Since the early 1980s, the U.S. has embraced a predominantly laissez faire approach to economic development. Recently, however, there has been a momentous shift to embrace place-based industrial policy and an intentional effort to reshore “critical industries” through a multitrillion-dollar wave of legislation, including the CHIPS and Science Act (CHIPS), Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), and Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA).
The CHIPS and Science Act wont build inclusive innovation ecosystems on its own
Brookings
The cost of capital (CoC) for renewable power generation technologies is a major determinant of the total price to purchasers of renewable electricity. Both reliable data, and a deep understanding of the composition of the CoC and its drivers, are therefore critical information. Crucially, even small differences in the CoC that are not properly accounted for can result in misleading cost calculations and lead to poor policy making.
The Cost of Financing for Renewable Power
International Renewable Energy Agency
Overall, the Arab League summit could be an opportunity for leaders to take steps to turn the League from a symbolic regional bloc to a more influential one. This could involve increasing collaboration and coordination between Arab states in more concrete terms, as well as strengthening and expanding the League's institutional capabilities.
What Critical Opportunities and Challenges Await the Arab League Summit?
Brussels International Center
This policy brief examines the historical context and current state of corruption in Lebanon. Despite numerous promises and commitments by successive governments to tackle corruption, Lebanon continues to be synonymous with weak state institutions, bad governance, and failure to provide public services and social welfare.
Understanding the Politics of Anti-Corruption in Lebanon
European Institute of the Mediterranean
Cracks in Israel’s deterrence against Hezbollah are evident following the terrorist attack at Megiddo Junction in mid-March 2023 by a Palestinian who crossed the border from Lebanon, and the rockets fired by Hamas from southern Lebanon into Israel during the month of Ramadan – compounded by the internal crisis in Israel.
Israel May Have to Change its Deterrence Equation with Hezbollah
The Institute for National Securitiy Studies
The resurgence in late 2021 of the M23 rebel movement has plunged the volatile eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) into even more turmoil, displacing an additional 600 000 people in 18 months. Tensions between the DRC and Rwanda, which is supporting the M23, are at an all-time high. Regional efforts by Luanda to reconcile the two countries have so far failed. The East African Community has taken the bold step of sending in a regional military force, but its composition is problematic and it is already coming up against domestic opposition.
Reading of the Week: The M23 Crisis. An Opportunity to Bring Sustainable Peace to the Great Lakes Region?
The South African Institute of International Affair
Le Burundi a initié un programme d’élaboration des Bilans Alimentaires (BA) qui essayent de couvrir la totalité des denrées alimentaires, primaires ou dérivées. Ils constituent un outil efficace de suivi de la sécurité alimentaire.
Rapport danalyse des bilans alimentaires du Burundi 2020-2021
African Development Bank Group
Although a considerable body of research has examined the relationship between information and communication technology and the food production process, less attention has been paid to whether internet utilization impacts food production in north African countries. This research sought to investigate the short and long-run relationship between internet utilization and food production in north Africa. Yearly data sets from 4 countries (Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, and Morocco) were used, covering the period 1990-2021.
Internet and Food Production: Panel Data Evidence from North African Countries
Economic Research Forum
Most of the clothing and gadgets you buy in stores today were once in shipping containers, sailing across the ocean. Ships carry over 80% of the world’s traded goods. But they have a problem – the majority of them burn heavy sulfur fuel oil, which is a driver of climate change.While cargo ships’ engines have become more efficient over time, the industry is under growing pressure to eliminate its carbon footprint. European Union legislators reached an agreement to require an 80% drop in shipping fuels’ greenhouse gas intensity by 2050 and to require shipping lines to pay for the greenhouse gases their ships release. The International Maritime Organization, the United Nations agency that regulates international shipping, also plans to strengthen its climate strategy this summer.
Global shipping is under pressure to stop its heavy fuel oil use fast, that is not simple, but changes are coming
The Conversation
Complexity and uncertainty characterize the relationship between climate change, conflict and displacement. The analytical enormity of climate change, conflict and displacement as individual challenges is further amplified when these are considered collectively. In addition to being complex and uncertain, the relationship between climate change, conflict and displacement is also highly political. Political priorities and associated narratives (rather than independent and impartial evidence) determine how climate change, conflict and displacement are conceptualized and addressed.
Living with climate change, conflict and displacement
Overseas Development Institute
Digitalization is one of the main forces shaping the modern global economy—and an area in which the Arab world has fallen behind. Policy-makers in the region must find ways to capitalize on the enormous dividends of new digital technologies and mitigate their risks. Reaping the benefits will require improved education and training, better cybersecurity, more private sector support, and international cooperation.
How can the digital economy benefit everyone in the Arab world and prevent the region from falling farther behind?
Economic Research Forum
This brief is part of a larger research project, A Climate of Fragility, conducted by IOM Iraq and Social Inquiry, which provides the first detailed profiling of southern governorates in Iraq in a decade, exploring population demographics, housing, access to services, socio-economic situation, agriculture, migration, wellbeing, governance, security, and social cohesion. The profiling is based on a large-scale household survey.
Employment in the South of Iraq Challenging Prospects for Woman and Youth
International Organisation for MIgration
Over eight years of war in Yemen have had dire consequences on people’s day-to-day lives and shaped their definitions and perceptions of peace. Years of failed negotiations have allowed the warring factions to monopolize conversations on peace. Within these negotiations, women at both the local and national level have been largely excluded, despite them being at the forefront of mitigating the war’s impact on Yemenis. Utilizing a community-centered approach, this study seeks to give agency to Yemenis to define peace based on their own lived experiences, propose practices that promote women’s role in peacebuilding, and suggest ways to mitigate local practices that produce or reproduce gender inequalities and violent or non-peaceful practices. The study heavily draws on feminist literature that argues the ‘hidden’ everyday practices carried out by women — procreation, day-to-day routines, caregiving, satisfying basic human needs, negotiating inequalities, social relations, and resolving conflict—are integral to social cohesion, but inadequately researched nor recognized.
GRASSROOTS VOICES: Women and Everyday Peacebuilding in Yemen
SANAA
Since the 15th of April 2023, a conflict between Sudan’s two largest armed actors, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has ravaged the country. Forty-five million civilians stand in the crossfire, their lives threatened by the war. Hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing the country. Sudan’s international partners have both a moral duty and a practical interest in promoting peace in the country. As Sudan’s generals resist international calls for a ceasefire, there is one potential way to stop the fighting: deny the SAF and the RSF the financial resources they need to finance their war efforts.
Reading of the Week: To Stop the War in Sudan, Bankrupt the Warlords
Clingendael
This study sheds light on the potential of personal income tax (PIT) to address inequality in African countries. We employ new data on PIT design and reforms from the TaxDev Employment Income Taxes Dataset (EITD) alongside data on pre-tax income distributions from the World Inequality Database (WID) to model the redistributive capacity of PIT regimes in African countries, and the extent to which reforms to these regimes between 1995 and 2020 have affected this potential. We find that, on average across the study period, PIT could reduce inequality by around 4.1 Gini points in African countries if applied to the entire income distribution.
Personal income tax reforms and income inequality in African countries
Overseas Development Institute
Blue Nile state in Sudan and the Benishangul-Gumuz region in Ethiopia are home to dozens of communities, many of which have long been marginalized by their respective governments, processes that started well before these two countries were even formed. Over time, communities on both sides of the border in Blue Nile and Benishangul-Gumuz have adopted various strategies to defend their interests and have often looked to the other side of the border for support. Since 2018, there have been profound political changes in both Sudan and Ethiopia. Consequently, many borderland communities have adapted their own political strategies, with some choosing to engage more with their own government and others seeking support from across the border for their own agendas, whether political, economic or security related.
Resistance In the Peripheries
Rift Valley Institute
Extremist activities and violence in the centres of conflict in the Sahel (i.e. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger) are moving south towards the four countries of interest of this paper (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal and Togo). At the time of writing, all except Ghana have experienced direct jihadist attacks, and all have reported extremist encroachment and recent increases in refugees, especially from Burkina Faso.
Reading of the Week: The Sahel Conflict: economic and security spillovers on West Africa
Overseas Development Institute
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect – across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
In a dramatic development, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russia’s President, who is “allegedly responsible” for war crimes in the conflict with Ukraine. While there is little chance of seeing Putin in court, this precedent has much significance – including potentially for Israel
Putin and The Hague: The Precedent, and the Significance for Israel
The Institute for National Security Studies
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect – across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
The present report is the thirty-seventh semi-annual report of the SecretaryGeneral on the implementation of Security Council resolution 1559 (2004). It provides a review and assessment of the implementation of the resolution since the issuance of the previous report on the subject (S/2022/749), on 11 October 2022, and covers developments until 24 March 2023.
