For Hezbollah, these are trying times. After decades of being Lebanon’s predominant political and military organization, the group is reeling. During a yearlong war with Israel, it lost much of its military infrastructure. Its leadership ranks were decimated.
How Hezbollah Ends
Foreign Affairs
Salam has promised to enforce accountability and implement the ceasefire with Israel; independent Shia cabinet ministers can help him reach those goals while showing there is an alternative to Hezbollah.
Lebanons New Prime Minister Approaches the Next Crossroads on Hezbollah
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Recently, the IDF began a ground operation in southern Lebanon, following the addition of “safely returning northern residents to their homes” to Israel’s war objectives. In this document we analyze potential achievements of a land manoeuvre in Lebanon and alternatives implementation.
The IDF Ground Operation in Lebanon. Goals, Alternatives and Consequences
The Institute for National Security Studies
A year after Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack in southern Israel, the Middle East is on the cusp of all-out war. Since Israel launched its military response in Gaza, the Biden administration has tried both to broker a ceasefire there and to manage the risk of regional escalation. But the lack of a Gaza deal has fuelled hostilities elsewhere, and today the regional containment effort is at grave risk.
Reading of the Week: A Wider Middle East War Can Still Be Stopped
International Crisis Group
On September 30, after a devastating ten-day stretch culminating in Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati announced his government’s support for implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The 2006 resolution was endorsed by Beirut, but the state never implemented its most important provision
In Lebanon, a Rare Moment of Opportunity
The Washington Institute
Following the last war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 that left 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israelis dead, and thousands more injured, the border between Israel and Lebanon remained relatively calm for around 17 years. However, since the Gaza war started in October 2023, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged fire along the border on a nearly daily basis, with clashes concentrated on southern Lebanon and more recently the Bekaa region on the one hand, and northern Israel and the Golan Heights on the other hand.
Hezbollahs strategy against Israel since October 2023
Manara Magazine
For weeks, concerns over the risk of miscalculation or even intentional escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have dominated attention. Ramped up cross-border attacks between the two sides on Sunday, August 25 have left each side simultaneously claiming success “for now,” suggesting a much-feared larger conflagration may have been averted in the near term.
However, implications for longer-term risk and mutual deterrence, Iran’s calculations for escalation, and linkage to the still-elusive Gaza cease-fire remain uncertain.
Israel-Hezbollah Contained Escalation Halts Concern Over Broader Mideast War
United States Institute Of Peace
As the Israel-Hamas War continues, questions loom as to whether Hezbollah, a strong ally of Hamas and Iran, will enter the fight against Israel. Both regional and international actors remain concerned of escalation as assistance provided by countries like Iran and Russia arrives in the Levant.
A Wagner Group Delivery to Hezbollah: Russia and Iran Reaffirm Mutual Objectives via Proxy Groups
Irregular Warfare Center
The war of attrition between Israel and Hezbollah has reached new levels of tension. As attacks penetrate deeper into one another’s territory and the rhetoric intensifies, both sides feel increasingly compelled to respond with greater force, resorting to dangerous exchanges of fire and psychological warfare tactics. Hezbollah demonstrates its ability to fly drones over Haifa undisturbed
Reading of the Week: Israel and Hezbollah Are Playing With Fire
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
Tehran has previously been able to conduct a “hidden-hand operation” via the Houthis at a very low cost, but that price may now be set to rise if allied counter-strikes continue.
Irans Revolutionary Guard Deployed in Yemen
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
So when Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Lebanese Hezbollah and the most powerful non-state actor in the world, says that he doesn’t wish to broaden the war in Gaza to help his Palestinian ally Hamas, the region should breathe a sigh of relief – because his words matter.
The closer Israel gets to destroying Hamas, the more likely war with Hezbollah becomes
Chatham House
Thus far, October’s exchanges of fire between Hizbollah and Israel have stayed within the sides’ red lines. Still, with an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza looming, risks are tremendous. A Gaza ceasefire, while improbable, is the only way to rule out a broader war.
Deterrence between Israel and Hizbollah Must Hold
International Crisis Group
Since 2006, “unspoken rules” have prevented tensions between Hizbollah and Israel from blowing up into large-scale conflict. But the mutual deterrence is fragile. In this video of our In Black & White series, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Lebanon, David Wood, explains how a misstep on one side could lead the other to respond forcefully.
Israeli-Hizbollah Mutual Deterrence Must Be Preserved
International Crisis Group
Lebanon is sliding into “failed state” status. The country has been limping along with a weak interim executive while the presidency has been vacant for over six months. A full restoration of the country’s leading governance institutions is needed as a first step to implement the long-awaited economic and fiscal reforms required to fulfill an International Monetary Fund bailout of $3 billion.
Can the Saudi Iranian Raprocchement Help Adress Lebanons Governance Crisis?
Brookings
In late 2022, Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered maritime agreement establishing their permanent maritime boundary and exclusive economic zones and regulating their rights to gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean. Preceding the agreement was a sustained coercive-diplomacy campaign by Hezbollah. Between June and October, the organization conveyed overt and covert threats, and it pursued actions that were unprecedented in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
Hezbollahs Coercion and the Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
In the eight years since Saudi Arabia launched its military offensive against Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement Ansar Allah, much attention has been devoted to Iran’s and Hizbullah’s military assistance to the Houthis. Also important is Hizbullah’s conceptual influence on the Houthis, and the Houthis’ efforts to emulate Hizbullah.
Houthis in the Footsteps of Hizbullah
Taylor & Francis Online
While the world’s attention is focused on Ukraine, Russia has been steadily expanding its presence in the Middle East, including through its dealings with the Lebanese terrorist group Hizbullah. Although much is still unknown about the full extent of their collaboration, U.S. sanctions designations have revealed a multifaceted and increasingly lucrative relationship that should not be ignored amid other crises.
Hizbullah and Russias Nascent Alliance
The Washington Institute For Near East Policy
Cracks in Israel’s deterrence against Hezbollah are evident following the terrorist attack at Megiddo Junction in mid-March 2023 by a Palestinian who crossed the border from Lebanon, and the rockets fired by Hamas from southern Lebanon into Israel during the month of Ramadan – compounded by the internal crisis in Israel.
Israel May Have to Change its Deterrence Equation with Hezbollah
The Institute for National Securitiy Studies