On January 15, Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani announced that a cease-fire agreement — mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States — had been reached between Hamas and Israel to pause fighting in Gaza and begin a series of steps to end of the war. The agreement details three phases toward immediate humanitarian relief, hostage and prisoner exchange, redeployment of Israeli forces, and negotiations toward a longer-term end-of-hostilities and reconstruction of Gaza.
Reading of the Week: Israel, Hamas Reach Gaza Cease-fire Deal: What Happens Now?
United States Institute of Peace
Few relationships will determine the future of security, peace and prosperity in the Middle East more than the cooperation between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the State of Israel and the United States. The reelection of President Donald Trump, who begins his second term on January 20, 2025, will be a dynamic factor in shaping this three-way relationship
A possible Saudi Arabia-Israel-United States triangle
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
As military conflicts and civil wars in the Middle East intensify—and as the actors involved grow to include a complex array of states, armed groups, and militias—diplomatic efforts to end these hostilities have repeatedly faltered. The region is now plagued by immense human suffering and catastrophic material and moral losses, pushing it to the edge of collapse.
The Middle Easts New War of Attrition
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Even now, in the midst of the current dreadful escalation in Israel-Palestine, there is an opportunity to change the trajectory of events and put the region on a path toward peace. To realize this opportunity, advocates of Palestinian Israeli peace must make a strategic investment in engaging with the mass media in the region.
Reshaping the public discourse is key to restoring support for Israeli-Palestinian peace
Middle East Institute
Over the past decade, and especially since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, Israel has assumed that its military, intelligence, and technological prowess can buy it allies among the Arab Gulf states. In more recent months, Israeli officials also came to believe that escalation would turn the regional equilibrium in their favor: a wider war between Israel and Iran and its proxies could force the Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to finally and fully join with the Israelis.
The Saudi Solution
Foreign Affairs
New Israeli legislation, if fully enforced, would prevent the UN Relief and Works Agency from serving Palestinian refugees in the occupied territories. Such a de facto ban would be disastrous. Questions about the agency’s future should wait until after the Gaza war ends.
Keep UNRWA Alive in Gaza and the West Bank
International Crisis Group
For many years, Israel and Iran maintained an uneasy equilibrium of mutual deterrence and limited hostility. Iran had built up a “forward defense” strategy of allied Arab militias that it was satisfied could deter Israel and would keep the Iranian homeland safe. Israel was worried about this militia network - especially Hezbollah in Lebanon - but largely coexisted with those irritants and figured that neither would launch a major offensive attack.
The Middle Easts changing strategic landscape
Middle East Institute
L’Inde, pays promoteur du mouvement des non-alignés et ardent défenseur de l’anticolonialisme, a manifesté sa solidarité pour la cause palestinienne lors des premières décennies du conflit israélo-palestinien. Les événements du 7 octobre 2023 ont toutefois mis en exergue une proximité avec Israël. La relation indo-israélienne, dont le fil rouge est le développement du partenariat de défense, leur est en réalité mutuellement bénéfique.
Le partenariat strategique entre lInde et Israel au XXIeme siècle
La Fondation Méditerranéenne D’études Stratégiques
Several Israeli attacks on Hezbollah communication systems, aerial attacks on its rocket launchers and caches, assassination of much of the movement’s top leadership and now an Israeli ground offensive form a macabre dance with assaults in the form of relentless Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel, as well as a direct Iranian missile attack more recently. The air hangs heavy with threats of retaliation.
The elusive Israeli quest for strategic victory
Fanack
Recently, the IDF began a ground operation in southern Lebanon, following the addition of “safely returning northern residents to their homes” to Israel’s war objectives. In this document we analyze potential achievements of a land manoeuvre in Lebanon and alternatives implementation.