Implementation of Security Council resolution 1559 (2004)
UN Security Council
Three months ago, the most far-right government in the history of Israel was sworn in by the Knesset under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu. Notably, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Kahanist leader of Jewish Power and former convict for racist incitement, has been appointed the head of the newly created Ministry of National Security. Additionally, Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the settler-based Religious Zionism party, has been given major control over the administration of the occupied West Bank as the head of the Finance Ministry.
Shifting Paradigms for Israel-Palestine: Why the EU Must Answer the Wake-Up Call Now
Istituto Affari Internazionali
This paper applies a finite mixture model to a sample of 92 developing countries over the period 1995-2018 to investigate the relationship between financial development and economic complexity. Economic complexity refers to the amount of productivity knowledge that a country accumulates. The study posits that the effect of financial development on economic complexity differs across groups of countries with similar but unobserved characteristics. The study finds that the effect of financial development on economic complexity varies across four classes of countries, which differ according to their level of economic, political, and financial stability.
Financial Development and Economic complexity: The Role of Country Stability
African Development Bank Group
The Heritage Institute’s State of Somalia (SOS) report focuses on the main developments and key trends in politics, security, the economy, social services and the role of external actors in 2022. The objective of this annual report is to document key events that shaped Somalia throughout the year as well as provide analysis and context for policymakers, academics and the general public in order to support peace and state building efforts in the country.
State of Somalia: 2022 Report
Heritage Institute
Increasing strategic competition among major powers has had a negative effect on the efficacy of formal multilateral cooperation. This has also been reflected in informal forums such as the G7, G20 and BRICS. Yet some new dynamics have emerged.Since Russia was excluded from the G8 in 2014, the G7 has become a key forum for Western cooperation. Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine has further geared the group towards a stronghold of Western economies and democracies.The BRICS group has continued to meet at leaders’ level, and has consolidated its position. Despite variation in its members’ interests, the group aims to balance the G7, and its importance for China and Russia has been elevated.
The changing dynamics of the G7, G20 and BRICS: Informal multilateral cooperation is increasingly important in an era of strategic competition
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
The cost of capital (CoC) for renewable power generation technologies is a major determinant of the total price to purchasers of renewable electricity. Both reliable data, and a deep understanding of the composition of the CoC and its drivers, are therefore critical information. Crucially, even small differences in the CoC that are not properly accounted for can result in misleading cost calculations and lead to poor policy making.
The cost of financing for renewable power
International Renewable Energy Agencia
The war in Yemen has reached an inflection point. Back-channel talks between two of the main belligerents – the Huthi rebels and Saudi Arabia, the chief external patron of the internationally recognised government – are proceeding amid a shaky informal truce. The front lines have stayed mostly quiet since April 2022, when the parties concluded a formal truce, despite that agreement’s expiry six months later. The pause in hostilities has helped the Huthi-Saudi parley along, and a deal appears to be on the horizon.
Yemens Troubled Presidential Leadership Council
International Crisis Group
The war in Yemen has reached an inflection point. Back-channel talks between two of the main belligerents – the Huthi rebels and Saudi Arabia, the chief external patron of the internationally recognised government – are proceeding amid a shaky informal truce. The front lines have stayed mostly quiet since April 2022, when the parties concluded a formal truce, despite that agreement’s expiry six months later. The pause in hostilities has helped the Huthi-Saudi parley along, and a deal appears to be on the horizon.
Yemens Troubled Presidential Leadership Council
International Crisis Group
Lebanon is experiencing a constantly evolving multi-layered crisis which is exacerbating long-term structural vulnerabilities, reversing previously made development gains, and leading to acute and increasingly visible humanitarian needs among the most vulnerable populations.
Lebanon Emergency Response Plan 2022 - 2023
Relief Web
Polling data from across the Arab world suggests a growing disillusionment with democracy and its role in fostering economic development. While such disillusionment is understandable, it is not necessarily accurate.This paper reviews analytic work and empirical data on governance, economic growth, foreign direct investment, and export diversification in an effort to understand whether metrics of “voice and accountability” (which are often used as proxies for democratic development) are correlated with higher levels of economic growth and performance.
Voice, Accountability, and Economic Growth in the MENA Region
Middle East Council On Global Affairs
In Central African countries, explosive substances, explosive precursor chemicals and initiators are controlled products and special authorization is needed to import, use, and transport or store them. However, some of these products are diverted, and used to manufacture improvised explosive devices (IEDs), or in activities such as illegal mining or blast fishing. Criminal actors are involved in the illicit flows of explosives. Some are the illegal final users of explosives, which constitute the last step of the illicit supply chain.
Reading of the Week: Illicit flows of explosives in Central Africa
Enhancing Africas Response to Transnational Organised Crime
Beyond having an internationally recognised government, Libya is in dire need of a legitimate administration to take it a step away from political stagnation and division. A legal framework and a roadmap associated with a timetable for Libya’s elections in 2023 is therefore paramount, although caution is required – as to not be too hasty. Holding elections without an implementable constitutional basis and without unifying key state institutions like financial institutions (central bank), security institutions and the executive branch, will be counterproductive.
Resolving Libyas Legitimacy Crisis: 2023 Elections as a Pathway for Peace and Democratisation?
Istituto Affari Internazionali
In the global narrative on organized crime, a key sticking point has often been the question of definitions and measurement. How should we define organized crime? What components should be included in its definition? And what are the best ways of measuring it? In the analysis and programming on organized crime, these questions have been a source of some debate. To date, there is no consensus.
Sahel: Why stabilization efforts should address internal displacement
Clingendael
As the world reboots its economies from the impact of Covid-19 pandemic, it is important to adopt an economic development model that lessens environmental, climate and disaster risks and one where social and economic benefits are inclusive. At the core of the recovery and in line with commitments under the Paris Agreement, is the clean energy transition to drive economies. This involves uptake of technologies that reduce emissions such as wind and solar energy and less of fossil fuel-based technologies. Whilst clean energy and decarbonizing international investment and finance seem to be dominating the development discourse, what is less talked about is the minerals, including rare earth minerals, metals and construction materials needed for this to happen.
Strengthening Africas Role in the Battery and Electric Vehicle Value Chain
Africa Development Bank Group
Many non-state armed groups use forced marriage during armed conflict. This practice has been documented across all geographic regions, in every decade since the 1940s, and across armed groups with many different ideologies. Yet while policymakers, scholars, and practitioners recognize forced marriage as an important form of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV), there are no frameworks for conceptualizing the frequency and range of forms of forced marriage that occur in conflict.
Forced Marriage by Non-state Armed Groups: Frequency, Forms, and Impact
International Peace Institute
Many non-state armed groups use forced marriage during armed conflict. This practice has been documented across all geographic regions, in every decade since the 1940s, and across armed groups with many different ideologies. Yet while policymakers, scholars, and practitioners recognize forced marriage as an important form of conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV), there are no frameworks for conceptualizing the frequency and range of forms of forced marriage that occur in conflict.
Forced Marriage by Non-state Armed Groups: Frequency, Forms, and Impact
International Peace Institute
This Energy Insight explores the interplay between the decarbonization and digitalization of the electricity sector. While decarbonization has been studied extensively, there has been less attention paid to the digital transition. Not only can digital technologies improve efficiency and reduce operational costs, they also can enable new energy ecosystems, create new business models, and accelerate the energy transition.
The implications of digitalization on future electricity market design
The Oxford Institute for energy studies
Despite the growing importance of services in the global economy, Europe’s trade cooperation with Africa is almost exclusively focused on commodities and other primary goods. Services – which range from banking and insurance to transport – are largely missing from Europe’s trade and development cooperation agenda with Africa.
Tricks of the trade: Strengthening EU-African cooperation on trade in services
European Council on Foreign Relations
Several U.N. Security Council resolutions adopted between 2006 and 2010 required Iran to cooperate fully with the International Atomic Energy Agency’s (IAEA’s) investigation of its nuclear activities, suspend its uranium enrichment program, suspend its construction of a heavy water reactor and related projects, and ratify the Additional Protocol to its IAEA safeguards agreement. This report provides a brief overview of Iran’s nuclear program and describes the legal basis for the actions taken by the
IAEA board and the Security Council. It will be updated as events warrant.
Irans Nuclear Program Tehrans Compliance with International Obligations
Congressional Research Service
The recent agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to reestablish diplomatic relations has been a game-changing event for security dynamics in the region of the Middle East.The fact this agreement came about under Chinese auspices has shown that the country's diplomatic model for the region may be more effective than that of the US, potentially leading to a shift in great power leadership in this global area. However, there are still important security challenges that need to be addressed with the utmost sensitivity to prevent one of the world's most volatile regions from reverting back to widespread conflict.
