Great power competition between the United States and China has translated into a trade war featuring, among other issues, green protectionist policies. In the United States, this strategy is used to boost the country’s emerging green industries while reducing U.S. reliance on Chinese imports and containing China’s rise. Green protectionism is reshaping global trade dynamics and often harms Global South countries.
Reading of the Week: Great Power Competition and Green Protectionism
Stimson Center
China has aligned its cooperation model with Saudi Arabia’s own priorities, most notably since the kingdom unveiled its Vision 2030. Although China announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, the big push in relations happened only after the ascendance of King Salman to the throne in 2015 and Riyadh’s push for Beijing to meet Saudi needs.
How China Aligned Itself with Saudi Arabias Vision 2030
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The growing influence of Chinese energy firms in the Persian Gulf is part of a deepening trade and geopolitical relationship as China takes a leading role in the energy transitions underway in the Gulf states and the surrounding region. Several joint ventures (JVs) have been formed between Chinese firms and state-linked Gulf entities, mainly in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Shaping the Energy Transition: Gulf-China Collaboration
Baker Institute for Public Policy
Oil-dependent economies in the Gulf are looking to Chinese tech firms to drive technological progress in the region. Contrary to the narrative that Beijing is imposing its “digital model” on Gulf states, Chinese firms have adapted their strategies to adhere to the local political and regulatory realities in Gulf nations
Local Agency Is Shaping Chinas Digital Footprint in the Gulf
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
China closely aligns its global security expansion with its economic strategy, particularly in Africa’s Maghreb and Sahel regions. This relationship has historical roots, with China beginning engagement there as early as the 1950s by supporting national movements and decolonization efforts.
Chinas military and private security inroads in Africa
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
In early September 2024, China gathered fifty-three high-level African delegations-thirty-six of which were led by heads of state and prime ministers-to the ninth Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC) summit. Few countries can pretend to have such convening power, especially when it comes to Africa.
What FOCAC 2024 Reveals About the Future of China-Africa Relations
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a pivotal catalyst for global innovation, with the United States at the forefront of the development of this transformative technology amid its ongoing great power rivalry with China. However, a notable concern has emerged: the absence of an explicit conception of AI supremacy that threatens to undermine the US' long-term AI strategy
The Role of the Middle East in the US-China Race to AI Supremacy
Middle East Institute
Despite heightened focus in the West about dependence on China – and high-level efforts to recalibrate these relations at the strategic level – Europeans’ economic reliance on China has continued to grow in recent years. EU imports from China reached €515.9 billion in 2023, across a wide array of products, many of which are vital to advanced economies.
Reading Of The Week:Material world: How Europe can compete with China in the race for Africas critical minerals
European Council on Foreign Relations
Africa has emerged as a pivotal partner in China’s Maritime Silk Road Initiative (MSRI), the maritime dimension of Beijing’s flagship Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). One of the key footholds for Chinese inroads has been the Mombasa Port, located on Kenya’s south-eastern coast. Mombasa-the largest and busiest port in East Africa-serves as a gateway for landlocked countries in Africa and is central to regional trade.
Significance of Mombasa Port for Chinese outreach in Africa
Observer Research Foundation
China’s recent third plenum highlights the Communist Party’s commitment to guiding the country’s economy through ongoing global tensions and domestic challenges by focusing on sustainable, high-quality growth fueled by advanced technologies. Despite a robust economic performance and a leading role in global green energy, China’s solar industry faces significant turbulence from overexpansion, fierce competition, and external tariffs.
Chinas Expanding Solar Footprint in the Gulf
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
The Bahrain-China relationship has rarely garnered much interest – that is, until recently. At the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum in May, the two countries agreed to form a comprehensive strategic partnership. The agreement skipped over a strategic partnership designation and placed the small Gulf country in the same category – at least on paper – as regional heavyweights
A Flurry of Activity in Bahrain-China Relations
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Since late 2023, the Houthis in Yemen have posed an extraordinary challenge to global shipping. As a result of the Iranian-backed group’s relentless attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea, intended to pressure the United States and its allies over Israel’s war in Gaza, several of the largest international shipping companies have been forced to reroute their vessels around Africa to avoid the sea entirely.