The IDF Ground Operation in Lebanon. Goals, Alternatives and Consequences
The Institute for National Security Studies
Despite the operational and intelligence successes of Israel in Lebanon in September 2024, a troubling question hangs over the country: Who bears responsibility for the failure to anticipate the Oct. 7 Hamas assault that led also to the war in Lebanon and on other fronts? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his intelligence chiefs appear locked in a blame game, with each side offering conflicting accounts of whether warnings were issued and, if so, why they were not acted upon
Reading of the Week: Israels Oct. 7 early warning failure: Who is to blame?
Texas National Security Review
The continued lack of decisive action from Iran, while Israel steadily “salami sliced" the leadership of the Axis of Resistance, risked diminishing Iran’s influence in the region and over its partners and proxies
Why Iran Struck Israel Despite the Risks
Stimson
A year after Hamas’s 7 October 2023 attack in southern Israel, the Middle East is on the cusp of all-out war. Since Israel launched its military response in Gaza, the Biden administration has tried both to broker a ceasefire there and to manage the risk of regional escalation. But the lack of a Gaza deal has fuelled hostilities elsewhere, and today the regional containment effort is at grave risk.
Reading of the Week: A Wider Middle East War Can Still Be Stopped
International Crisis Group
In July, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the war in Gaza and the future of the Middle East. Afterward, Harris stressed her commitment to a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians-in her words, “the only path that ensures Israel remains a secure Jewish and democratic state, and one that ensures Palestinians can finally realize the freedom, security, and prosperity that they rightly deserve.”
She is hardly alone in this sentiment.
A Two-State Solution That Can Work
Foreign Affairs
Israel should maintain its traditional position of opposing the establishment of an independent nuclear fuel cycle in Saudi Arabia, given the negative strategic ramifications of such a move. Specifically, Israel should insist on applying the nuclear “gold standard,” as was the case with the United Arab Emirates.
The Proposal for a Regional Nuclear Fuel Bank in Saudi Arabia
The Institute for National Security Studies
Following the last war between Hezbollah and Israel in 2006 that left 1,100 Lebanese and 160 Israelis dead, and thousands more injured, the border between Israel and Lebanon remained relatively calm for around 17 years. However, since the Gaza war started in October 2023, Hezbollah and Israel have exchanged fire along the border on a nearly daily basis, with clashes concentrated on southern Lebanon and more recently the Bekaa region on the one hand, and northern Israel and the Golan Heights on the other hand.
Hezbollahs strategy against Israel since October 2023
Manara Magazine
For weeks, concerns over the risk of miscalculation or even intentional escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have dominated attention. Ramped up cross-border attacks between the two sides on Sunday, August 25 have left each side simultaneously claiming success “for now,” suggesting a much-feared larger conflagration may have been averted in the near term.
However, implications for longer-term risk and mutual deterrence, Iran’s calculations for escalation, and linkage to the still-elusive Gaza cease-fire remain uncertain.
Israel-Hezbollah Contained Escalation Halts Concern Over Broader Mideast War
United States Institute Of Peace
Given the current lack of viable security alternatives on the Israel-Lebanon border, Washington may try to patch up UNIFIL’s many deficiencies—but it must do so with a clear understanding that the force has repeatedly failed its mission and squandered its credibility.
The Pros and Cons of Salvaging (or Ditching) UNIFIL
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Since the United States atomic bombing of Hiroshima on August 6, 1945, humankind has been acquainted with new meanings of catastrophic conflict and “total war.” Until now, however, before Russian aggressions against Ukraine and prospective Iranian wars against Israel, the tangible portents of a “final epidemic” have seemed more-or-less manageable. What next?