Chinas consolidation in the Middle East
Instituto Espanol de Estudios Estrategicos
As a result of the riots of May 2021, a number of justifiable decisions were made about establishing a National Guard, as part of the Israel Police. The initiative to establish the present force, which Minister Ben-Gvir demands that it be subordinate to his ministry, not only will weaken the Police but will also be expensive and complicated and will cause difficult organizational obstacles that will harm the other security and enforcement organizations—including the IDF.
The Israeli Border Police: Toward Fundamental Changes in its Mission and Responsibilities?
The Institute for National Security Studies
This paper uses a Dynamic Spatial Durbin Model (DSDM) to study potential spatial spillover effects of terrorism on military spending. We show that terrorism in the home country as well as in neighboring countries lead to an increase in military spending (as % of general government expenditure) in the home country.We also find a strategic complementary in military spending decisions, as an increase in military spending in neighboring countries has a positive and significant effect on home military spending. As the effects of increased military spending on growth are likely to be negative, our results indicate that terrorism spillover or military spending complementarity can negatively impact a country’s growth, even in the absence of direct terrorist attacks.
Reading Of The Week: Terrorism and Military Expenditure in Africa An Analysis of Spillover Effects
African Development Bank Group
Food security in Egypt is under threat due to many domestic and external challenges, such as climate change, water scarcity, global instability and disruption of supply chains, especially during the Russian Ukrainian crisis, and the economic deficit and need for reforms, particularly in the post-COVID era. This threat is expected to worsen in the near and distant future.
The Egyptian Holistic Approach to promote food security and tackle related challenges
Euromesco
This study explores Southwest’s attempts to form local district councils through indirect elections mediated by elders – a process that is more democratic than the practice of direct appointments. It investigates phases of slow stabilization and reconciliation through indirect election. The paper also examines organic approaches to political inclusion, the role of technical expertise in conducting indirect election at the district level and illustrates major post-election hurdle and concludes with recommendations.
District council formation through indirect election in southwest state of Somalia: A means to democratization
Heritage Institute
Today’s world is characterised by deep interdependencies and a growing degree of connectivity, namely the ability to bring people, goods, systems and societies closer together, while fostering deeper economic relations and people-to-people ties. For Africa, this focus on connectivity is more important than ever, as it is a critical factor underpinning the continent’s aspirations.
African Conflictivity
European Union Institute for Security Studies
Artificial intelligence systems are rapidly being deployed in all sectors of the economy, yet significant research has demonstrated that these systems can be vulnerable to a wide array of attacks. How different are these problems from more common cybersecurity vulnerabilities? What legal ambiguities do they create, and how can organizations ameliorate them? This report, produced in collaboration with the Program on Geopolitics, Technology, and Governance at the Stanford Cyber Policy Center, presents the recommendations of a July 2022 workshop of experts to help answer these questions.
Adversarial Machine Learning and Cybersecurity. Risks, Challenges, and Legal Implications
Center for Security and Emerging Technology
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.
The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect - across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
How can a global community linking people on the basis of a Korean musical genre influence political and military processes in the world at large, and Israel in particular? In the digital era, social media have gained widespread popularity and become an important element of human culture. These platforms constitute a modern town square - a space for public discourse, where information and ideas flow rapidly.
Cultural Communities as a Foundation for Global Influence Operations: The K-Pop Community and Operation Guardian of the Walls
The Institute for National Security Studies
Kidnappings of nationals in Burkina Faso surged to record-breaking levels in 2021 and continued at this unprecedented scale throughout 2022. Non-state armed groups - including, most prominently, the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims, known by its Arabic acronym JNIM (Jama’at Nasr al-Islam wal Muslimin) - are central perpetrators. According to data from the Armed Conflict Location and Event Data Project (ACLED), kidnappings have increased over 30-fold since 2017, when the security situation in Burkina Faso began to sharply deteriorate (rising from eight incidents in 2017 to 262 in 2021 and 219 in 2022).
Reading of the Week: The silent threat. Kidnappings in Burkina Faso
The Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
Recent weeks have seen growing closeness between China and Iran, which peaked with the signing of several important bilateral agreements and successful Chinese mediation between Beijing and Riyadh. What lies behind this rapprochement and what obstacles lie ahead?
Whither Iran and China? A Limited Partnership, yet Deep and Durable
The Institute for National Security Studies
In the longer term, the increased flow of weapons will likely exacerbate tensions in the region, spur Arab states to enhance their own arsenals, and endanger any U.S. and partner forces that confront Tehran’s proxies.
What the Russia-Iran Arms Deals Mean for the Middle East
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
From their earliest days, Hezbollah and Hamas have seen immense value in closely monitoring Israel’s media. However, their reliance on open-source information has proven a double-edged sword, as both groups have been misled into making poor strategic decisions. Either Hezbollah or Hamas is likely to identify the current crisis in Israel over the new government’s proposed reform of Israel’s judiciary as an opportunity to act against it.
Will Hamas and Hezbollah Try Again to Tear the Israeli Spiderweb?
Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
The activities of a Private Military Company (PMC) traditionally involve 3 other parties: the Contracting State, the Territorial State and the Home State. While Western Contracting States generally recognize the Montreux Document (which reaffirms the international legal obligations of States) and Western PMCs observe the self-regulatory ‘International Code of Conduct’ (which serves as the governance and oversight mechanism), Russian PMCs operate in absence of any regulatory provision or national legal framework.
Strategic priorities for the Russian PMC WAGNER: geopolitics, propaganda and mercenary business
Royal Institute for International Relations
Since 1948, more than 1,000 UN personnel have been killed in malicious acts while serving in UN peacekeeping operations. Since 2013, the vast majority of fatalities have taken place in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). To address this trend, the UN Secretariat and member states have increasingly focused on strengthening the policy framework on accountability to peacekeepers.
Accountability for Crimes against Peacekeepers
International Peace Institute
Militaries seek to harness artificial intelligence for decision advantage. Yet AI systems introduce a new source of uncertainty in the likelihood of technical failures. Such failures could interact with strategic and human factors in ways that lead to miscalculation and escalation in a crisis or conflict. Harnessing AI effectively requires managing these risk trade-offs by reducing the likelihood, and containing the consequences of, AI failures.
Reducing the Risks of Artificial Intelligence for Military Decision Advantage
Center for Security and Emerging Technology
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) must adopt a flexible Human Security (HS) approach that can adapt to changing security concerns and addresses the concerns of the Women, Peace, and Security (WPS) community. Failure to address these concerns could put NATO at risk of falling short of its aspirations for both WPS and HS, potentially jeopardizing the safety of NATO citizens during active conflicts or crises.
Forward Together: Women, Peace, & Security & Human Security at NATO
Stimson Center
Comprising everything from small-scale, near-shore activity to industrial-scale, long-distance operations, the current IUU fishing threat has the potential to evolve significantly in a warming world. A global horizon scan explores the impacts of climate change on IUU fishing over the next 10 years and beyond. Illegal, IUU fishing is a multifaceted global threat, occurring worldwide in inland waters, exclusive economic zones (EEZs) and on the high seas.
Future Illegal, Unreported and Unregulated Fishing Trends in a Warming World: A Global Horizon Scan
Royal United Services Institute
Iranian drone strikes, as exemplified by the September 2019 attack against Saudi Aramco facilities, have jolted Middle East leaders and revealed Tehran’s long-range precision strike capabilities. The regime’s large and growing drone force, which can be used for reconnaissance or strike missions, now poses an existential threat to the Gulf states and a direct threat to Israel, as does its formidable missile force. Moreover, Iranian drones transferred to Russia have had a significant impact on Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
Reading of the Week: Striking Back. Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Businesses thriving on corrupt behavior and a weak and corrupt public sector often go hand in glove. The public sector is either the counterpart of corrupt businesspeople or is responsible for contributing to poor governance by failing to implement laws and regulations, or actively protects corrupt players via a corrupt, or simply incompetent, judiciary system. For corruption to grow in the private sector, authorities have to be complicit and, when they are, a culture of corruption starts spreading.
On the Need to Carefully Calibrate International Sanctions as an Instrument to Fight Corruption in the MENA Region
Euromesco
Since the British withdrawal from the Persian Gulf in the early 1970s, Oman has relied on the United States as a key defense partner, and successive U.S. presidential administrations have considered Oman important to the promotion of regional stability and peace in the Middle East. Over the past decade, Oman has played the role of discreet mediator having served an intermediary in seeking to resolve the ongoing civil conflict in Yemen.
