The fall of the Assad regime was met with relief and hope by Syrians of all backgrounds, including even some former loyalists disillusioned with Assad’s inability to address Syria’s worsening crises. However, Syrians are now faced with a new government whose leadership remains largely unfamiliar
Syrias post-Assad honeymoon is over. Now the hard work of state-building begins
Atlantic Council
The fall of eastern Congo’s biggest city has sent thousands from their homes and – once again – left the Great Lakes on the edge of a wider war. African mediators with the concerted backing of external partners should move with speed to prevent more fighting
Fall of DRCs Goma: Urgent Action Needed to Avert a Regional War
International Crisis Group
With blue-helmet deployments shrinking, and facing political and financial headwinds, it may seem that the heyday of multilateral peacekeeping is over. But at UN headquarters in New York, the discussions about the subject are not quite so fatalistic.
Fresh Thinking about Peace Operations at the UN
International Crisis Group
Yemen’s 2024 unfolded as a pivotal year for regional power dynamics, with the Houthi armed group cementing its role as both a disruptive force and a significant player on the global stage. This development was heavily influenced by actions that began in late 2023
Yemen at Risk of Descending into Full-scale Civil War
International Centre for Dialogue Initiatives
More than a year has passed since the horrific attacks that took the lives of 1,200 innocent Israeli citizens on Oct. 7, 2023, a devastating day that led to many more devastating days in Gaza, where tens of thousands of innocent people have died and countless more have experienced suffering on an industrial scale
Saudi Arabias diversified support for a two-state solution
Middle East Institute
Faced with various threats and conflicts ranging from the persistence of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the danger of a wider regional war to the rise of nonstate actors that systematically use violence in internal and external conflicts, today’s Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries are drawing in China and Russia to compete with the United States over military presence, arms sales, energy and trade ties, and security roles.
Russia in the Middle East and North Africa: Arms, Power Projection and Nuclear Diplomacy
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the divide between the West and East. The latter, increasingly referred to as the Global South, is not a homogenous entity but rather a collection of groups of countries as well as separate big actors, such as India and Indonesia, that are motivated by varying degrees of anti-Westernism
For Gulf States, Gaza War Overshadows Ukraine
Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
New Israeli legislation, if fully enforced, would prevent the UN Relief and Works Agency from serving Palestinian refugees in the occupied territories. Such a de facto ban would be disastrous. Questions about the agency’s future should wait until after the Gaza war ends.
Keep UNRWA Alive in Gaza and the West Bank
International Crisis Group
Since the Israel-Gaza war erupted one year ago, the Middle East has been gripped by escalating conflict, humanitarian disaster and regional destabilisation. Despite ongoing international efforts to broker a ceasefire, tensions remain high.
Amid this turmoil, key regional players remain deeply concerned about an uncontrollable escalation. Saudi Arabia, in particular, finds itself in a delicate position: it seeks to maintain solidarity with the Palestinian cause while keeping perspectives for a pragmatic engagement with Israel on the table.
In Light of Regional Escalation: Saudi Arabias Not Alone Approach
Brussels International Center
Sudan’s civil war disrupted the political transition and work of the UN’s former special political mission UNITAMS, forcing it to depart the country. Taking a step back from the current conflict, this report reflects on the Security Council’s attempt to support the protection of civilians in country in the few years preceding the war.
Civilian Protection in Sudan: Emerging Lessons from UNITAMS
Stimson
Amid the turmoil, key regional players remain deeply concerned about an uncontrollable escalation. Saudi Arabia, in particular, finds itself in a delicate position: it seeks to maintain solidarity with the Palestinian cause while keeping perspectives for a pragmatic engagement with Israel on the table. Hence, the Israel-Gaza war presents a dilemma for Saudi Arabia, threatening its national, geostrategic and economic ambitions.
In Light of Regional Escalation: Saudi Arabias Not Alone Approach
Brussels International Center
The 2024 BRICS summit, to be held in Kazan, Russia, from October 22-24, will take place amid an increasingly tense geopolitical atmosphere. The crises in the Middle East and Ukraine are likely to dominate the agenda, as member states explore the future of the alliance and their nations’ roles within it.
South-Africa faces new dynamics at BRICS summit
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
On September 30, after a devastating ten-day stretch culminating in Israel’s killing of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, Lebanon’s caretaker prime minister Najib Mikati announced his government’s support for implementing UN Security Council Resolution 1701. The 2006 resolution was endorsed by Beirut, but the state never implemented its most important provision
In Lebanon, a Rare Moment of Opportunity
The Washington Institute
In July, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to discuss the war in Gaza and the future of the Middle East. Afterward, Harris stressed her commitment to a two-state solution for Israelis and Palestinians-in her words, “the only path that ensures Israel remains a secure Jewish and democratic state, and one that ensures Palestinians can finally realize the freedom, security, and prosperity that they rightly deserve.”
She is hardly alone in this sentiment.
A Two-State Solution That Can Work
Foreign Affairs
Too often when disasters strike, structural impediments as well as inadequate political will and resources deadlock and disable the United Nations (UN) from coherently and effectively responding. Recent worldwide shocks with extraordinary humanitarian impacts, notably the COVID-19 pandemic (2020–2022), the cost-of-living crisis (2022–), and Russia’s resurgent invasion of Ukraine (2022–) have prompted calls for the Organization to play a more pronounced role in coordinating aid at the same time as other demands for UN reform have looked to confront injustices in its structure and operations.
Complex Global Shocks, Emergency Platforms, and United Nations Reform
Stimson
A U.S.-led peace initiative to end Sudan’s brutal civil war took place in Geneva over the last two weeks. But despite invitations and extensive international pressure, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) declined to send a delegation to Switzerland altogether, while the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF) sent a delegation.
Reading of the Week: Without Sudans Warring Parties in Geneva, Whats Next for Peace Talks?