Madness and World Politics: Risks of a Nuclear War
Modern Diplomacy
A series of violent events over the past week have taken the Middle East closer to the brink of all-out war. The latest of these was the killing, on 31 July, of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas’s political wing and a high-level guest of the Iranian government, in the Iranian capital Tehran on the day of the new Iranian president’s inauguration
Reading of the Week: Staying the Guns of August: Avoiding All-out Regional War in the Middle East
International Crisis Group
On July 20, Israel responded to a deadly Houthi drone attack in Tel Aviv with heavy airstrikes on the Yemeni port of Hodeida, destroying most of the site’s oil storage tanks. On one hand, this targeting choice reflects crucial gaps in the international community’s policy toward the group. On the other hand, Hodeida is also a crucial entry point for humanitarian aid, so targeting its infrastructure has negative repercussions for the Yemeni people.
To Stop Israeli Attacks on Yemen, Enforce Sanctions on the Iran-Houthi Link
The Washington Institute
As tensions between Israel and Hezbollah escalate, the specter of a full-scale war, with the potential to draw in the United States and Iran, demands the US’ immediate attention. The Biden-Harris Administration has tasked, in response, White House Senior Advisor Amos Hochstein with the responsibility of mediating efforts to de-escalate the conflict and bring stability to the Lebanon-Israel border
Securing Lebanon to Prevent a larger Hezbollah-Israel war and wider escalation
American Task Force on Lebanon and The Middle East Institute
Since February 2024, the United States has imposed a series of unprecedented sanctions linked to Israeli settlers in the West Bank for human rights violations. This includes two rounds of sanctions targeting a close associate of Israel’s far-right national security minister, two entities that raised money for violent settlers, five settlers, and two illegal outposts.
Civilians or Soldiers? Settler violence in the West Bank
Armed Conflict Location and Event Data
The United Arab Emirates signed the 2020 Abraham Accords with Israel in pursuit of strategic benefits. During the Gaza war, costs are becoming clear. Abu Dhabi shows no sign of rethinking normalisation, but it might consider smaller steps to register discontent with the Israeli campaign.
Reading Of The Week: The UAE, Israel and a Test of Influence
International Crisis Group
The war of attrition between Israel and Hezbollah has reached new levels of tension. As attacks penetrate deeper into one another’s territory and the rhetoric intensifies, both sides feel increasingly compelled to respond with greater force, resorting to dangerous exchanges of fire and psychological warfare tactics. Hezbollah demonstrates its ability to fly drones over Haifa undisturbed
Reading of the Week: Israel and Hezbollah Are Playing With Fire
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
The ICC prosecutor has said he is seeking arrest warrants for top Hamas and Israeli figures in connection with crimes committed since 7 October 2023. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Brian Finucane, Stephen Pomper and Mairav Zonszein examine the legal and political implications.
All Eyes on The Hague: The ICC Prosecutors Move against Hamas and Israeli Leaders
International Crisis Group
Iran’s decision to launch a direct, state-on-state attack against Israel on April 13 increased the risk of overt conventional conflict in the Middle East. This attack was significant in scope, scale, and complexity, employing hundreds of one-way attack drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.
How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Irans Attack?
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Iran’s direct drone and missile attack on Israel that lasted several hours on Saturday evening has changed the long-established terms of engagement between the two adversarial states. It has also taken the Middle East closer to a wider conflict that if uncontained will have serious and destabilizing ripple effects across the region.
Irans attack on Israel was not the failure many claim but it has ended Israels isolation
Chatham House
The Israeli attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, which killed seven senior military officials, was not the first time Israel has killed Iranian generals. It was uniquely audacious in that Israel struck a building claimed by Iran as a diplomatic facility.
Reading of the Week: Iran Carefully Weighs Response to Israeli Attack in Damascus
Stimson Center
Amid the chaos and war of the past five months, Palestinian constitutional issues have hardly been at the forefront of anybody’s mind. That is a problem: neglecting the structure of Palestinian institutions over the past thirty years has deeply aggravated—and continues to deeply aggravate—Palestine’s political crisis.
Why an Interim Constitution Could Help Palestine: The Domestic and International Payoffs
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Nearly six months into the Gaza war, Israel has come to the realization that the pre-October 7 status quo in south Lebanon is no longer tenable. Whether a new status quo is established through negotiation or force of arms, something will have to give—the question is when and under what circumstances. Either way, the United States can and should take more steps to defer escalation.