Oman: Politics, Security, and U.S. Policy
Congressional Research Service
This work empirically examines China’s growing footprint in Sub-Saharan Africa’s investment, trade, cultural, and security landscape over the past two decades. It highlights China’s increasing appetite for Sub-Saharan Africa’s natural resources and growing young labor force-identifying the region’s consumer market as an important destination for Chinese goods and services over the next few decades.
China in Sub-Saharan Africa: Reaching far beyond natural resources
Atlantic Council
The agreement signed by the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian government on 2 November 2022 offers a real chance to end one of the bloodiest wars in the world. The implementation of the agreement is going well so far. However, the peace process has brought into focus the question of a stable distribution of power within Ethiopia and in the Horn of Africa.
Sustaining Peace in Ethiopia
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
Cattle rustling in Mali surged in 2021 and continues at unprecedented levels, with the dominant perpetrators being violent extremist groups operating in the country. The scale of cattle rustling in Mali is the climax of a decade of growth of the practice, and cattle rustling is now a central and under-reported element of the country’s security crisis variously as a driver of conflict, as a governance and intimidation mechanism, and as a key source of revenue for non-state armed groups.
Locked horns: Cattle rustling and Malis war economy
Global Initiative
This report summarizes, and builds on, some of the author’s previous conceptual work. It approaches the definition of terrorism from five angles: (i) by focusing on the history of terrorism;(ii) by focusing on the psychology of ‘terror’ (the threat and fear factor); (iii) by focusing on forms of political violence other than terrorist violence; (iv) by focusing on the terrorist act; and (v) by focusing on the terrorist. Subsequently it addresses the question who should have definition power? The author looks at how terrorists, mass and social media, national governments, the United Nations, and members from academia have tried to define terrorism. In his conclusion, the author pleads for a narrow definition of terrorism. The main body of the text is followed by a sample of definitions of terrorism and a bibliography of books, book chapters, and articles on the subject.
Reading of the Week: Defining Terrorism
International Center for Counter Terrorism
The World Energy Transitions Outlook outlines a vision for the transition of the energy landscape to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement, presenting a pathway for limiting global temperature rise to within 1.5°C of pre-industrial levels and bringing CO2 emissions to net zero by mid-century.
World Energy Transitions Outlook 2023
International Renewable Energy Portal
Once allies in the same organization, Hayat Tahrir alSham (HTS) and the Islamic State have an interesting history that turned them into ‘frenemies’ from April 2013 to February 2014 and then outright enemies over the past nine years.This led to a broader global fight between alQa`ida and the Islamic State. Yet, HTS continued to tread its own path by breaking from al-Qa`ida in 2016. From the spring of 2014 to the summer of 2017, the main avenue by which HTS and its predecessor group, Jabhat al-Nusra, dealt with the Islamic State was insurgent infighting. Yet since the summer of 2017, as HTS consolidated control over areas in northwest Syria and developed a governance apparatus, HTS has favored a lawfare approach to dealing with Islamic State cells in the territory it controls.
Jihadi Counterterrorism: Hayat Tahrir al-Sham Versus the Islamic State
The Washington Institute
China’s engagement with Asian regions beyond its geographical periphery has grown exponentially since the 1990s and this is nowhere more evident than in West Asia and the Persian Gulf subregion. While energy drove China’s early interactions with the Gulf states, within two decades after the Cold War the relationships had evolved into much tighter networks of partnerships. China’s relations with the Gulf states, however, has not been uniform and the case studies of the United Arab Emirates and Iran highlight the complexities of China’s strategy in this subregion and the ways in which it actively pursues its diverse set of interests.
Chinas Grand Vision and the Persian Gulf
Istituto Affari internazionali
Cutting off al Shabaab’s estimated $100 million in extortion-generated annual revenue will require restoring the integrity of Somalia’s compromised financial, judicial, and intelligence agencies.Despite setbacks, al Shabaab remains a resilient and destabilizing threat in Somalia. In the past year, it was linked to 2,553 violent events and 6,225 fatalities. This represents nearly a doubling in the number of incidents since 2019. Fatalities involving al Shabaab have increased by 120 percent during this period.A key means by which al Shabaab has remained resilient is the estimated $100 million in revenue it generates annually. By comparison, the Federal Government of Somalia accrues approximately $250 million in annual revenue.
Reclaiming Al Shabaabs Revenue
Africa Center For Strategic Studies
In a recent football game between Tunisia and Senegal, Senegalese players celebrated their victory by proudly pointing at the colour of their skin. The gesture comes following weeks of a fierce racist campaign against sub-Saharan African migrants in the country, resulting in many fleeing the country. Ensuingly, a boycott campaign against Tunisian products in certain sub-Saharan countries has been launched. A leaked internal document by the World Bank announced it is pausing its partnership with Tunisia over the State’s racist rhetoric and the attacks victimizing sub-Saharan Africans.
The Disjunction of Black and White Africa: The Case of the Racist Campaign Against Sub-Saharan Africans in Tunisia
Brussels International Center
On 6 February, six zones and five special woredas in the Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples Regional State (SNNPR) held a referendum on statehood to determine whether the zones – Wolayta, Gamo, Gofa, South Omo, Gedeo and Konso – and special woredas – Derashe, Amaro, Burji, Basketo and Ale – will form a separate autonomous state or remain within the SNNPR. This was the third such referendum on statehood to be held in the region since Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed came to power in 2018.
Referendum in Ethiopias Southern Region
Rift Valley Institute
In anticipating South Africa’s role as the 2023 BRICS chair, this paper tracks the progress on the commitments listed and engages on the expectations of South Africa. How agendas are nationalized and implemented speaks to the value that each BRICS member can bring to the partnership. Entering 2023, South Africa faces similar challenges to 2018 related to service delivery in vital sectors such as energy, security, health and education, under more difficult global circumstances
BRICS XV: Expectations for South Africas 2023 chair
The South African Institute of International Affairs
This report shows that ongoing transformations in multilateral cooperation and intensifying global challenges are making multilateralism vulnerable to strategic competition when it comes to its conduct, fundamental norms, and in respect of its aims. The report contends that while formal multilateral institutions are not forsaken in principle, alternative forums are often prioritised in practice. Different powers utilise both the UN system, as well as alternative institutions, broad and more narrow-based informal institutions such as the G Groups, and ad hoc formations. Regional multilateralism is gaining ground as an attractive alternative form of cooperation.
Multilateral cooperation in an era of strategic competition: Options for influence for Finland and the European Union
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
The important and precedent-setting agreement between the Ministry of Defense and the Treasury is analyzed here from three perspectives: the power of Minister Smotrich in the Defense Ministry; the change in policy on human resources; and the approval of the multiyear security budget for a multiyear plan. The main message is that notwithstanding the plan’s stability and innovation and its positive potential in terms of security establishment buildup and improved conditions of service in the IDF, the prospects are overshadowed by the complexity of the change in power structure, reflected in the agreement with respect to the Palestinian arena. There is also a lack of clarity over the actual implementation of the agreement, and in particular, the concern that if the government’s other commitments are implemented, and above all the legislation undermining conscription, the positive and bold understandings in the agreement on the human resources model for the army will undermine the stability of the “people’s army” model. Moreover, defining a multiyear budget outline without an approved multiyear plan for buildup and without the necessary decisions, mainly over the function of the ground forces and the required achievements of the campaign, could mean that the heavy costs will not be translated into actual readiness for a complex multi-theater scenario.
The Agreement between the Ministry of Defense and the Treasury- Prospects and Risks
The Institute for National Security Studies
The United States has reportedly asked Israel to supply Ukraine with its long-retired Hawk missile defense system, despite the fact that the components of these systems are in serious disrepair and no longer operational. This request places Jerusalem in a difficult diplomatic position. While it wishes to stand with the Western bloc, it must also carefully manage its relationship with Moscow, which has the power to disrupt Israel’s efforts to control hostile Iranian movements in Syria as well as threaten Israel’s open channel to Russia’s remaining Jewish population.
Israeli Hawk Missiles and the War in Ukraine
The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
To reflect on the future of the UN al-Qaida and Da’esh/ISIL sanctions regime established by UN Security Council Resolution 1267 (1999) and its subsequent iterations (henceforth, the ‘1267 sanctions regime’), it is worth briefly recalling its history. Al-Qaida attacked the U.S. Embassies in Dar Es Salaam, Tanzania and Nairobi, Kenya in 1998. In the aftermath, the United Nations adopted Security Council Resolution 1267 in 1999, imposing sanctions on al-Qaida and the Taliban. Much happened over the following five years, including of course the 9/11 terrorist attacks in New York and the establishment of new UN Security Council subsidiary bodies like the Counter Terrorism Committee (CTC). In that climate of greater seriousness about counterterrorism, it was deemed necessary to create a group of experts to support the 1267 Committee, and the monitoring Team (MT) of independent experts was established in 2004 to support the member states in the sanctions committee; the Monitoring Team has supported the development of sanctions case files, worked with member states and regional partners to produce regular threat assessments, and provide the 1267 Committee with such information and analysis as required.