United States Institute of Peace
In an increasingly Hobbesian world that seems to be spinning out of control, there are currently some fifty state-based conflicts-more than at any time since World War II. Yet, not too long ago, an international consensus had emerged on the importance of an effective, shared response to instability-whether violent or substantial breakdowns in public order, mass migrations, or humanitarian crises.
How Great Power Competition Undermines Global Stability
The National Interest
The United States, Egypt, and Qatar are making a ‘last gasp’ diplomatic push to secure a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Mediators say that the latest truce offer, which they hope to finalize in Cairo this week, ‘bridges’ several contentious details that had thwarted previous talks. At the time of writing, the prospects for the negotiations look bleak. The terms of the ceasefire have yet to be fully disclosed, but they appear to have veered from earlier frameworks offered in May and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2735.
The real schism in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks is about who decides Gazas future
Chatham House
In recent months, as the United States has struggled to deter and degrade the Houthis, Yemen’s United Nations-recognized government has worked to dramatically increase economic pressure on the group. The economy, in particular revenue and liquidity, is the Houthis’ Achilles heel. This is where the group is most vulnerable, and this is exactly where the government in Aden is pressing.
This approach, however, also carries significant risks. In the short term, increasing economic pressure on the Houthis is likely to prompt them to reignite attacks on Saudi Arabia, while in the long term it could make reuniting Yemen into a single state all but impossible.
The Houthis Achilles Heel
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
One of Africa’s longest wars shifted toward a conclusion in July when France recognized Morocco’s claim of sovereignty over the Western Sahara. That action, alongside Morocco’s military advantage, effectively will leave the indigenous Sahrawi independence movement with no choice but to eventually settle for some form of autonomy within Morocco.
While this reality will be unsatisfactory for the estimated 173,000 Sahrawis living in refugee camps, their best option, and that of their backer, Algeria, is now to seize the opportunity to negotiate for best-possible peace terms with Morocco.
Western Saharas conflict is over. Negotiating the terms comes next
United States Institute Of Peace
The Guinean junta’s growing repression and intolerance for dissent risk derailing the promised transition back to civilian government while deepening the country’s humanitarian crisis.
A Stagnant Transition in Guinea
Africa Center For Strategic Studies
Lebanon’s central bank Banque du Liban has achieved 12 months of exchange rate stability. Foreign currency reserves have recently clawed back above $10 billion. At the one-year mark of Wassim Mansouri’s reign as acting governor, economist Layal Mansour lauds his disciplined implementation of a quasi-currency board solution but urges this solution’s full and formal adoption.
The paradox of the Lebanese pounds recent stability
Executive
Since Hamas’s October 7 attack on Israel, Russia has enjoyed watching the deteriorating situation in the Middle East preoccupy its main adversary, the United States. On April 13, however, Moscow grew concerned when, in retaliation for an attack on the Damascus consulate of Iran, its growing ally, Tehran launched more than 300 missiles and drones at Israel.
Reading Of The Week: What Russia Wants in the Middle East
Foreign Affairs
A new major battle broke out in the North Darfur city of El Fasher, which has been surrounded since April by the Rapid Support Forces (RSF). El Fasher is the only capital city in Darfur that is still controlled by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF). The SAF, backed by its allies, managed to conduct multiple offensive maneuvers on RSF strongholds in rural territories in North Darfur. During the clashes, the SAF claimed to have inflicted several casualties on the RSF, including killing the local operation commander.
Fighting deepens around El Fasher in Sudan, al-Shabaab loses territory in Somalia, and police crackdown on tax-related protests in Kenya
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data (ACLED)
A multi-sided battle is raging in Sudan’s long-stricken Darfur region. Hostilities centre on El Fasher, capital of North Darfur and home to the Sudanese army’s last stronghold in the region. Thousands of fighters from the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which is embroiled in a vicious year-long war with the army, control the town’s northern and eastern districts and have encircled the rest.
Halting the Catastrophic Battle for Sudans El Fasher
International Crisis Group
The international community hasn’t been successful in its efforts to support ‘stabilisation’ in the central Sahel. To learn lessons from recent engagement, this policy brief seeks to make three contributions to an already long list of ‘strategic misfits’
Constraints to stabilisation efforts and lesson learned from the Central Sahel
Clingendael
During the past decade, there has been a significant focus on autonomous weapon systems (AWS) in legal and policy discussions on the application of artificial intelligence (AI) in the military domain. In recent years, however, awareness has been increasing of the fact that the military applications of AI are much broader.
Reading of the Week: Artificial intelligence and related technologies in military decision-making on the use of force in armed conflicts
International Committee of the Red Cross
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian were killed on Sunday in a helicopter crash while returning from Iran’s East Azerbaijan province. The president’s death, along with that of one of his closest officials, comes at a very delicate time for the Islamic Republic, which has faced numerous domestic and international challenges over the past year.
Reading of the Week: Iran after Raisi: what comes next?
Istituto per gli Studi di Politica Internazionale
Data released by the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) in mid-2022 reveals a multifaceted scenario in North Africa. The region is home to approximately 1.4 million refugees and asylum seekers. Sudan has emerged as a significant host country, sheltering over 1.2 million individuals.
A Synergistic Approach to the OAU Refugee Convention and the Kampala Convention
Baker Institute for Public Policy
Iran’s decision to launch a direct, state-on-state attack against Israel on April 13 increased the risk of overt conventional conflict in the Middle East. This attack was significant in scope, scale, and complexity, employing hundreds of one-way attack drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles.
How Sustainable Are Defense and Deterrence Methods in Light of Irans Attack?
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
This research paper charts these dynamics, exploring their drivers and impacts. It focuses on how different actors – including government armed forces, local elites, and militias and rebel groups in border regions – have competed for control of farmlands, sesame production and trade. The paper also proposes solutions that might help to reduce violence and promote stabilization by addressing internal and transnational conflict dynamics affecting Ethiopia and Sudan.