Changing the Israel-Lebanon Status Quo: U.S. Options
The Washington institute for Near East Policy
On March 25, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed Resolution 2728, calling for an “immediate” cease-fire in Gaza. The motion’s passage came after weeks of back and forth and posturing among the UNSC’s permanent and rotating members
Reading of the Week: What Does the U.N. Cease-Fire Resolution Mean for the Israel-Gaza War?
United States Institute of Peace
Most Israelis would support a deal if they were sure it would bring them security, but their current skepticism is based on real and urgent concerns about demilitarization given their past experience with Gaza and Lebanon.
Without Enforcement, Talk of Two States Is Hollow
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Since the Houthis launched their assault on global shipping in November, the United States and its partners have scrambled for ways to restore calm and commerce to the Red Sea. First, on December 18, Washington assembled a maritime coalition designed to boost the U.S. presence in the area and promote regional security. Then, in January, the United States started intercepting Iranian military shipments bound for the Houthis and issued multiple warnings to the group. Finally, after nearly two months of continuous attacks in the Red Sea, the United States and the United Kingdom launched a barrage of strikes against the Houthis’ facilities.
How Washington Emboldened the Houthis
Foreign Affairs
In proceedings before the International Court of Justice (ICJ), the Republic of South Africa is alleging that Israel is responsible for violations of the Genocide Convention in respect of its actions taken in Gaza, allegations which Israel rejects.
Reading of the week: South Africas genocide case against Israel: The International Court of Justice explained
Chatham House
The risk of regional escalation means that the Gulf Arab states should do more to push for a ceasefire, not only for humanitarian reasons, but for their economic self-interest. It has also caused extensive economic damage, not only to Gaza and the West Bank, but also to neighboring countries and to Israel itself.
The economic case for a Gaza ceasefire
Chatham House
Skirmishes on the Israel-Lebanon border have been bloody but within bounds and attacks on U.S. forces in Syria and Iraq by Iran-backed groups have led to calibrated U.S. retaliation. Iran retains a potential trump card, however, in the form of its advancing nuclear program.
Will the Gaza War Affect Irans Nuclear Strategy?
Stimson
The conflict in Gaza and Israel is causing immense human suffering. In addition to the direct impact, the conflict will also have consequences for the broader Middle East and North Africa region, with impacts on both people and economies. This comes at a time when economic activity in the region was already expected to slow, falling from 5.6 percent in 2022 to 2 percent in 2023.
Middle East Conflict Risks Reshaping The Regions Economies
International Monetary Fund
Past peace processes in Israel and Palestine failed to offer long-term solutions to the conflict, but they showed what makes negotiations work. In the latest round of hostilities in Gaza, key Arab governments are uniquely positioned to leverage relationships with all parties to lay out the conditions that could broker a lasting peace.
Arab Peace Initiative II: How Arab Leadership Could Design a Peace Plan in Israel and Palestine
Carnegie Endowment For international Peace
So when Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Lebanese Hezbollah and the most powerful non-state actor in the world, says that he doesn’t wish to broaden the war in Gaza to help his Palestinian ally Hamas, the region should breathe a sigh of relief – because his words matter.
The closer Israel gets to destroying Hamas, the more likely war with Hezbollah becomes
Chatham House
At present, five different scenarios for how the situation in Gaza could develop seem most plausible. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and could well overlap or follow one another.
Five scenarios for Gaza and how the international community can shape its future
Middle East Institute
Initial reactions to Hamas’s October 7 bloody attack on Israelis and Israel’s declaration of war focused on the short term: how strongly would Israel react and what would its war aims be? It was precisely such short-term thinking—on the part of Israeli, Palestinian, American, and other leaders who sought to postpone rather than address issues—that contributed to the current crisis. Israel has finally spelled out war aims, but they are very ambitious: to oust Hamas from governance and to destroy its military capability. That new, yet limited, clarity has pushed public discussions and private, official meetings to begin arrangements for the day after.