Chinas Do-Nothing Strategy in the Middle East
Foreign Affairs
There are ongoing debates in Western capitals and global media on whether China is experiencing a serious economic slowdown, whether the economy is on the verge of collapse, and how a collapse may impact the rest of the world.
How Is Chinas Economic Transition Affecting Its Relations With Africa?
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
China and Russia have had different relations with the Middle East since the mid-20th century. Over the years, their regional involvement has diverged, with Russia focusing on military and energy sectors and China on economic engagement.
China and Russia in the Middle East: Seeking Integration Under a Common Goal
Wilson Center
Tensions between the United States and China are expanding beyond the Asia-Pacific region. The Middle East and North Africa is likely to be one of many venues in what might be a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing. We can imagine how Washington and Beijing’s respective global outlooks and ability to project (soft and hard) power could affect their future relations with the MENA region.
The US and China in the Middle East: Three scenarios for 2050
Middle East Institute
China’s biggest media conglomerate, Xinhua, has 37 bureaus in Africa. This dwarves any other news agency—African or non-African—and is a dramatic increase from just a handful two decades ago. Another Chinese media giant, StarTimes, is China’s biggest player in African digital TV and the second largest in Africa after South Africa’s DSTV
Chinas Strategy to Shape Africas Media Space
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Only Nigeria has an active digital currency in Africa, but other African countries are exploring the option. Understanding the form and implications of China’s digital currency agenda, and how it may directly and indirectly shape China’s economic relations with Africa, is important in informing Africa’s own digital currency debate.
Reading of the Week: Chinas Central Bank Digital Currency: A New Force in African Finance?
South African Institute of International Affairs
In October 2023, delegations from more than 140 countries, including 20 heads of state, gathered in Beijing to ring in the second decade of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). Despite the celebrations and festivities, some level of disappointment cast a shadow over the proceedings.
Tightening the Belt or End of the Road? Chinas BRI at 10
Foundation for Defense of Democracies
The Houthi attacks on maritime traffic through the Red Sea have created a major global crisis driving up the price of shipping and pushing about 90 percent of container ships to opt for circumventing Africa instead of going through the Suez Canal.
China Sees an Opportunity in the Red Sea Crisis with the Houthis
Stimson
For several years, Arab publics across the Middle East have increasingly expressed interest in partnerships with Russia and China amidst almost unanimous negative attitudes towards the United States. The United States’ active support for Israel and the war against Hamas since October 7 have only amplified anti-U.S. sentiment across the region.
With Attention on Gaza, Russia and China Continue Economic and Military Inroads in Arab States
Washington Institute for Near East Policy
The debt burden is rising in Africa, with several countries in debt distress. Others have defaulted on their debt services or are undergoing debt treatment under the G20’s Common Framework for Debt Treatments. This comes at a time when the world is experiencing multiple shocks, disrupting economies’ recovery from the pandemic.
Africas Debt Priorities: A Sustainability Perspective and Required Support from the G20
The South African Institute of International Affairs
Sitting on troves of unexplored critical mineral resources such as cobalt, copper, and lithium, the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), Tanzania, and Zambia are emerging as theatres of great power competition in Africa. A new infrastructure undertaking which was conceived under the United States’ (US) Partnership for Global Infrastructure and Investment (PGII) initiative—the Lobito Corridor
The Lobito Corridor: The Wests bid against Chinese domination in Central Africa
Observer Research Foundation
Africa possesses significant reserves of the minerals that are essential for batteries, solar panels and other green tech that will underpin the energy transition from fossil fuels to renewables. Africa’s mining industry, however, remains largely structured around a “pit-to-port” model that channels mineral ores elsewhere for processing.
Africa is a Key Source of Critical Minerals for the Global Energy Transition But There are Hidden Dangers
SAIIA
Africa’s mounting debt crisis could undermine the continent’s economic progress and stability. The problem has worsened with the economic fallout of the COVID-19 pandemic, the war in Europe, and the impacts of climate change. The current debt situation in Africa has reached alarming proportions and could have severe consequences for human security.