The Conflict economy of sesame in Ethiopia and Sudan
Chatham House
Tensions between the United States and China are expanding beyond the Asia-Pacific region. The Middle East and North Africa is likely to be one of many venues in what might be a new Cold War between Washington and Beijing. We can imagine how Washington and Beijing’s respective global outlooks and ability to project (soft and hard) power could affect their future relations with the MENA region.
The US and China in the Middle East: Three scenarios for 2050
Middle East Institute
Continued violence in West Africa is sharpening America’s critical challenge to reduce extremism and violence, particularly in the Sahel. Violent deaths in three western Sahel nations surged by 38% last year and Niger’s coup has complicated the U.S. military role in the region
To Help Stabilize West Africa, Bolster a Key Partner: Nigeria
United States Institute of Peace
Iran’s direct drone and missile attack on Israel that lasted several hours on Saturday evening has changed the long-established terms of engagement between the two adversarial states. It has also taken the Middle East closer to a wider conflict that if uncontained will have serious and destabilizing ripple effects across the region.
Irans attack on Israel was not the failure many claim but it has ended Israels isolation
Chatham House
One year into the civil war in Sudan, the crisis facing the country and the region is only intensifying. Since the eruption of violence between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF)—rival factions of the country’s military—in April 2023, humanitarian needs have skyrocketed. More than 8.6 million people have been forced to flee, making it the largest displacement crisis in the world.
Sudans Crisis Requires a New Approach to International Aid
Lawfare
The Israeli attack on an Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, which killed seven senior military officials, was not the first time Israel has killed Iranian generals. It was uniquely audacious in that Israel struck a building claimed by Iran as a diplomatic facility.
Reading of the Week: Iran Carefully Weighs Response to Israeli Attack in Damascus
Stimson Center
Nearly six months into the Gaza war, Israel has come to the realization that the pre-October 7 status quo in south Lebanon is no longer tenable. Whether a new status quo is established through negotiation or force of arms, something will have to give—the question is when and under what circumstances. Either way, the United States can and should take more steps to defer escalation.
Changing the Israel-Lebanon Status Quo: U.S. Options
The Washington institute for Near East Policy
On 8 March, the UN Security Council adopted a UK-drafted resolution calling for an immediate cessation of hostilities in Sudan during the month of Ramadan, a sustainable resolution to the conflict through dialogue, compliance with international humanitarian law and unhindered humanitarian access.
Sudans forgotten war: A new diplomatic push is needed
Chatham House
Internal displacement has risen dramatically since the United Nations (UN) first began to draw attention to this issue in 1992, when there were an estimated 24 million internally displaced persons (IDPs) (UN, 1992). Today, there are more than three times that number.
Independent review of the humanitarian response to internal displacement
Humanitarian Policy Group
Historically, the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) has approached the problem of refugee displacement by working toward three optimal solutions: voluntary repatriation, local integration in the country where a refugee has sought asylum, and resettlement in a third country. These have all become more difficult to achieve.
Reading of the Week: Traditional Approaches to Displacement Are Not Working
Baker Institute
In the midst of the 12-week campaign by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen to disrupt the critical shipping corridor of the Red Sea, a new worry is creeping in: that the Houthis may target the bevy of subsea cables that carry nearly all the data and financial communications between Europe and Asia
Reading of the Week: The Houthis Next Target May Be Underwater
Foreign Policy Magazine
Most Israelis would support a deal if they were sure it would bring them security, but their current skepticism is based on real and urgent concerns about demilitarization given their past experience with Gaza and Lebanon.
Without Enforcement, Talk of Two States Is Hollow
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
The conflict in Sudan has a substantial impact on the country’s food system and hinders people’s ability to cope with food shortages. As the country shows the worst hunger level ever recorded during the harvest season, which is usually a period when food is more available, the severity and scale of hunger in the coming lean season, will be catastrophic. This policy brief argues that rather than the inevitable consequence of war, this food crisis is the result of the generals’ deliberate destruction of Sudan’s food system and the obstruction of people’s coping mechanisms.
From Catastrophe to Famine: Immediate action needed in Sudan to contain mass starvation
Clingendael
On November 21, 2023, the International Peace Institute (IPI), the Stimson Center, and Security Council Report organized a workshop to discuss the mandate and political strategy of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO). This discussion was part of a series of workshops that examine how the activities included in peace operations’ mandates can be better prioritized, sequenced, and grounded in a political strategy.
Prioritizing and Sequencing Security Council Mandates in 2023: The Case of MONUSCO
International Peace Institute
On January 12, the US launched, in collaboration with the UK and with the support of Canada, Australia, Netherlands and Bahrain, its first-ever raids against Houthis’ military sites in Yemen since October 7. This occurred three months after the Houthis initiated unrestrained attacks on Israel and commercial navigation in the Red Sea.
The Houthis, Yemen, the Middle East: Four things the US shouldnt underestimate about the Red Sea Crisis
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
Women’s experiences with certain post-conflict processes in the context of the Boko Haram crisis go beyond marginalization. Women are completely invisible. Though the traditional understandings of what it means to be a female and conventional expectations of women in the Lake Chad Basin (LCB) have significantly evolved since Boko Haram, responses to the crises do not capture this evolution.
Reading of the Week: The experiences of women combatants in post-Boko Haram peace processes. A Discord Between Impact and Redress
Wilson Center
On 20 December, 44 million eligible Congolese voters will elect their new president alongside parliamentary, regional assembly, and local council positions in a single-round poll. The incumbent President Felix Tshisekedi and 21 opposition candidates have entered the presidential race, marking the first election after a democratic transition of power since independence
Disorder and Distrust Ahead of the 2023 Elections in the Democratic Republic of Congo
ACLED
What has been the human toll of the dizzying sequence of global macroeconomic shocks since 2020 for the Middle East and North Africa in terms of lost jobs and deteriorating livelihoods? A recent World Bank report highlights the additional 5.1 million people who have become unemployed, and explores the potential for them to be permanently scarred by the experience.
