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Prospects for the G5 SAHEL


The aim of the report is to enhance the understanding of the G5 SAHEL countries’ situation, factors and dynamics affecting the Sahel region’s stability and their relation with the G5 security framework.

Africa - Security & Conflict - Format: PDF - Size: 1.22 MB - Date: Jul, 2023 - Pages: 35 - Copyright: NATO Strategic Direction South HUB - Tags: Sahel, Cooperative security

G5 SAHEL so far did not lead to the desired outcome of stabilization in the region. Furthermore it is weakened by the exit of Mali. In a highly volatile security and political situation and increasing terrorist threat, and emerging strategic interests of non-African stakeholders in Africa as well as implications of the Russian aggression against Ukraine, G5 SAHEL committed to support democracy and good governance and to contribute to creating conditions for security and development of its members, faces a bundle of challenges such as unclear willingness of its members to invest on it,a slow strategic review process, security traffic jam, an unclear position of Burkina Faso.


Background

The aim of the report is to enhance the understanding of the G5 SAHEL countries’ situation, factors and dynamics affecting the Sahel region’s stability and their relation with the G5 security framework.
To give a better insight on prospects for G5 SAHEL the HUB developed the project using plausible scenarios, highlighting challenges and opportunities for G5 SAHEL and the SAHEL region. The HUB used structured analytic techniques, field visit and a workshop with local subject matter experts.

Key insights

  • Burkina Faso’s membership is a decisive condition for G5 SAHEL to succeed.
  • On a medium to long-term, the G5 SAHEL future is still highly unpredictable.
  • It is likely that G5 SAHEL will continue to exist.
  • G5 SAHEL will likely side with Western countries and will keep its holistic value based and multiple framework.
  • To be effective G5SAHEL needs state institution stability and a clear commitment to partnership with Western stakeholders.
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© Story by NATO Strategic Direction South HUB

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