Reading of the Week: Navigating the complex terrain of China-Africa debt relations
Institute for Security Studies
China is the largest developing country. Africa is the continent with the largest number of developing countries. The China-Africa economic relationship has developed rapidly over the last two decades. China has increased its investment in Africa over the last four decades. Flows surged from $75 million (2003) to $5 billion (2021).This has had both positive and negative impacts on Africa. Infrastructure improvement, job creation, and overall economic growth can be listed as positive results, leading to improved connectivity, trade, and transportation in a continent where infrastructure integration has always been challenging. Creating such opportunities in Africa has supported lower unemployment rates, particularly among young people, which is fundamental in a continent that enjoys a positive demographic bonus 2021.
The Impact of Chinese Investments in Africa
Policy Center for the New South
This report assesses the environmental, social and governance (ESG) practices of Chinese financed infrastructure projects in Africa, within the context of substantial investment needs for African nations to achieve the United Nations 2030 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
Elevating ESG: Empirical Lessons on Environmental, Social and Governance Implementation of Chinese Projects in Africa
Global Development Policy Center
Over the last decade, China has gradually expanded its presence in the Indian Ocean, combining its military modernization and cooperation with partners with active diplomacy towards the island and coastal states of the region. China’s presence and capabilities threaten the freedom and influence of other actors in the area, including India and the EU.
Reading of the Week: The battle for the Indian Ocean. How the EU and India can strengthen maritime security
European Council on Foreign Ralations
China has emerged as a key funder and builder of infrastructure in the Global South. While this has sparked development, concern about the debt impact of these projects has grown in China and around the world. This policy brief maps key trends emerging in response to this dilemma.. It first looks at the expansion and contraction of Chinese infrastructure finance to Africa and provides some background on the sharp decline in Chinese lending over the past few years. Then it highlights three emerging trends driven by both Chinese and African stakeholders: a diversification of partners, a focus on smaller projects and the emergence of new funding models.
New Trends in Chinese Infrastructure Lending to Africa
South African Institute of International Affairs
Iranian-Chinese economic relations have grown steadily closer over the past four decades, with Beijing emerging as one of Tehran’s leading trade partners in recent years. Their economic relationship entered a new phase in the 1980s, when China started providing Iran with arms and technology during the Iran-Iraq War.
Obstacles and opportunities for closer Iranian-Chinese economic cooperation
Middle East Institute
This paper surveys the trends in trade between Israel and China, in both goods and services, over the past decade (2013–2022). Especially noticeable is the significant and consistent rise in trade with Israel during those years, based mostly on the import of goods from China, which totaled $17.62 billion in 2022. The imports from China are diverse and include machinery for infrastructure and construction projects, consumer products ordered from Chinese websites, which to some degree has mitigated the rise in the cost of living in Israel, and for the past two years, the import of cars from China.
Trends in Trade Between Israel and China Over the Past Decada (2013-2022)
The Institute for National Security Studies
While the 1982 United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS) establishes an objective framework for the coordinated handling of the use of the sea by States in the exercise of their legislative, judicial, and executive powers, China’s legislative bodies, in enacting domestic laws for the fulfillment of treaty obligations, distort obligations in its domestic laws to secure their own national interests.
Anatomy of Chinas Maritime Strategy: Threatening the Maritime Order Through Its National Legislation and Self-Centered Interpretation of UNCLOS
International Law Studies US Naval War College
Abdullah Baabood is a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. He holds the chair of the state of Qatar for Islamic area studies and is a visiting professor at the Faculty of International Research and Education at Waseda University in Tokyo. Recently, he wrote an article for Carnegie titled, “Why China Is Emerging as a Main Promoter of Stability in the Strait of Hormuz.” Diwan interviewed Baabood in late May to discuss his article, and more broadly to get his perspective on China’s changing role in the Middle East, particularly with regard to the Gulf countries.
Chinas Middle Eastern Moment
Carnegie Middle East Center
Launched in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) a global infrastructure and development strategy that aims to connect Asia, Africa, and Europe through a network of land and maritime trade routes, was a significant turning point in China’s foreign policy and has become one of the most ambitious and far-reaching development initiatives in history.