Balancing act: jobs and wages in MENA when crises hit
Economic Research Forum
Collective efforts and coordinated action to find solutions to the 70+ million internally displaced globally is urgent. PROGRESS analyses data, amplifies voices and experiences of IDPs, returnees and host communities, and asks new questions to find solutions to prolonged internal displacement.
Progress 2023 Periodic Global Report on the State of Solutions to Internal Displacement
Relief Web
In recent years, much attention has focused on the impact of global shocks and crises on African countries. This has included an analysis of the COVID-19 shock (Raga and te Velde, 2020, 2022). Other work examines the impact of food price shocks on food security in African countries (Wiggins, 2022). Our understanding of the impact of the Russia–Ukraine war (RUW) and how it affects Africa’s economic recovery and threatens long-term productivity and social development is currently evolving.
Building resilience in African countries
ODI Emerging Analysis
Initial reactions to Hamas’s October 7 bloody attack on Israelis and Israel’s declaration of war focused on the short term: how strongly would Israel react and what would its war aims be? It was precisely such short-term thinking—on the part of Israeli, Palestinian, American, and other leaders who sought to postpone rather than address issues—that contributed to the current crisis. Israel has finally spelled out war aims, but they are very ambitious: to oust Hamas from governance and to destroy its military capability. That new, yet limited, clarity has pushed public discussions and private, official meetings to begin arrangements for the day after.
There Might Be No Day After in Gaza
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
An estimated 82 percent of the record 149 million Africans facing acute food insecurity are in conflict-affected countries underscoring that conflict continues to be the primary driver of Africa’s food crisis. An estimated 149 million Africans are facing acute food insecurity—an increase of 12 million people from a year ago. This equates to a risk category of 3 or higher (Crisis, Emergency, and Catastrophe) on the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) scale of 1 to 5.
Conflict Remains the Dominant Driver of Africas Food Crisis
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Recognizing the urgency of addressing humanitarian needs for all people affected and displaced by Storm Daniel including immediate needs of all vulnerable migrants, IOM is implementing all its operations ensuring respect for human rights and dignity on-the-ground. The Organization is supporting local authorities and is working closely with its partners, complementing and upscaling the relief and response efforts to alleviate the suffering of the affected population.
IOM Flash Appeal: Libya-Storm Daniel
International Organization for Migration
Over 180 kidnappings were recorded in the war-torn countries of Mali and Burkina Faso in the first half of 2023, an average of one a day. This aligns with the trend in recent years, which has seen the kidnapping industry expand since 2019, with about 400 victims in each of the two countries every year. Most victims are Sahelian, as communities are caught in the crossfire between conflicting parties.
Reading of the Week: Kidnappings in the Sahel - a favoured weapon of war
Institute For Security Studies
Nguen Monytuil Wejang is one of the longest serving governors in South Sudan. In Unity state, he has maintained his rule by fragmenting the opposition, violently displacing the population, and assembling a diverse political coalition. However, with elections postulated for 2024, and electioneering in full swing, cracks are appearing in Monytuil's control of Unity, with the internally displaced persons (IDPs) camps of Rubkona county transformed into the frontline of a political competition for the state.
The Body Count: Controlling Populations in Unity State
Small Arms Survey
In the vast semi-arid expanse of West Africas Sahel, a series of military coups have dealt a heavy blow to the regions political stability and democratic transformation, and created a new era of uncertainty and insecurity.
Why West Africa and the Sahel are witnessing a resurgence in coups and political instability
Arab News
Of all the challenges to Saudi Vision 20301 Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmans (MBS) high-stakes plan for life after oil arguably none is greater than Irans threat to Saudi national security. To succeed, MBS must protect the kingdom, which will require not only fortifying its defenses against further Iranian and Houthi attacks but also establishing a level of deterrence against Tehran.
Saudi Arabias Deterrence Options Against Iran
Middle East Institute
In the vast semi-arid expanse of West Africas Sahel, a series of military coups have dealt a heavy blow to the region’s political stability and democratic transformation, and created a new era of uncertainty and insecurity.
Why West Africa and the Sahel are witnessing a resurgence in coups and political instability
Arab News
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022, deepened the economic crises that many countries in the Arab world were already facing, while helping others, especially in the Gulf region. Today, hydrocarbon-importing countries are having to deal with unprecedented increases in food and energy prices, as well as soaring levels of unemployment, debt, and inflation.
Reform or Recklessness? Which Path for the Arab Region?
Carnegie Middle East Center
A struggle is underway for control of Area C (60 percent of the West Bank). The Palestinians are eager to control the area, which they see as essential to a contiguous and viable Palestinian state. In contrast, the Israeli government is working to push the Palestinians out of the area and prepare to annex it. Normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is an opportunity for a change of approach in the struggle to regulate the control over Area C and block an emerging, dangerous one-state reality.
The Struggle over Area C: Change Direction toward a Space for Understanding with the Palestinian Authority
The Institute for National Security Studies
Lebanon needs a new aid strategy. It will need generous support to recover when reforms are initiated. But it also needs all the help it can get now to alleviate its current misery. What is required is a donor strategy that walks on two legs: a first leg that offers a big reconstruction push conditioned on economic and institutional reforms and, in parallel, a second leg that provides urgent support to the Lebanese population.
Lebanon needs a renewed donor support strategy
Middle East Institute
As part of MONUSCO’s mandate renewal in December 2022, the UN Security Council called for the secretary-general to outline pathways for the mission’s transition and withdrawal from the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC), along with possible options for the future reconfiguration of the UN’s presence in the country, by July 2023. This past year, the rise of the M23 and other non-state armed groups in eastern DRC has led to the deployment of regional and bilateral forces, while rising anti-MONUSCO sentiment has further restricted the UN’s operating space. Following widespread and lethal civilian demonstrations against the mission’s perceived ineffectiveness throughout 2022, the government of the DRC notified the UN Security Council of its intention to reassess the agreed timetable for the mission’s departure, citing the deep displeasure of the Congolese people.