There Might Be No Day After in Gaza
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
That is one of many questions that have arisen in the days since Hamas’ Oct. 7 incursion into Israel and attacks on Israeli forces and civilians. The absence of early warnings from data collected via sensors, cameras, and surveillance drones along the border’s “smart fence,” as well as the penetration of the Iron Dome missile defense system, has led to a sense that Israel experienced a tragic “high-tech failure.”
The October 7 Hamas attack: An Israeli overreliance on technology?
Middle East Institute
Thus far, October’s exchanges of fire between Hizbollah and Israel have stayed within the sides’ red lines. Still, with an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza looming, risks are tremendous. A Gaza ceasefire, while improbable, is the only way to rule out a broader war.
Deterrence between Israel and Hizbollah Must Hold
International Crisis Group
On 7 October, Hamas carried out a massive assault on Israel, drawing immediate comparisons to the 1973 conflict, when the Egyptian and Syrian armies similarly breached Israeli defences. In this Q&A, Crisis Group lays out what happened and where the fighting may be headed.
A Second October War in Israel-Palestine
International Crisis Group
After more than a decade in which it was preoccupied with the civil war, the Syrian military, while turning increasing attention toward its old enemy, Israel, seeks to regain its former strength. How is the Syrian military fortifying itself on both the conventional and nonconventional levels, and what should Israel do?
Rebuilding the Syrian Military: The Threat to Israel
The Institute for National Security Studies
Unlike with the Abraham Accords, the Palestinian issue is expected to assume center stage in any possible arrangement between Israel and Saudi Arabia. Why is that, and why should Israel realize the opportunity to distance itself from the steep slope leading toward a one-state reality?
The Palestinian Authority is Playing on the Normalization Court
The Institute for National Security Studies
A struggle is underway for control of Area C (60 percent of the West Bank). The Palestinians are eager to control the area, which they see as essential to a contiguous and viable Palestinian state. In contrast, the Israeli government is working to push the Palestinians out of the area and prepare to annex it. Normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is an opportunity for a change of approach in the struggle to regulate the control over Area C and block an emerging, dangerous one-state reality.
The Struggle over Area C: Change Direction toward a Space for Understanding with the Palestinian Authority
The Institute for National Security Studies
Since 2006, “unspoken rules” have prevented tensions between Hizbollah and Israel from blowing up into large-scale conflict. But the mutual deterrence is fragile. In this video of our In Black & White series, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Lebanon, David Wood, explains how a misstep on one side could lead the other to respond forcefully.
Israeli-Hizbollah Mutual Deterrence Must Be Preserved
International Crisis Group
The INSS Insight “Why Don’t Arab Citizens Join the Protest Movement against the Proposed Judicial Overhaul?” attributes the lack of participation by Israeli Arabs in the protests against the judicial overhaul largely to indifference and alienation. The results of a February 2023 survey and a closer analysis, however, reveal a complex interplay of factors that hinder this sector’s involvement. These factors include geographical distance, historical experiences of repression, feelings of alienation, skepticism regarding the inclusivity of democracy, and fears for personal safety. Understanding and addressing these challenges is crucial for fostering greater Arab participation in protests and ensuring their meaningful representation in the pursuit of social and judicial change. Furthermore, efforts toward inclusivity, dialogue, and recognizing the specific concerns of Arab citizens are essential in building a more representative and inclusive democratic system in Israel.
What Deters the Arab Population from the Protests?
The Institute for National Security Studies
The Freedom Theatre (TFT), headquartered in the Jenin Refugee Camp in the northern West Bank that was invaded once again by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) last week, is nothing if not a crucible for the Palestinian experience. Up against grinding poverty, occupation, religious extremism, and, more recently, aerial bombardment, the theater miraculously survives.