A Decade of Chinas Belt and Road Initiative in the Middle East
The National Interest
Because of its reliance on the Gulf region for much of its oil and gas, China has a strong interest in preserving security in the region, an early example of which was its mediation of the recent Saudi Arabia-Iran reconciliation. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s single-most important energy corridor, forming a chokepoint between the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Why China Is Emerging as a Main Promoter of Stability in the Strait of Hormuz
Carnegie Middle East Center
What will European-Chinese raw material supply chains look like in 2030? This paper outlines three possible scenarios, illustrating the combined effects of different political and socio-economic developments and the impact they could have on European-Chinese supply chains. It aims to help political actors gain a deeper under-standing of possible future trajectories and map out appropriate policy strategies in response to different scenarios.
The Future of European-Chinese Raw Material Supply Chains
Deutsches Institute fur Internationale Politik und Sicherheit
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect – across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect – across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
The recent agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reestablish diplomatic relations has been a game-changing event for security dynamics in the region of the Middle East.The fact this agreement came about under Chinese auspices has shown that the country's diplomatic model for the region may be more effective than that of the US, potentially leading to a shift in great power leadership in this global area. However, there are still important security challenges that need to be addressed with the utmost sensitivity to prevent one of the world's most volatile regions from reverting back to widespread conflict.
Chinas consolidation in the Middle East
Instituto Espanol de Estudios Estrategicos
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.
The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect - across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
This work empirically examines China’s growing footprint in Sub-Saharan Africa’s investment, trade, cultural, and security landscape over the past two decades. It highlights China’s increasing appetite for Sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources and growing young labor force-identifying the region’s consumer market as an important destination for Chinese goods and services over the next few decades.
China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reaching far beyond natural resources
Atlantic Council
China’s engagement with Asian regions beyond its geographical periphery has grown exponentially since the 1990s and this is nowhere more evident than in West Asia and the Persian Gulf subregion. While energy drove China’s early interactions with the Gulf states, within two decades after the Cold War the relationships had evolved into much tighter networks of partnerships. China’s relations with the Gulf states, however, has not been uniform and the case studies of the United Arab Emirates and Iran highlight the complexities of China’s strategy in this subregion and the ways in which it actively pursues its diverse set of interests.
Chinas Grand Vision and the Persian Gulf
Istituto Affari internazionali
China has displayed support for the Palestinians over past decades, and Israel, for its part, has chosen “elegantly to look the other way.” The last two years, however, have seen a change: China has heightened its rhetoric, and Israel has joined the global criticism of China’s human rights policies. How will this affect relations between Jerusalem and Beijing?
China, Israel, and the Palestinians: Navigating Politics and Economics
The Institute for National Security Studies
Current Chinese basing capacity and force commitment in the region seem insufficient to support the level of economic and diplomatic engagement that appears to be Beijing’s new normal, so Washington should prepare for further expansion.
Chinas Growing Naval Influence in the Middle East
The Washington Institute
Are new winds blowing in China’s relations with Middle East states, or are they essentially more of the same? The visit by China’s President to Saudi Arabia was heralded as a “new era,” but what does this mean, and what can be understood from Beijing’s various statements about how it sees the region? Most important, how do these developments reflect China’s attitude toward Iran?
President Xi Jinpings Middle East Visit: The Chinese Perspective
The Institute for National Security Studies
Embarking on his third term in power, Xi Jinping is firmly in control of China’s foreign policy, which is expected to accentuate the enlistment of African support for reshaping global institutions and validating China’s governance norms. Xi Jinping enters his third term as General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as China’s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong.
Chinas Deepening Ties to Africa in Xi Jinpings Third Term
Africa Center For Strategic Studies
Following a record-breaking drought this summer, China is on the brink of a water catastrophe that could have devastating consequences for global food security, energy markets and supply chains. The 2022 drought, which mainly impacted China’s Sichuan province, offered an uncomfortable preview of what the future could bring if water supplies continue to run dry.
How Chinas Water Challenges Could Lead to a Global Food and Supply Chain Crisis
Baker Institute for Public Policy