Reading of the Week: Options for Reconfiguring the UN Presence in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
International Peace Institute
The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly altered employment and income distribution, impacting women and men differently. This study investigates the negative effects of COVID-19 on the labour market, focusing on the gender gap in five countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. The study indicates whether women are more susceptible to losing their jobs, either temporarily or permanently, switching their primary occupation, and experiencing decreased working hours and income compared to men during the COVID-19 outbreak.
New evidence of gender inequality during COVID-19 outbreak in the Middle East and North Africa
Science Direct
Renewed negotiations to reach a settlement on the disputed territory of Western Sahara could be within grasp after painstaking diplomatic spadework. But progress toward resolving the controversy over the area will prove hard to achieve without stronger U.S. backing. Widening differences between Morocco and the pro-independence Polisario Front, as well as mounting tensions between Morocco and the Front’s main sponsor, Algeria, have narrowed UN Envoy Staffan de Mistura’s room for manoeuvre.
Paving the Way to Talks on Western Sahara
International Crisis Group
The JOINT Effectiveness Checklist provides a comparatively simple framework for policy-makers and researchers to analyse the effectiveness of the EU’s response to conflicts and crises. It adds value to existing evaluation tools by a) assessing effectiveness relative to the level of difficulty of the policy environment, and b) adapting and further developing existing standard policy assessment criteria/indicators specifically to the requirements of the multi-actor/multi-layered/multi-sector nature of the EU foreign and security policy.
JOINT Effectiveness Checklist for EU Foreign and Security Policy in Conflict and Crisis Situations
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The ongoing conflict in Sudan, involving the country's armed forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has significantly raised concerns for Egypt, its northern neighbour. Not only does Egypt face the impact of a humanitarian crisis spilling over into its borders, but it also navigates a challenging geopolitical landscape as Sudan undergoes a period of instability.
The relationship between Egypt and Sudan has deep historical, cultural, and strategic ties. As Sudan faces internal conflicts, Egypt's role in the country's war becomes increasingly significant.
Harnessing Regional Diplomacy: Egypts Strategic Role in Sudans Conflict Resolution
Brussels International Center
The European Union (EU) and its Member States welcome the significant progress achieved in Somalia since President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud assumed office in May 2022. The EU commends the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) for its efforts to build a stable and peaceful Somalia to ensure delivery on the security transition in line with the UN Security Council mandates UNSCR 2628 and UNSCR 2670, as well as for its ambitious reform agenda, including commitment to comprehensive reconciliation and macro-economic reforms.
Council Conclusions on Somalia
Council of the European Union
This paper focuses on countries having extended nuclear deterrence arrangements with a nuclear-armed patron from whom they have received a nuclear security guarantee. Extended nuclear deterrence is often called a ‘nuclear umbrella’ a metaphor that hardly captures the risks inherent in nuclear deterrence practices and the non-nuclear weapon states belonging to an alliance with such arrangements are commonly referred to as ‘umbrella’ states.
The Role of Umbrella States in the Global Nuclear Order
Stockholm International Peace Research Institute
Un des droits humains fondamentaux, l’accès universel à l’eau et à l’assainissement est le sixième Objectif de Développement Durable des Nations Unies (2023) et constitue un défi pour la plupart des pays africains. Touché par une crise sécuritaire depuis 2012, le Mali a vu son réseau hydraulique affaibli par la dégradation de ses infrastructures. Le service d’alimentation en eau a subi de fortes pressions à cause des déplacements internes liés à l’insécurité.
Au Mali, la fourniture de services deau et dassainissement reste un défi
AFRO Barometer
By revamping its social protection system, Lebanon could address its current economic crisis and restore public trust in the government. Lebanon is in need of a revamped social protection system for all its citizens at the different stages of their lives. Such a universal system must ensure access to social security, social assistance and care, and labor market programs. It should also underpin a strengthened social contract to replace the weak one in place prior to 2019, in which the state’s role was limited.
How Better Social Protection Can Strengthen Lebanons Social Contract
Carnegie Middle East Center
Yevgeny Prigozhin’s Russian mercenaries, known as the Wagner Group, while comprising a relatively small part of the Russian forces in general, played an important role in Russia’s war against Ukraine, not only thanks to their military skills, but also due to Prigozhin’s political and media capabilities. Indeed, they have influenced the battlefield and the situation within Russia. On June 23, 2023, increasing friction between Prigozhin, who emerged during the war as an independent anti-establishment political
player (he has no formal position in the establishment), and the Russian military establishment, led to an armed uprising against the militarysecurity leadership, unprecedented in modern Russian history.
Reading of the Week: Yevgeny Prigozhin and the Wagner Group. The Roots of the Phenomenon and its Effects on Russia following the June 23, 2023 Mutiny
The Institute for National Security Studies
The characterization of Israeli control over Palestinians as an apartheid system represents a significant shift in the way the regime is portrayed and understood. While the application of the term to Israel has been around since the 1960s, traction has intensified over the past two decades, partly due to the emergence of an anti-apartheid movement and increasing recognition that Israel’s grip on Palestinian territory is permanent. Legal experts, scholars, human rights professionals, and multilateral institutions have all contributed to the growing body of research and analysis supporting the charge.
Apartheid and the Palestine Liberation Movement: Opportunities and Challenges
Middle East Council on Global Affairs
Communal conflicts between farmers and herders in Borgou have multiple driving forces. This report explores one of these: changing land management systems. It is argued that recent changes in land management are in any event likely to become a stronger driver of tensions in Borgou in the near future.
Twilight Institutions: Land conflict and hybrid authorities in Benins Borgou department
Clingendael
Communal conflicts between farmers and herders in Borgou have multiple driving forces. This report explores one of these: changing land management systems. It is argued that recent changes in land management are in any event likely to become a stronger driver of tensions in Borgou in the near future.
