of the Week: MINUSMA à la carte ou fin de partie géopolitique au Mali
Le Rubicon
China has displayed support for the Palestinians over past decades, and Israel, for its part, has chosen “elegantly to look the other way.” The last two years, however, have seen a change: China has heightened its rhetoric, and Israel has joined the global criticism of China’s human rights policies. How will this affect relations between Jerusalem and Beijing?
China, Israel, and the Palestinians: Navigating Politics and Economics
The Institute for National Security Studies
Amid widening West Bank violence, the far-right minister is pursuing a policy leading to de facto annexation, and it is unclear whether Netanyahu will cap these ambitions. On February 22-23, an Israeli government panel advanced plans to construct over seven thousand new housing units in various settlements, the largest such decision ever issued at a single planning meeting.
Israel Expands Settlements as Smotrich Increases His Authority
The Washington Institute
The Middle East and North Africa is generally thought to be among the parts of the world where corruption spreads the fastest- and this is despite the progress of legislation in some MENA countries and the economic wealth in others. The role of women in the fight against corruption in the region is often ignored and underestimated. This column argues that more gender egalitarianism in a fair system can enhance efforts to reduce corruption.
Gender and corruption in MENA countries
Economic Research Forum
“The way out is through the door. Why not use this exit?” Do these words by Confucius apply to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? The Arab Peace Initiative to resolve the conflict was presented over twenty years ago, but to date most Israeli governments have chosen to ignore it or reject it. Why now might it be the time to give it a chance?
Reality-Guided Imagination: The Angel of History Considers the Palestinian Issue
The Institute for National Security Studies
Although U.S.-Saudi bilateral ties are on the mend, ambiguities and the transactional nature of the 1945 oil-for-security covenant contribute to mistrust and mutual tensions. But the burden of fixing or stabilizing the relationship is a shared responsibility. For its part, Saudi Arabia should make a determined and demonstrable effort to address legitimate U.S. concerns, including human rights, oil production policy, security overtures to Beijing, and the war in Yemen.
After Oil-For-Security: A Blueprint for Resetting US-Saudi Security Relations
Middle East Institute
More than a year after cancelled elections and a violent upheaval, Palestinians face the prospect of a destabilizing leadership transition. President Mahmoud Abbas, 87, continues to exert a strong hold on power, but his reign is unavoidably nearing its end. A smooth succession will be challenging, as Abbas holds three leadership posts.
Managing Palestines Looming Leadership Transition
Crisis Group
Are new winds blowing in China’s relations with Middle East states, or are they essentially more of the same? The visit by China’s President to Saudi Arabia was heralded as a “new era,” but what does this mean, and what can be understood from Beijing’s various statements about how it sees the region? Most important, how do these developments reflect China’s attitude toward Iran?
President Xi Jinpings Middle East Visit: The Chinese Perspective
The Institute for National Security Studies
Liberal intervention actors often understand Russian engagements in Africa through a great power vacuum logic. This logic sees Russian influence as resulting from Russia filling a vacuum where other (notably liberal) interveners downscale. This article unpacks that vacuum logic and explores its consequences and effects. On the one hand, the vacuum logic is central to representations of Russia as an entirely external ‘other’, which contribute to constituting a ‘liberal’ intervention approach and community.
Liberal interventions renewed crisis: Respponding to Russias growing influence in Africa
Chatham House
The results of the Knesset elections did not surprise the Palestinians, who have followed the changes in Israeli society over the last decade or more vis-à-vis the Palestinian issue, and especially the rising support for parties opposed to a political resolution. In this context, they increasingly question the benefit of continued reliance on the process created with the Oslo Accords. Herein, however, lies the trap: the establishment of the Palestinian Authority was an achievement worth maintaining, yet this achievement has not produced an independent Palestinian state.
Standing Firm? The Palestinians after the November 2022 Elections
The Institute for National Security Studies
Michel Aoun ended his term as Lebanon’s President before any replacement was selected. Once again, this led to a governmental vacuum, which is more serious now than in the past because the present government is a transitional government. The current composition of Parliament, which is responsible for choosing the president, and the internal disputes among its members make it difficult to agree on and select a candidate.
The governmental Vacuum in Lebanon
The Institute for National Security Studies
Although there is international consensus on the desired outcome of the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) - namely Israeli-Palestinian talks resulting in a two-state solution - there is no peace, and for years there has been no process either. In the meantime, Israelis still live with the threat of terrorism and rocket attacks, while Palestinians continue living without full rights under what were supposed to be interim arrangements agreed on in the 1990s.
The outlook for the Middle East Peace Process: Stuck in a one-state reality, and you cant get out of it
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Current protests present the Iranian regime with a far more immediate crisis than the selection of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s eventual successor. But the opaque succession process and the underlying questions over its legitimacy and lack of accountability will haunt Iran’s political system long after the unrest has been quelled. Having succeeded Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini in 1989, Khamenei is now the longest-ruling leader of a Middle Eastern state, and his death will herald a significant transition for both Iran and the wider region.