The UN Al-Qaida and ISIL (Daesh) Sanctions Regime Impacts and Implications
The Soufan Center
Le 5 février 2023, le gouvernement malien finit par expulser le directeur de la division des droits de l’homme de la MINUSMA, quelques jours après avoir violemment dénigré la prise de parole dune défenseure des droits humains malienne devant le Conseil de sécurité.Dix ans après la mise en place de la Mission multidimensionnelle intégrée des Nations Unies pour la stabilisation au Mali (MINUSMA), lavenir de celle ci et de ses 15 000 militaires et policiers est plus que jamais incertain. Lopération de paix, autorisée en 2013 dans le sillon de lintervention militaire franco-africaine par un Conseil de sécurité alors uni derrière la « plume » française, est aujourd hui logiquement remise en question dans un contexte de défiance entre les partenaires traditionnels du Mali et les nouvelles autorités du pays.
Reading of the Week: MINUSMA à la carte ou fin de partie géopolitique au Mali
Le Rubicon
Climate change threatens sustainable development in Africa, particularly among poor and highly vulnerable countries which have contributed least to greenhouse gas emissions. The African Development Bank Group (hereafter the “Bank” or “AfDB”) has had a longstanding commitment to action on climate change and green growth, to ensure that development across the continent brings about growth that is not only economically empowering but also decarbonized, climate-friendly, environmentally sustainable, and socially inclusive.
Climate Change and Green Growth Strategic Framework: Operationalising Africas Voice - Action Plan 2021-2025
African Development Bank Group
The 2021 judgment of the EU General Court holds that ‘Western Sahara’ is separate from Morocco, imposing on Morocco a responsibility to secure Polisario’s consent to its exploitation of natural resources in ‘Western Sahara’ and its adjacent waters, allegedly based on the UN Friendly Relations Declaration, which states that a non-self-governing territory has “a status separate and distinct from the territory of the State administering it.” The phrase is originated in the General Assembly resolution 1541 (XV) in 1960, referring to “a territory which is geographically separate and is distinct ethnically and/or culturally” from the administering State.
The 2021 EU General Court Decision on Polisario v Council: Some Legal Considerations on the Status of the Moroccan Sahara
Policy Center Of The New South
During the 2022 U.S.-Africa Leaders Summit, the Biden-Harris Administration announced the launch of an $800 million initiative on Digital Transformation with Africa (DTA). DTA comes at a time when the African internet economy has been deemed “one of the largest investment opportunities of the past decade” and one that, despite setbacks from COVID-19, is on track to expand and further transform lives in the coming decade. The African Union’s (AU) Digital Transformation Strategy reflects growing political consensus that adopting digital technologies can create economic opportunities for Africa and the world. The market opportunity is clear: African governments are endeavoring to facilitate universal digital access for the 800 million Africans expected to be online by 2030, and an internet economy potential worth $180 billion by 2025.
Accelerating Africas Digital Transformation for Mutual African and U.S. Economic Prosperity
Wilson Center
China has displayed support for the Palestinians over past decades, and Israel, for its part, has chosen “elegantly to look the other way.” The last two years, however, have seen a change: China has heightened its rhetoric, and Israel has joined the global criticism of China’s human rights policies. How will this affect relations between Jerusalem and Beijing?
China, Israel, and the Palestinians: Navigating Politics and Economics
The Institute for National Security Studies
Imports of major arms by European states rose by 47 per cent between 2013–17 and 2018–22, while the global volume of international arms transfers fell by 5.1 per cent. There were decreases in arms transfers to Africa (–40 per cent), the Americas (–21 per cent), Asia and Oceania (–7.5 per cent) and the Middle East (–8.8 per cent) between the two periods. The five largest arms importers in 2018–22 were India, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Australia and China. The five largest arms exporters were the United States, Russia, France, China and Germany.
Trends in International Arms Transfers, 2022
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Amid widening West Bank violence, the far-right minister is pursuing a policy leading to de facto annexation, and it is unclear whether Netanyahu will cap these ambitions. On February 22-23, an Israeli government panel advanced plans to construct over seven thousand new housing units in various settlements, the largest such decision ever issued at a single planning meeting.
Israel Expands Settlements as Smotrich Increases His Authority
The Washington Institute
Germany and the EU plan to import hydrogen and its derivatives from the Arab Gulf states. Although Germany has signed a joint declaration of intent with the Sultanate of Oman to this end, its efforts focus primarily on Oman’s larger neighbors. However, it would be a mistake to overlook Oman’s potential role within German and European energy policy, geostrategy, and climate diplomacy. Oman’s ambitious hydrogen plans can provide Germany and the EU with affordable clean energy; and enhanced (trade) relations with the Sultanate align with a value-based approach to trade, support global climate action, and stabilize regional power balances.
Omani Hydrogen for Germany and the EU
Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik
The Middle East and North Africa is generally thought to be among the parts of the world where corruption spreads the fastest- and this is despite the progress of legislation in some MENA countries and the economic wealth in others. The role of women in the fight against corruption in the region is often ignored and underestimated. This column argues that more gender egalitarianism in a fair system can enhance efforts to reduce corruption.
Gender and corruption in MENA countries
Economic Research Forum
The surge in violent extremism in sub-Saharan Africa undermines hard-won development gains and threatens to hold back progress for generations to come. The need to improve understanding of what drives violent extremism in Africa, and what can be done to prevent it, has never been more urgent.
Against this backdrop of the surge in violent extremism in sub- Saharan Africa, and the continued prioritization of security-driven responses, UNDP initiated a follow-up study, Journey to Extremism in Africa: Pathways to Recruitment and Disengagement in 2020.
Reading of the Week: Journey to Extremism in Africa, Pathways to Recruitment and Disengagement
United Nations Development Programme
European policymakers increasingly view Africa as a theatre of strategic competition with rising powers. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has dramatically raised the stakes of geopolitical competition. It has heightened perceptions that Western interests are being challenged by rival actors, including in Africa. However, such interpretations tend to obscure Africa’s growing autonomy in an increasingly competitive international order.
Strategic Competition and Cooperation in Africa
Institute for Security Studies
The Sahel has been a trade and migration route for centuries. A convenient transit area for products transported by sea from coastal countries, the region has become the epicenter of a growing market for trafficked medical products. Factors such as limited access to quality, safe, effective and affordable medical products, corruption among law enforcement and customs officers and a lack of border controls have contributed to the creation of an environment conducive to trafficking in and beyond the Sahel countries, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and the Niger.
Trafficking In Medical Products In The Sahel
Transnational Organized Crime Threat Assessment
Globalization and extensive urbanization worldwide have brought cities to the forefront of global governance in a multilateral system designed and created for states. Cities have come to exercise power due in part to the inadequacy or ineffectiveness of inter-state action, but also because their democratic nature and immediate connection to the population make them legitimate actors. This Briefing Paper discusses the changing role played by cities transnationally as actors involved in global governance. It also seeks to increase awareness of the global rise of cities. The paper starts by exploring the empowerment of cities, followed by a discussion on the means through which cities exercise their power, as well as relevant policy sectors that constitute important parts of their global agenda. Finally, the Briefing Paper ponders the implications for the state-dominated international order.
Cities as global actors: Bringing governance closer to the people
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
For decades, climate researchers have highlighted the unprecedented emissions reductions necessary if we are to meet global mitigation ambitions. To achieve these reductions, the climate change mitigation scenarios that dominate the literature assume large-scale deployment of negative-emissions technologies, but such technologies are unproven and present considerable trade-offs for biodiversity and food systems. In response, energy researchers have postulated low energy demand scenarios as alternatives and others have developed models for estimating the minimum energy requirements for the provision of decent material living standards considered essential for human wellbeing.
Reducing global inequality to secure human wellbeing and climate safety: a modelling study
The Lancet Planetary Health
International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors recently discovered that Iran had enriched uranium to 84 percent, just short of weapons grade. The revelation, acknowledged by Tehran, has underscored that a return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action—the nuclear deal completed in 2015 and exited three years later by the Trump administration—is unlikely. It has also raised fears about further escalation by the Iranian regime, such as refusal to cooperate with the IAEA or even withdrawal from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. But Tehran may have unwittingly done Washington and its partners a favor by dispelling the illusory notion that the nuclear issue could be “parked.” The steady expansion of Iran’s nuclear activities and the lapsing of JCPOA restrictions mean that the danger of continuing the stalemate has mounted by the day.