Twilight Institutions: Land conflict and hybrid authorities in Benins Borgou department
Clingendael
Asylum-related migration comprises those migrants who left their countries of origin with the intention to seek international protection in another country or ended up doing so. People with legitimate needs for international protection, according to the 1951 Refugee Convention and its 1967 Protocol, and the Qualification Directive, as well as people fleeing their countries for better economic/ employment opportunities are included, as long as they (intend to) seek asylum.
An innovative framework for analysing asylum-related migration
European Union Agency for Asylum
Since the 15th of April 2023, a conflict between Sudan’s two largest armed actors, the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), has ravaged the country. Forty-five million civilians stand in the crossfire, their lives threatened by the war. Hundreds of thousands of people are fleeing the country. Sudan’s international partners have both a moral duty and a practical interest in promoting peace in the country. As Sudan’s generals resist international calls for a ceasefire, there is one potential way to stop the fighting: deny the SAF and the RSF the financial resources they need to finance their war efforts.
Reading of the Week: To Stop the War in Sudan, Bankrupt the Warlords
Clingendael
Extremist activities and violence in the centres of conflict in the Sahel (i.e. Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger) are moving south towards the four countries of interest of this paper (Côte d’Ivoire, Ghana, Senegal and Togo). At the time of writing, all except Ghana have experienced direct jihadist attacks, and all have reported extremist encroachment and recent increases in refugees, especially from Burkina Faso.
Reading of the Week: The Sahel Conflict: economic and security spillovers on West Africa
Overseas Development Institute
In a dramatic development, the ICC issued an arrest warrant for Russia’s President, who is “allegedly responsible” for war crimes in the conflict with Ukraine. While there is little chance of seeing Putin in court, this precedent has much significance – including potentially for Israel
Putin and The Hague: The Precedent, and the Significance for Israel
The Institute for National Security Studies
The present report is the thirty-seventh semi-annual report of the SecretaryGeneral on the implementation of Security Council resolution 1559 (2004). It provides a review and assessment of the implementation of the resolution since the issuance of the previous report on the subject (S/2022/749), on 11 October 2022, and covers developments until 24 March 2023.
Implementation of Security Council resolution 1559 (2004)
UN Security Council
Three months ago, the most far-right government in the history of Israel was sworn in by the Knesset under the leadership of Benjamin Netanyahu. Notably, Itamar Ben-Gvir, the Kahanist leader of Jewish Power and former convict for racist incitement, has been appointed the head of the newly created Ministry of National Security. Additionally, Bezalel Smotrich, leader of the settler-based Religious Zionism party, has been given major control over the administration of the occupied West Bank as the head of the Finance Ministry.
Shifting Paradigms for Israel-Palestine: Why the EU Must Answer the Wake-Up Call Now
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The war in Yemen has reached an inflection point. Back-channel talks between two of the main belligerents – the Huthi rebels and Saudi Arabia, the chief external patron of the internationally recognised government – are proceeding amid a shaky informal truce. The front lines have stayed mostly quiet since April 2022, when the parties concluded a formal truce, despite that agreement’s expiry six months later. The pause in hostilities has helped the Huthi-Saudi parley along, and a deal appears to be on the horizon.
Yemens Troubled Presidential Leadership Council
International Crisis Group
The war in Yemen has reached an inflection point. Back-channel talks between two of the main belligerents – the Huthi rebels and Saudi Arabia, the chief external patron of the internationally recognised government – are proceeding amid a shaky informal truce. The front lines have stayed mostly quiet since April 2022, when the parties concluded a formal truce, despite that agreement’s expiry six months later. The pause in hostilities has helped the Huthi-Saudi parley along, and a deal appears to be on the horizon.
Yemens Troubled Presidential Leadership Council
International Crisis Group
Lebanon is experiencing a constantly evolving multi-layered crisis which is exacerbating long-term structural vulnerabilities, reversing previously made development gains, and leading to acute and increasingly visible humanitarian needs among the most vulnerable populations.
Lebanon Emergency Response Plan 2022 - 2023
Relief Web
From their earliest days, Hezbollah and Hamas have seen immense value in closely monitoring Israel’s media. However, their reliance on open-source information has proven a double-edged sword, as both groups have been misled into making poor strategic decisions. Either Hezbollah or Hamas is likely to identify the current crisis in Israel over the new government’s proposed reform of Israel’s judiciary as an opportunity to act against it.
Will Hamas and Hezbollah Try Again to Tear the Israeli Spiderweb?
Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
Since 1948, more than 1,000 UN personnel have been killed in malicious acts while serving in UN peacekeeping operations. Since 2013, the vast majority of fatalities have taken place in the Central African Republic (CAR), Mali, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). To address this trend, the UN Secretariat and member states have increasingly focused on strengthening the policy framework on accountability to peacekeepers.
Accountability for Crimes against Peacekeepers
International Peace Institute
The United States has reportedly asked Israel to supply Ukraine with its long-retired Hawk missile defense system, despite the fact that the components of these systems are in serious disrepair and no longer operational. This request places Jerusalem in a difficult diplomatic position. While it wishes to stand with the Western bloc, it must also carefully manage its relationship with Moscow, which has the power to disrupt Israel’s efforts to control hostile Iranian movements in Syria as well as threaten Israel’s open channel to Russia’s remaining Jewish population.
Israeli Hawk Missiles and the War in Ukraine
The Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
The 2021 judgment of the EU General Court holds that ‘Western Sahara’ is separate from Morocco, imposing on Morocco a responsibility to secure Polisario’s consent to its exploitation of natural resources in ‘Western Sahara’ and its adjacent waters, allegedly based on the UN Friendly Relations Declaration, which states that a non-self-governing territory has “a status separate and distinct from the territory of the State administering it.” The phrase is originated in the General Assembly resolution 1541 (XV) in 1960, referring to “a territory which is geographically separate and is distinct ethnically and/or culturally” from the administering State.