Iran protests highlight its crisis of legitimacy
Chatham House
This Review identifies and discusses certain unresolved aspects of the Revitalised Peace Agreement which are likely to derail the constitutional design process. The aim is to show their implications and potential impacts on constitution-making process. The Review urges parties to the Agreement, policy analysts, and researchers to be seized with these key aspects prior to the commencement of constitution-making.
The unresolved aspects of the Revitalised Peace Agreement and their implications on constitution-making in South Sudan
The Sudd Institute
On August 29, 2022, Qom-based Grand Ayatollah Kazem Husseini al-Haaeri announced his resignation as a marjaa taqlid, a religious authority and source of emulation in the Shia community. He encouraged his emulators (muqallidin) to switch their allegiance to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. He also used his address to launch a scathing attack against Muqtada al-Sadr, the populist cleric and leader of Iraq’s Sadrist movement.
Muqtada al-Sadr and the Struggle for Religious Authority
Carnegie Middle East Center
In 2012, Tunisia announced the establishment of a free trade and logistics zone (FTZ) in Ben Guerdane, near the Libyan border. The aim is to develop marginalized southeastern border regions and formalize informal economic actors. However, the plan has stalled due to institutional resistance, political divisions, and an incapacity to exploit international geopolitical rivalries. If this persists, the project may become irrelevant because of emerging FTZs in Libya, denying Tunisia revenues its ailing economy needs.
Reckless Abandon: Why Tunisia Can No Longer Delay a Border Free Trade Zone
Carnegie Middle East Center
The negotiations between the United States and Iran on renewing the nuclear agreement have run into serious difficulties following the opposition by the United States and the European partners to Iran's demand that the IAEA close the open files on the Iranian nuclear program before the implementation of the agreement (120 days after signing). At the same time, Iran continues to accelerate the program, including the enrichment of uranium using cascades of advanced centrifuges.
Difficulties in the Negotiations with Iran: Implications for Israel
Institute for National Security studies
Somalia’s constitution-making process has become a never-ending and an expensive project throughout the last two decades. The Transitional National Charter, which established the third republic in Djibouti in 2000, called for a new constitution. In 2004, the Transitional Federal Charter established a constitution-making process for the country. Somalia’s governments have established various committees: the Independent Federal Constitution Commission, the Committee of Experts, the Technical Committee, and the Technical Facilitation Committee.
Reading Of The Week: On Reviewing Somalias Provisional Constitution Background, Challenges, and Future Prospects
Heritage Institute
This Weekly Review discusses the implications of this extension and its proposed Roadmap. We argue that the government’s extension meets the first stage but fails short in the case of the last two for a valid amendment to be attained. We, however, contend that the Revitalized Joint Monitoring and Evaluation Commission’s (RJMEC) consent is only procedural, so skipping it does not render the changes invalid provided the parliament finally ratifies them.
Amending the South Sudans Revitalized Peace Agreement: The Implications of the Extension and its Roadmap
The Sudd Institute
Against the backdrop of a catastrophic and seemingly endless downward spiral that began in 2019, a paralysing political stalemate has once again gripped Lebanon.
Lebanons Perennial Limbo: A Paralysed System Teetering on the Brink
Istituto Affari Internazionali
Iraq's current institutions offer no enforceable compromise between consensus rule and majority rule. The popularity of Sadr's current farming shows that many Iraqis oppose the consensus system. With no path to compromise, violence between these two groups is difficult to avoid.
Iraq must compromise between majoritarianism and consensus government formation
Al Jazeera
Kenya’s election season is now in its final stretch. On August 9, 2022, voters across the country and members of the diaspora will head to the polls for another general election. Nationally, two front-runners—Deputy President William Ruto and long-time opposition leader Raila Odinga—are facing off in a contentious race to succeed outgoing President Uhuru Kenyatta, who is completing his second and final term in office. This election cycle comes at a time of significant economic discontent, with many Kenyans concerned about rising costs of living, public debt, and pervasive corruption. Given that Kenyatta is not up for reelection and that the country’s ruling coalition has splintered, Kenya will see a leadership change no matter what the outcome is.
The Specter of Politics as Usual in Kenyas 2022 Election
Carnegie Endowment For International peace
We have been hearing about transitions in the Middle East for years now. There was the hoped-for democratic transition, which has been a bust. There is an energy transition looming. There is, arguably, a water transition afoot as aquifer depletion, surface-water exhaustion, and climate change all combine to make a mostly arid region profoundly more so. But an equally profound transition may be one few are talking about: a labor transition that may reorder the economics, politics, and society of the entire Middle East, from Casablanca to Tehran.
The Middle East Transition We Need to Talk About
Center for Strategic and International Studies
In 2021, migration dynamics in Niger involved the consolidation of a trend in which the flow of irregular non-Nigerien migrants moving to Algeria overtook the numbers transiting towards Libya – historically the most popular route for sub-Saharans seeking opportunities in North Africa or Europe.