Irans Nuclear Endgame Warrants a Change in U.S. Strategy
The Washington Institute
Since 2003, Iraq has lost a significant portion of the US$ 80 billion or more invested in the country’s electricity sector due to corruption, mismanagement, political interference, security unrest, electric grid encroachment, and the absence of a practical electric tariff system. Since 2008, successive Iraqi governments have signed several multibillion-dollar contracts and agreements with power giants to build and maintain the country’s power plants. However, these efforts have been unsuccessful. Siemens and GE are likely to dominate the sector without a monopoly, as they have Iraqi partners interested in maintaining the status quo. Since 2008, successive Iraqi governments have signed several multibillion-dollar contracts and agreements with power giants to build and maintain the country’s power plants. However, these efforts have been unsuccessful
Corruption, Incoherent Energy Plan, and Poor Management Fuel Iraqs Power Crisis
Emirates Policy Center
American and European allies are mobilizing to thwart the rapid expansion of the Russian paramilitary group known as Wagner, run by a Putin-affiliated oligarch, as it captures key cities for Moscow in Ukraine and spreads its influence to Africa and other corners of the world. With tens of thousands of fighters, many of them now battlefield-trained, the Wagner Group’s emergence as a rogue military threat could become a serious global challenge in years to come, U.S. and European officials said.
Inside the stunning growth of Russias Wagner Group
The Geopost
Since the election of al-Sisi in 2014, the main drivers of Egypt’s economy have been its construction and extractive sectors. Based on official data, these sectors have done a decent job in boosting the country’s GDP that has increased faster than that of many of Egypt’s neighbours.
The Egyptian political economy under al-Sisi
Clingendael
The scale of demand for fuel in the Sahel countries is unclear. The ratio of registered vehicles to people is low and per capita daily gasoline consumption in region is estimated to be among the lowest in the world. The five Sahel countries, Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania and the Niger, are estimated to consume a combined total of just over 90,500 barrels of motor gasoline and distillate fuel oil (diesel) per day, or just over 33 million barrels per year, which is equivalent to over five billion litres consumed per year
Fuel Trafficking in the Sahel
Transnational Organized Crime Threat Assessment
The report provides background information and whenever available data about deserting and defecting pathways out of Al-Shabaab militant group. After distinguishing between the formal and the informal options, the report engages with the main challenges and consequences associated with them. Men, women, and children’s profiles, as well as forms of engagement with the group, are discussed as key determinants of potentially available pathways. Complementing this overview, which is based on research findings limited in scope and representativeness, the report relies on a pool of expert interviews which help shed some light on the unreported and underreported aspects of the issues at stake.
Somalia: Defection, desertion and disengagement from Al-Shabaab
European Country of Origin Information Network
Current Chinese basing capacity and force commitment in the region seem insufficient to support the level of economic and diplomatic engagement that appears to be Beijing’s new normal, so Washington should prepare for further expansion.
Chinas Growing Naval Influence in the Middle East
The Washington Institute
This study reviewed academic and grey literature and related policy debates to ascertain whether women’s economic empowerment, in all these dimensions, has been integrated into discussion of low-carbon transitions.
From Consumers to Climate Leaders
Gender Equality in a Low Carbon World
The Russian army and Russian private military contractors linked to the Kremlin have expanded their global military footprint in Africa, seeking basing rights in a half dozen countries and inking military cooperation agreements with 28 African governments, according to an analysis by the Institute for the Study of War. U.S. officials estimate that around 400 Russian mercenaries operating in the Central African Republic (CAR), and Moscow recently delivered military equipment to support counterinsurgency operations in northern Mozambique.
Russias Footprint in Africa
Center for Security Studies ETH Zurich
This study looks at the links between cattle rustling in East Africa’s Karamoja Cluster and the flow of illicit arms into this ungoverned space. It looks at the actors involved in the illicit arms trade, the sources of the weapons, and the need for responses other than civilian disarmament exercises, which so far have been unsuccessful.
Reading of the Week: Illicit arms flows in the Karamoja Cluster
Enhancing Africa’s response to transnational organized crime
Successive protests in 2009, 2019 and 2022 have poignantly laid bare the much reduced social and political legitimacy of Iran’s ruling elites. Reform-from-within is no longer viewed as credible. Even former pro-reform leaders like Mousavi have abandoned hope and call for regime change. While further protests are inevitable, it is nevertheless unlikely that they will produce a revolution that overthrows the regime in the short-term, as long as their national organisation and leadership remain weak, Iran’s ruling elites cohesive, security forces loyal, and the administration continues to function.
Protests in Iran in comparative perspective
Clingendael
“The way out is through the door. Why not use this exit?” Do these words by Confucius apply to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? The Arab Peace Initiative to resolve the conflict was presented over twenty years ago, but to date most Israeli governments have chosen to ignore it or reject it. Why now might it be the time to give it a chance?
Reality-Guided Imagination: The Angel of History Considers the Palestinian Issue
The Institute for National Security Studies
Despite progress made in female participation in public, political, and economic life, the MENA region still faces challenges in achieving gender equality. This newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the MENA region’s most significant issues and trends, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on possible future scenarios.
Women in the MENA Region: Between Progresses and Obstacles
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
La plupart des écosystèmes arides et semi-arides d’Afrique sont dédiés à différents types d’élevage extensif. Ces systèmes sont des acteurs majeurs dans la valorisation des espaces, et des ressources naturelles. En plus de nourrir les humains et les animaux, l’élevage pastoral fournit un revenu de subsistance à des populations qui ne pourraient survivre autrement dans ces régions.
Le pastoralisme en péril en Afrique
Policy Center for the New South
Decentralisation has been one of the most prominent public sector reforms endorsed by international institutions. It has been initiated in a large number of developing economies, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. To date, few studies propose a quasi-experimental evaluation of its capacity to contribute to local development or do so but only focus on specific components.
Shine a (night)light: Decentralisation and economic development in Burkina Faso
Overseas Development Institute
This paper contributes to the scholarship on gender and migration through empirical insights into motherhood while in transit and smuggling. It explores how undocumented, West African migrant mothers experience and navigate the temporal and spatial confinement of the Tunisian–Libyan borderlands, border enforcement and counter-smuggling policies confining them and their children to the limbo of indefinite waiting, danger, and uncertainty that they can, however, address through smuggling journeys.
Reading of the week: A Mothers Choice - Undocumented motherhood, waiting and smuggling in the Tunisian-Libyan borderlands
Danish Institute for International Studies
In Africa and the Arab World, throughout different stages of the war in Ukraine, the public debate and the popular discourse around it showed substantial sympathy towards Russia. While disinformation played a part in shaping those sentiments, the pro-Russian discourse cannot be reduced to just that. African and Arab social media users tend to adopt pro-Russian narratives on the Ukraine war when they resonate with locally relevant, long-established issues, worldviews, grievances, and prejudices.
Fertile ground: How Africa and the Arab World found common language with Russia on Ukraine
Polish Institute of International Affairs
Conflicts and violence all over the world exacerbate social and gender inequalities, with a negative impact on the lives of many women and girls. Moreover, a concentration of power in the hands of men has often prevented women from being structurally included in government policies, with their rights threatened. Yet, there is a strong presence of women peacebuilders who contribute to promoting solutions that can ensure lasting peace, thus opposing extremist tendencies.
Women and Conflicts: What Role for Women Mediator Networks?
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The world has entered a second space age dominated by commercial actors and a new geopolitical struggle. While advances in technology and commercialization are moving at rocket speed, regulation is falling catastrophically behind. International space policy has so far been dominated by the world´s greater powers but there are now obvious steps Denmark and other small states can take to assume a more responsible stance in space governance.
Governing Outer Space: Legal issues mounting at the final frontier
Danish Institute for International Studies
Iranian drone strikes, as exemplified by the September 2019 attack against Saudi Aramco facilities, have jolted Middle East leaders and revealed Tehran’s long-range precision strike capabilities. The regime’s large and growing drone force, which can be used for reconnaissance or strike missions, now poses an existential threat to the Gulf states and a direct threat to Israel, as does its formidable missile force.
Striking Back: Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East
The Washington Institute
Although U.S.-Saudi bilateral ties are on the mend, ambiguities and the transactional nature of the 1945 oil-for-security covenant contribute to mistrust and mutual tensions. But the burden of fixing or stabilizing the relationship is a shared responsibility. For its part, Saudi Arabia should make a determined and demonstrable effort to address legitimate U.S. concerns, including human rights, oil production policy, security overtures to Beijing, and the war in Yemen.
After Oil-For-Security: A Blueprint for Resetting US-Saudi Security Relations
Middle East Institute
The growing competition between the West and China over the chips manufacturing market is perceived as “the Cold War of the 21st century.” How does this technology struggle between the global blocs affect Israel, and what measures should Israel take?