Jenins Freedom Theatre rises from the ashes once again
Middle East Institute
This paper surveys the trends in trade between Israel and China, in both goods and services, over the past decade (2013–2022). Especially noticeable is the significant and consistent rise in trade with Israel during those years, based mostly on the import of goods from China, which totaled $17.62 billion in 2022. The imports from China are diverse and include machinery for infrastructure and construction projects, consumer products ordered from Chinese websites, which to some degree has mitigated the rise in the cost of living in Israel, and for the past two years, the import of cars from China.
Trends in Trade Between Israel and China Over the Past Decada (2013-2022)
The Institute for National Security Studies
A recent essay touting a “one-state” approach to Israel-Palestinian issues is more about eliminating the world’s only Jewish state than offering real solutions to complex regional problems.
The No-State Solution
The Washington Institute for near policy
The characterization of Israeli control over Palestinians as an apartheid system represents a significant shift in the way the regime is portrayed and understood. While the application of the term to Israel has been around since the 1960s, traction has intensified over the past two decades, partly due to the emergence of an anti-apartheid movement and increasing recognition that Israel’s grip on Palestinian territory is permanent. Legal experts, scholars, human rights professionals, and multilateral institutions have all contributed to the growing body of research and analysis supporting the charge.
Apartheid and the Palestine Liberation Movement: Opportunities and Challenges
Middle East Council on Global Affairs
In late 2022, Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered maritime agreement establishing their permanent maritime boundary and exclusive economic zones and regulating their rights to gas exploration in the eastern Mediterranean. Preceding the agreement was a sustained coercive-diplomacy campaign by Hezbollah. Between June and October, the organization conveyed overt and covert threats, and it pursued actions that were unprecedented in the Israel-Hezbollah conflict.
Hezbollahs Coercion and the Israel-Lebanon Maritime Deal
Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs
A bill regarding the formulation of a naval strategy to address the threat of maritime terrorism in the Middle East, currently before the US Congress, provides another opportunity for understanding the maritime arena as a significant element in Israel’s national strategy regarding the Iranian threat.
The Maritime Arena: Strengthening the Abraham Accords and the Anti-Iranian Alliance
The Institute for National Security Studies
Cracks in Israel’s deterrence against Hezbollah are evident following the terrorist attack at Megiddo Junction in mid-March 2023 by a Palestinian who crossed the border from Lebanon, and the rockets fired by Hamas from southern Lebanon into Israel during the month of Ramadan – compounded by the internal crisis in Israel.
Israel May Have to Change its Deterrence Equation with Hezbollah
The Institute for National Securitiy Studies
In a dramatic development, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russia’s President, who is “allegedly responsible” for war crimes in the conflict with Ukraine. While there is little chance of seeing Putin in court, this precedent has much significance – including potentially for Israel
Putin and The Hague: The Precedent, and the Significance for Israel
The Institute for National Security Studies
Three months ago, the most far-right government in the history of Israel was sworn in by the Knesset under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu. Notably, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Kahanist leader of Jewish Power and former convict for racist incitement, has been appointed the head of the newly created Ministry of National Security. Additionally, Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the settler-based Religious Zionism party, has been given major control over the administration of the occupied West Bank as the head of the Finance Ministry.
Shifting Paradigms for Israel-Palestine: Why the EU Must Answer the Wake-Up Call Now
Istituto Affari Internazionali
As a result of the riots of May 2021, a number of justifiable decisions were made about establishing a National Guard, as part of the Israel Police. The initiative to establish the present force, which Minister Ben-Gvir demands that it be subordinate to his ministry, not only will weaken the Police but will also be expensive and complicated and will cause difficult organizational obstacles that will harm the other security and enforcement organizations—including the IDF.
The Israeli Border Police: Toward Fundamental Changes in its Mission and Responsibilities?
The Institute for National Security Studies