Reading of the Week: Human Smuggling and Trafficking Ecosystems North Africa and the Sahel NIGER
Global Initiative
There is no doubt that Arabs and Israel are hoping for very different things from President Biden’s trip to the Mideast. Israel’s wishes for the Biden visit are straightforward. It wants Biden’s life-long commitment to Israel put on display, to serve as a reminder to countries in the region and to doubters in the U.S. not to question the vibrancy of the U.S.-Israel relationship.
From Arabs and Israelis, Biden Hears Very Different New Middle Easts
The Washington Institute
In 2021, a revival of migration through northern Mali occurred, following the stark decline that took place in 2020, during the initial months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The bulk of this increase was channeled through Timbuktu, which, despite a slowdown resulting from the restrictions implemented regionally and locally to mitigate the spread of the COVID-19 virus, quickly rebounded as soon as restrictions were eased and enforcement relaxed.
Human Smuggling and Trafficking Ecosystems - North Africa and The Sahel MALI
Global Initiative
This brief is part of a series published by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC’s) North Africa and Sahel Observatory. In 2021, human-smuggling activity in Chad was heavily affected by political and security developments, following a period of relative stability for smuggling dynamics. Since 2016, human smuggling through Chad has grown, though migrant numbers remain low in comparison to routes via Sudan and Niger.
Human Smuggling and Trafficking Ecosystems North Africa and the Sahel CHAD
Global Initiative
The precipitous escalation of the security crisis in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC) risks reigniting interstate conflict in the Great Lakes region. The myriad actors and interests involved, however, often defy easy analysis. To help clarify what is driving the worsening security situation, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies compiled this explainer drawing on the insights of multiple experts.
Rwanda and the DRC at Risk of War as New M23 Rebellion Emerges: An Explainer
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
The present report, submitted pursuant to paragraph 55 of Security Council resolution 2612 (2021), covers developments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 17 March 2022 to 16 June 2022. It describes progress made in the implementation of the mandate of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) since the previous report of 21 March 2022 (S/2022/252), including progress towards the realization of the benchmarks and indicators of the transition plan.
United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
United Nations Security Council
The present report is submitted pursuant to Security Council resolution 2625 (2022), by which the Council extended the mandate of the United Nations Mission in South Sudan (UNMISS) to 15 March 2023 and requested the Secretary-General to report on the implementation of the Mission’s mandate every 90 days. The report covers political and security developments, the humanitarian and human rights situation and progress towards the implementation of the Mission’s mandate since the previous report, dated 25 February 2022(S/2022/156).
Situation in South Sudan Report of the Secretary General
United Nations Security Council
Kenyan elections are often high-stakes affairs, with the politicians concerned eager to protect both their careers and their significant business interests. While social tensions are now at a low ebb, in past elections, claims of electoral malfeasance have triggered violence that killed hundreds and displaced tens of thousands.
Kenyas 2022 Election: High Stakes
International Crisis Group
The cabinet of Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid, established in June 2021, is in crisis after the loss of its parliamentary majority in April. The divergent interests of the coalition members have generated further conflicts over internal and security affairs, thus destabilizing the government. While the government remains more effective in foreign policy than domestic matters, it is mainly thanks to regional cooperation. The weakness of the coalition has increased the probability of early parliamentary elections.
On the Brink: A Year of the Coalition of Change in Israel
The Polish Institute of International Affairs
The rapprochement between the Gulf states and Iraq is of economic and geostrategic importance. It allows Iraq to attract necessary investments and balance the influence of Iran, and through their involvement in Iraq, the Gulf states seek to improve their security and influence in the region. However, Iraq's political impasse following the 2021 elections, along with the foreign involvement in its affairs, makes it difficult for it to move closer to the Arab world and function as a bridge between the Persian Gulf and Arabian Gulf. Moreover, the recent rapprochement between Israel and some Gulf states could be detrimental to Iraq, which, due to its internal divisions, is not ripe for joining the normalization trend.
Iraq-Gulf Relations: An Anchor for Stability and Restraining Iranian Involvement in the Region?
Institute National Security Studies (INSS)
Africa's Development Dynamics uses lessons from Central, East, North, Southern and West Africa to develop policy recommendations and share good practices. Drawing on the most recent statistics, the analysis of development dynamics aims to assist African leaders in reaching the targets of the African Union's Agenda 2063 at all levels: continental, regional, national and local.
Reading of the week: Africa's Development Dynamics 2022
African Union / OECED
This report examines how missions are implementing their mandates to protect civilians from SGBV, including CRSV, and assesses good practices, gaps, and opportunities for improvement. The report draws on lessons learned from the UN missions in South Sudan (UNMISS) and the DRC (MONUSCO).
UN Peacekeeping and the Protection of Civilians from Sexual and Gender Based Violence
IPI
Rather than breaking the violent cycle of elite political bargaining in South Sudan, the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (the peace agreement) has become part of it. Almost every component of the peace agreement is now hostage to the political calculations of the country's military and security elites, who use a combination of violence, misappropriated public resources and patronage to pursue their own narrow interests. As a result, much of the peace agreement remains gridlocked by political disputes between its principal signatories.
Reading of the Week: Final report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2577 (2021)
United Nations Security Council
The Impact of Peace & Security on Culture & Heritage Protection in Africa
OXFAM