The Chips Alliance: How will the Global Technology War Affect Israel?
The Institute for National Security Studies
Liberia exhibits a high reliance on imports of staple foods which is worsened by vulnerability to market shocks, supply chain disruptions and global food-price volatility, especially due to the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis. The Liberia Food and Agriculture Delivery Compact outlines a plan increase local productivity in four priority value chains-rice, rubber, cassava and livestock - in order to reduce reliance on imports and provide an essential platform for interministerial coordination in agriculture.
Liberia Country Food and Agriculture Delivery Compact
African Development Bank Group
In Sudan, the revolutionary upsurge of 2018/2019 signaled the implosion of the country’s postcolonial political order. The political parties of old have seen their social bases wither away and their ideological hold over the Sudanese people corrode under the sustained pressure of a hyper-extractive political economy.
The Price of Life: Revolutionary Agency and Political Impasse in Post-Bashir Sudan
Rift Valley Institute
This edition focuses on the Wagner Group private military company. Firstly, Andreas Heinemann-Grüder summarizes the development of Wagner since 2014/15, highlighting that it operates in coordination with Russian security agencies as a parallel or shadow army that can rarely be held accountable. Secondly, Stephen Aris considers how Wagner’s prominent, if not officially acknowledged, role in the offensive on Ukraine has accelerated a process of semi-privatizing certain functions of state security.
Reading of the Week: Wagner Group
Center for Security Studies ETH Zurich
As the 37th Israeli government begins its term of office, it faces a host of national security challenges, from the Temple Mount, to the Palestinian theater, the security challenges in the north, and the complex threat from Iran, most of which have a significant international dimension. Against the background of the strategic competition between the great powers, the war in Ukraine, and the struggle for technological-economic dominance, the new government must navigate prudently between the United States, Israel’s great strategic ally; and China, its significant economic partner, Russia, its military neighbor in the north; and other important countries in Asia and Europe.
Whither the China Policy of the Sixth Netanyahu Government?
Institute for National Security Studies
‘If, as Herodotus stated, Egypt is the gift of the Nile, then it is a gift largely delivered by donkeys.’ Some 7 000 years ago in East Africa, Nubian and Somalian donkeys and their new pastoralist owners planted the seeds of early global trade and travel. The donkey (Equus asinus) was gradually adopted as a domesticated species beyond Eastern Africa, in Egypt and Sudan, and across the African continent and Eurasia.
China, Africa and the market for donkeys: Keeping the cart behind the donkey
The South African Institute for International Affairs
This was a meeting on Iraq. Special Representative and head of UNAMI Ms. Jeanine Hennis-Plasschaert briefed on recent developments in Iraq and the Secretary-General’s reports on UNAMI (S/2023/58) and the issue of missing Kuwaiti and third-party nationals and missing Kuwaiti property (S/2023/51).
Resolution 9253 The situation concerning Iraq
UN Security Council
“End the summer camp” was how Minister of National Security Ben-Gvir related to the changes he plans in the conditions of the security prisoners incarcerated in Israel. There is no question that reforms here are in order. However, given that the issue of prisoners is a highly sensitive issue and enjoys a consensus throughout Palestinian society, it is quite possible that a worsening of the prisoners’ conditions might lead to escalation, perhaps even to a severe degree. How should Israel act?
The Incarceration of security prisoners - What is possible, and what is correct
The Institute for National Security Studies
In the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, violence against women (VAW) is referred to as a silent cancer that often goes undetected and unreported. Society in this region is becoming more aware of the epidemic, yet it is still not gender-sensitive to its causes or implications.
Criminalization of Gender-Based Violence: A Legal Obligation
Wilson Center
Although positivity around Russia-Africa relations was observed, most notably in South Africa and Mali, the surveyed populations presented as generally indifferent to or negative towards Russia. The Russia-Ukraine war was a key driver of anti-Russia attitudes. Additionally, the data found a division in sentiment between some African governments and their citizens, who tend to be more wary of associating with Moscow and Russian President Vladimir Putin. Data suggested measurable bot activity present in pro-Russia sentiment across all surveyed countries. Given the latest developments such as the referendums in eastern Ukraine and the Nord Stream pipelines leak, additional analyses on data collected from Kenya, Nigeria, and South Africa found evidence of continued strong anti-Russian sentiment — even where Twitter users speculated about Western interference.
African Social Media Indicates Indifference towards Russia
The South African Institute for International Affairs
This synthesis report offers an examination of national development banks (NDBs) in Africa, drawing from case studies in four countries: Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, Rwanda and Tunisia. It discusses their evolution in governance structures and operations, their financial and developmental performance, and the challenges they face within their operating environments.
Challenges and Changes: The Political Economy of National Development Banks in Africa
African Center fo Economic Transformation
According to the Puntland voter registration law (2021), to hold credible and transparent elections, voters must be registered to vote in a process managed by the Transitional Puntland Election Commission (TPEC). The registration process is one of the most challenging phases in the election process, as it often involves numerous technical and administrative tasks that require resources and political will, which can lead to delays in the process. 0n 25th May 2022, TPEC released the schedule for the local elections, which included a list of proposed activities from May 2022 to February 2023.
Initial Phase of Puntlands Voter Registration Process
Rift Valley Institute
The Illicit Economies and Instability Dialogues are integral to the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC)’s work in West Africa. The Dialogues are an opportunity for experts in illicit economies, civil society organizations, regional government representatives, foreign policy and development officials, external experts and stakeholders to discuss contemporary, policy-relevant themes on the intersections between illicit economies, conflict and instability in West and central Africa. The Dialogues are supported by and co-hosted with the Federal Foreign Office of Germany.
Reading of the Week: The role of national parks in illicit economies and conflict dynamics
Gobal Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
The fundamental role that water resources play in human development has been highlighted in multiple ways; the United Nations SDGs underline 17 different goals and over a hundred targets to be achieved by 2030. Out of 169 SDG targets, 59 were found to have direct links and synergies with the water goal SDG6 (UN Water, 2016). Careful policy making and interventions need to be implemented to avoid conflict among sectors and tradeoffs must be well established. The Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM – since 1992) was adopted by most countries and made significant strides in formulating a good foundation for policies and synergies between stakeholders.
Systems approach to water management
Policy Center for the New South
In October 2022, the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) was convened, inaugurating the third term of Xi Jinping as CCP chairman (the de facto highest position in the country). One month before, in September, a summit meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) was held in Samarkand, Uzbekistan. President Xi, who had frozen his foreign trips since the outbreak of the Covid-19 pandemic, finally left China to participate in this face-to-face meeting to restart putting his “great power diplomacy with Chinese characteristics” into practice There is no doubt that China – the second largest economy in the world, which is proud to be “different” from Western civilisation – is challenging the global order, at least to some extent. The issue is, what direction will China’s foreign policy take in the future? How will it affect the existing international order?
Fighting Against Internal and External Threats Simultaneously Chinas Police and Satellite Cooperation with Autocratic Countries
Istituto Affari Internazionali
In recent days, Jordan has led the way in Arab countries’ rapprochement with Syria. But Amman’s experience shows that, without regional coordination, bilateral normalization can win only limited concessions.
Jordans Experiences Highlight the Limitations of Renewed Ties With Syria
Carnegie Middle East Center
The Arabian (Persian) Gulf region has been at the center of global attention for the past century. Due to its strategic geographic location and rich hydrocarbon resources, the Gulf has played a key role in political and economic developments around the world. The Gulf states have relied on their abundance of hydrocarbons, particularly oil, to pursue economic and political activities that serve their national interests — in many cases fueling geopolitical tensions with other global actors. In order to mitigate regional and global conflict, it is imperative to recognize and address the factors that drive the evolution and development of the Gulf oil strategy.
How Economic and Political Factors Drive the Oil Strategy of Gulf Arab States
Baker Institute for Public Policy
Yemen is becoming an ever more fragmented country – to such an extent that it may soon be impossible ever to piece it back together again. A combination of internal dynamics exacerbated by the actions of neighbouring states has brought Yemen to this pass. For the international community, and the European Union and European states, addressing this will be difficult – but they can do so by providing long-term help, rather than lurching between short-term fixes.
Fragmentation Nation: How Europeans Can Help End The Conflict In Yemen
European Council on Foreign Relations
The Greater Lake Chad (GLC) region was identified as one of twelve transnational conflict geographies in which Search will focus its efforts over the coming ten years.
This summary lays out Search’s comprehensive strategy for the GLC region, composed of the countries bordering the Lake Chad Basin, including Nigeria, Niger, Chad and Cameroon. The multidimensional and transborder dimensions of conflict in the region demand a holistic, regional programmatic, and operational strategy.