The 2021 EU General Court Decision on Polisario v Council: Some Legal Considerations on the Status of the Moroccan Sahara
Policy Center Of The New South
Successive protests in 2009, 2019 and 2022 have poignantly laid bare the much reduced social and political legitimacy of Iran’s ruling elites. Reform-from-within is no longer viewed as credible. Even former pro-reform leaders like Mousavi have abandoned hope and call for regime change. While further protests are inevitable, it is nevertheless unlikely that they will produce a revolution that overthrows the regime in the short-term, as long as their national organisation and leadership remain weak, Iran’s ruling elites cohesive, security forces loyal, and the administration continues to function.
Protests in Iran in comparative perspective
Clingendael
Yemen is becoming an ever more fragmented country – to such an extent that it may soon be impossible ever to piece it back together again. A combination of internal dynamics exacerbated by the actions of neighbouring states has brought Yemen to this pass. For the international community, and the European Union and European states, addressing this will be difficult – but they can do so by providing long-term help, rather than lurching between short-term fixes.
Fragmentation Nation: How Europeans Can Help End The Conflict In Yemen
European Council on Foreign Relations
More than a year after cancelled elections and a violent upheaval, Palestinians face the prospect of a destabilizing leadership transition. President Mahmoud Abbas, 87, continues to exert a strong hold on power, but his reign is unavoidably nearing its end. A smooth succession will be challenging, as Abbas holds three leadership posts.
Managing Palestines Looming Leadership Transition
Crisis Group
Cattle rustling in Nigeria has evolved from a sustainable community practice into a significant illicit economy, delivering material profits to conflict actors and multiplying harms. Since 2011, the country has experienced a surge in the number of rustling incidents, resulting in thousands of deaths, loss of livelihoods, widespread destruction and displacement of people. This has had a debilitating impact on the country’s stability, as explored in an earlier report by the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime (GI-TOC).
Driving Destruction, Cattle rustling and instability in Nigeria
Global Initiative
Blue Nile region has been characterized by conflicts for several years but the situation worsened in 2022. Since 19th October, 2022 approximately 191 people were killed including Women and children and injuring 220 others from Gomez, Hausa and Berta tribes living in the towns of Arousers Dam in Wad Almahi locality in Blue Nile region. Additionally, 95,000 Hausa members were displaced to other States in Sudan and others crossed the boarders to Ethiopia as refugees. Approximately 30 Sudanese Army Forces (SAF) soldiers were tried and convicted by the military judiciary parish (military court) and sentenced to 15 to 20 years imprisonment depending on the charges as provided for under the SAF law, 1986. 10 MI officer were resultantly transferred from Blue Nile to other Sudanese states.
Reading of the Week: Analysis of Conflicts in Blue Nile Region
Africa Centre For Justice and Peace Studies
State-centric approaches to building resilience to organised crime must be complemented with community-based, context-specific responses that challenge organised crime and violence at a local level. Local communities are key elements of the necessary response to the destabilising impacts of organised crime in conflict as well as post-conflict settings. There remains a gap in stakeholder understanding of the elements of community resilience to organised crime, particularly in unstable settings. This report starts to address this gap, by analysing key drivers of community resilience – identified as social capital, community capacity, the role of women, economic capital and infrastructure – in four communities in Nigeria, Guinea-Bissau and Burkina Faso.
Building resilience to organised crime
ECOWAS
The UN Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the United Nations Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) in December 2022. The upcoming negotiations among council members will unfold against the backdrop of renewed fighting between the Armed Forces of the DRC (FARDC) and the M23 rebel group. And while several regional diplomatic initiatives are underway, the security and humanitarian conditions continue to worsen in the eastern provinces of the DRC, with persistent threats to human rights and the protection of civilians.
Reading of the Week: Prioritizing and Sequencing Security Council Mandates in 2022: The Case of MONUSCO
International Peace Institute
The present review is submitted pursuant to Security Council resolution 2642 (2022), in which the Council requested that the Secretary-General provide a special report on the humanitarian needs in the Syrian Arab Republic by no later than 10 December 2022. Also in the resolution, the Council called upon humanitarian agencies to step up further initiatives to broaden the humanitarian activities in the Syrian Arab Republic, including water, sanitation, health, education, electricity where essential to restore access to basic services, and shelter early recovery projects.
Report of the Secretary-General: Humanitarian needs in the Syrian Arab Republic
UN Security Council
In late September 2022, Burkina Faso experienced its second coup in eight months. In the name of national security, Captain Ibrahim Traoré took control of the country on 30 September, deposing Paul-Henri Damiba, who had come to power through his own coup in January. Insecurity and the inability of the political class to deal with the jihadist threat are among the determining factors that led to two coups in such a short time. The coups unfolded in a context marked by competition between the European Union (EU) – initially led by France, the traditional European hegemon in the region – and Russia for influence in the Sahel.
The EU vis-à-vis Turmoil in Burkina Faso: Towards Europeanisation?
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The Syrian state’s persecution of the population has been well documented throughout the country's more than 11-year conflict through a voluminous stream of victims’ testimonies. Less well understood is the logic behind the violence, who the regime targets and why they inflict such harm. Why do violence and persecution continue against some groups, even after a reduction in immediate conflict hostilities or when they now live as refugees outside of the country?
Understanding the logic behind the Syrian regimes violence
Middle East Institute
The protests that have jolted Iran’s clerical leadership over the past weeks, as well as news of Iran’s drone and missile sales to Russia, raise questions that EU policymakers and foreign policy analysts have been struggling with for years: how stable is the Islamic Republic? How to support protesters? And how to reconcile condemnation of the crackdown on demonstrators and the need to react to Iran’s uncovered support for Russia’s war effort in Ukraine?
Protests and Drones Push EU-Iran Relations to the Brink
Istituto Affari Internazionali
A review of the maritime border agreement between Israel and Lebanon reveals an agreement that both reflects a compromise between the two parties and creates a win-win situation. Its achievement is a milestone in the history of the relations between the two states and serves their respective economic, security, and strategic interests.
The Agreement with Lebanon: The Benefits Outweigh the Drawbacks
The Institute for National Security Studies
International law provides the framework that determines rights and responsibilities in fishing, but there are still some gaps that are exploitable by malicious actors that have instrumentalized so-called Distant-Water Fishing.