Greater Lake Chad Strategy
Search for Common Ground
Despite serious challenges, Africa's youthful electorates vie to have their voices heard so as to shape a more democratic, stable, and prosperous future.Spanning West, Central, and Southern Africa, the seven elections in Africa this year comprise some of the most populous countries on the continent. This includes Nigeria, which kicks off the electoral calendar in February, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, with elections slated for late December. Collectively, the countries selecting national leaders in 2023 represent roughly a third of the continent’s population.In five of the elections (Democratic Republic of the Congo, Liberia, Madagascar, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe), incumbents are seeking a second term. There is only one open seat, in Nigeria, as President Muhammadu Buhari steps down after his constitutionally mandated second term.
Africas 2023 Elections
Africa Center For Strategic Studies
Anecdotal evidence suggests growing numbers of migrants intercepted at sea by the Tunisian coastguard return to Libya via smuggling. This article empirically document the experiences of “rescued” migrant mothers who consider and/or purposely re-engage in irregular, highrisk returns involving crossing the Tunisian border back into Libya.
A Mothers Choice: Undocumented motherhood, waiting and smuggling in the Tunisian Libyan borderlands
Danish Institute for International Studies
The fallout of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has had major consequences for Russia’s engagement around the world in 2022. West Africa is no exception. Russia has sought to increase its political involvement in Africa since the 2014 invasion of Crimea. But as Russia has become more economically and politically isolated under the increasing weight of Western sanctions, the importance of Africa as a strategically significant region for Russia to engage in, both to facilitate business opportunities and to court political allies, has escalated.
Reading of the week: Russias military, mercenary and criminal interests in West Africa grew in 2022 and look set to expand in 2023
Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime
In 2021, a diverse group of actors - from scientists to social activists, practitioners to academics - organized a global citizens’ assembly for that year’s UN Climate Change Conference (COP26) in Glasgow. The Global Assembly was an attempt to redress some of the failings of the COP process of climate summits, which have been running for almost thirty years.
A Global Citizens Assembly on the Climate and Ecological Crisis
Carnegie Europe
En 2000, le Conseil de sécurité des Nations Unies a adopté la résolution 1325, sa première résolution thématique sur les femmes, la paix et la sécurité, qui reconnait notamment le rôle crucial des missions de maintien de la paix dans la protection des civils contre les violences sexuelles liées aux conflits (VSLC).
Nous Devons Rompre le Silence DUne Manière ou DUne Autre: Prévenir les violences sexuelles liées aux conflits dans les opérations de maintien de la paix de lONU
Center for Civilians in Conflict
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - are among the world’s richest in oil and gas resources, but the poorest in terms of freshwater. The majority of these countries depend on their hydrocarbon resources to fuel their economies and produce necessities like potable water through seawater desalination. In fact, all GCC states are currently prioritizing energy and water security to assure the sustainability and reliability of access and productivity under normal and emergency circumstances.
Building Water and Energy Security in the GCC through an Integrated Policy Approach
Baker Institute for Public Policy
In an interview in Haaretz on January 1, 2023, Maj. Gen. (res.) Tamir Hayman, former head of Military Intelligence and currently Managing Director of the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS), stated that the Israeli strategy that sought (and seeks) to fell the nuclear agreement with Iran has failed, and that the last three Prime Ministers of Israel pursued this aim without presenting an alternative program.
Is There an Alternative Strategy in Response to Irans Nuclear Progress?
The Institute for National Security Studies
More than a year after cancelled elections and a violent upheaval, Palestinians face the prospect of a destabilizing leadership transition. President Mahmoud Abbas, 87, continues to exert a strong hold on power, but his reign is unavoidably nearing its end. A smooth succession will be challenging, as Abbas holds three leadership posts.
Managing Palestines Looming Leadership Transition
Crisis Group
Cattle rustling in Nigeria has evolved from a sustainable community practice into a significant illicit economy, delivering material profits to conflict actors and multiplying harms. Since 2011, the country has experienced a surge in the number of rustling incidents, resulting in thousands of deaths, loss of livelihoods, widespread destruction and displacement of people. This has had a debilitating impact on the country’s stability, as explored in an earlier report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC).
Driving Destruction, Cattle rustling and instability in Nigeria
Global Initiative
Sahelian jihadists have occupied Park W, a huge nature reserve in the borderlands of Benin, Burkina Faso and Niger, transforming it into a launchpad for expansion toward the West African savannah. Their presence in the park is disrupting century-old conservation efforts as well as local livelihoods, feeding struggles among sedentary farmers and nomadic herders for land and water. It also risks aggravating insecurity in coastal countries farther south.
Containing Militancy in West Africas Park W
Crisis Group
This study on the state of the energy sector in Tunisia (including renewable energy) is based on the key premise that energy is not a profit-making commodity, but a right. The study argues that access to energy and its production are political questions in essence, rather than purely technical ones.
Towards a just energy transition in Tunisia
The Transnational Institute
Blue Nile region has been characterized by conflicts for several years but the situation worsened in 2022. Since 19th October, 2022 approximately 191 people were killed including Women and children and injuring 220 others from Gomez, Hausa and Berta tribes living in the towns of Arousers Dam in Wad Almahi locality in Blue Nile region. Additionally, 95,000 Hausa members were displaced to other States in Sudan and others crossed the boarders to Ethiopia as refugees. Approximately 30 Sudanese Army Forces (SAF) soldiers were tried and convicted by the military judiciary parish (military court) and sentenced to 15 to 20 years imprisonment depending on the charges as provided for under the SAF law, 1986. 10 MI officer were resultantly transferred from Blue Nile to other Sudanese states.
Reading of the Week: Analysis of Conflicts in Blue Nile Region
Africa Centre For Justice and Peace Studies
Are new winds blowing in China’s relations with Middle East states, or are they essentially more of the same? The visit by China’s President to Saudi Arabia was heralded as a “new era,” but what does this mean, and what can be understood from Beijing’s various statements about how it sees the region? Most important, how do these developments reflect China’s attitude toward Iran?
President Xi Jinpings Middle East Visit: The Chinese Perspective
The Institute for National Security Studies
This Working Paper argues that one should watch out for populism and what it implies for hybrid threat activity. Populism has an underlying authoritarian logic and thus undermines the main checks and balances, and the individual and public rights and liberties that regularly keep excesses of power at bay in a liberal democracy. The logic of authoritarianism can thus mechanically undermine the key frameworks of a liberal democracy. Hybrid threats present an essentially political challenge to liberal democracies.
Watching out for populism: Authoritarian logics as a vulnerability to hybrid threat activity
The European Centre of Excellence
How much is the public in the Arab world worried about the economic situation? the security situation? What percentage would like to emigrate? What are the attitudes toward Israel – and have these attitudes shifted in light of the Abraham Accords or Israel’s “change government”? An examination of public opinion polls conducted in the area reveals interesting insights about Israel’s neighboring countries, and these insights are important for decision makers in Jerusalem
What Do the Arabs Think? Public Opinion in Arab Countries
The Institute for National Security Studies
Washington will likely call upon Israel to participate in future multinational coalitions, which will entail IDF forces deploying to foreign countries as part of US-led operations. Israel has not participated in past coalitions due to regional threats and Washington’s desire to avoid complications with allied majority Muslim states. These two concerns were significantly diminished by the Abraham Accords, increasing the likelihood that Washington will seek Israel’s direct support in future campaigns.
Israels Future in Multinational Coalitions
The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
State-centric approaches to building resilience to organised crime must be complemented with community-based, context-specific responses that challenge organised crime and violence at a local level. Local communities are key elements of the necessary response to the destabilising impacts of organised crime in conflict as well as post-conflict settings. There remains a gap in stakeholder understanding of the elements of community resilience to organised crime, particularly in unstable settings. This report starts to address this gap, by analysing key drivers of community resilience – identified as social capital, community capacity, the role of women, economic capital and infrastructure – in four communities in Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Burkina Faso.
Building resilience to organised crime
ECOWAS
Morocco has successfully begun to connect its once-neglected eastern region to domestic and global economic resources. But it is vital to ensure that the benefits these initiatives bring are fairly reinvested in local communities.
Defying Peripherality. How Morocco Has Sought to Integrate Its Eastern Borderlands
Carnegie Middle East Center
Deceit and media manipulation have always been a part of wartime communications, but never before has it been possible for nearly any actor in a conflict to generate realistic audio, video, and text of their opponent’s political officials and military leaders. As artificial intelligence (AI) grows more sophisticated and the cost of computing continues to drop, the challenge deepfakes pose to online information environments during armed conflict will only grow.
Reading of the week: DeepFakes and international conflict
Brookings