Exclusive Economic Zone adjacent distant-water fishing as a global security challenge: An international law perspective
Hybrid Centre of Excellence
Saudi Arabia’s security-oriented approach to Yemen has foundered. The Saudi-led coalition has failed to defeat the Houthis militarily or to restore the government the group toppled. Moreover, Saudi militarization of the border with Yemen has damaged the Yemeni economy with negative consequences for Saudi Arabia. Crucially, Saudi Arabia’s security is contingent on Yemen’s stability and economic prosperity.
The Pitfalls of Saudi Arabias Security-Centric Strategy in Yemen
Carnegie Middle East Center
Although there is international consensus on the desired outcome of the Middle East Peace Process (MEPP) - namely Israeli-Palestinian talks resulting in a two-state solution - there is no peace, and for years there has been no process either. In the meantime, Israelis still live with the threat of terrorism and rocket attacks, while Palestinians continue living without full rights under what were supposed to be interim arrangements agreed on in the 1990s.
The outlook for the Middle East Peace Process: Stuck in a one-state reality, and you cant get out of it
Finnish Institute of International Affairs
Saudi Arabia’s security-oriented approach to Yemen has foundered. The Saudi-led coalition has failed to defeat the Houthis militarily or to restore the government the group toppled. Moreover, Saudi militarization of the border with Yemen has damaged the Yemeni economy—with negative consequences for Saudi Arabia. Crucially, Saudi Arabia’s security is contingent on Yemen’s stability and economic prosperity. As such, Riyadh should contribute to reviving Yemen’s moribund economy, both in the borderlands and in the inland agricultural sector.
The Pitfalls of Saudi Arabias Security-Centric Strategy in Yemen
Carnegie Middle East Center
This Review identifies and discusses certain unresolved aspects of the Revitalised Peace Agreement which are likely to derail the constitutional design process. The aim is to show their implications and potential impacts on constitution-making process. The Review urges parties to the Agreement, policy analysts, and researchers to be seized with these key aspects prior to the commencement of constitution-making.
The unresolved aspects of the Revitalised Peace Agreement and their implications on constitution-making in South Sudan
The Sudd Institute
After a month of negotiations, the tenth review conference (RevCon) of the parties to the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of nuclear weapons (NPT)concluded on August 26 without a consensus final document, raising concerns about weakening efforts to promote nuclear nonproliferation, disarmament, and the peaceful use of nuclear energy. It also marked the first time two consecutive RevCons have failed to produce such a document.
The Future of Nuclear Nonproliferation and Disarmament Is in Danger
Council on Foreign Relations
Sept. 21, 2022, marked the eighth anniversary of the Houthis’ takeover of Sana’a, Yemen’s capital, under the pretext of fighting corruption and poverty. But what initially was presented as a struggle against injustice ended up being nothing more than a power grab masquerading as a rebellion. Since 2014, most of northern Yemen has become isolated after the Houthis alienated their opponents and executed their one-time ally, former President Ali Abdullah Saleh, shattering trust in the possibility of future alliances with their movement.
The Houthis War and Yemens Future
Middle East Institute
Since April 2021, parties to the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), or Iran nuclear deal, have sought to revive the agreement abandoned by U.S. President Donald Trump. Negotiations between Iran and its interlocutors – the U.S., France, the UK, Russia, China and Germany, coordinated by the EU – made progress over eight rounds in Vienna. By March 2022, they had yielded a close to final text.
Is Restoring the Iran Nuclear Deal Still Possible?
International Crisis Group
Recent months have seen a steep rise in the use of live fire in the Palestinian cities in the West Bank against IDF forces, as well as in the number of shooting incidents and other attacks. Behind the shootings are primarily young Palestinians, including Fatah operatives, and this phenomenon reflects the chaos within the Palestinian Authority. The Israeli security response, which focuses on counter-terrorism and widespread arrests of suspects, generates a self-sustaining cycle of escalation and heightens the motivation among young Palestinians to enlist in the fight against the Israeli security forces.
Chaos in the Palestinian Authority: From Counter-Terrorism to Reconstruction
The Institute for National Security Studies
The present report is submitted pursuant to Security Council resolution 2636 (2022), by which the Council decided to extend the mandate of the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in the Sudan (UNITAMS) until 3 June 2023 and requested the Secretary-General to report every 90 days on its implementation. The report covers developments in the Sudan from 6 May to 20 August 2022 and contains an update on the implementation of the Mission’s mandate, with gender
considerations integrated throughout as a cross-cutting issue.
Situation in the Sudan and the activities of the United Nations Integrated Transition Assistance Mission in the Sudan
United Nations
The present report is submitted pursuant to General Assembly resolution 76/11. In that resolution, which deals with the Syrian Golan, the Assembly demanded once more that Israel withdraw from all of the occupied Syrian Golan to the line of 4 June 1967 in implementation of the relevant Security Council resolution.
Report of the Secretary-General: The Situation in Middle East
United Nations
Over the past decade, significant progress has been made in Somalia’s post-conflict trajectory, including the formation of the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) in 2012 following the endorsement of the Provisional Federal Constitution. Federal Member States (FMSs) were formed from 2013 onwards and a range of significant institutional reforms have followed.
Revitalizing the negotiation of contentious political issues in Somalia
Rift Valley Institute
La relation entre l’Organisation de l’union africaine (Oua), aujourd’hui Union africaine (UA), et les Communautés économiques régionales (Cer) a considérablement évolué à travers le temps. Devant le manque d’effectivité de l’Architecture de paix et de sécurité sur le continent, les différents pays ont tenté de définir leurs propres cadres d’action face aux menaces. Lors de la mise en place de l’Oua en 1963, les différents ensembles régionaux sont d’ores et déjà constitués. En 1976, les premières tentatives de coopération entre les organisations régionales et l’organisation continentale sont lancées à travers l’instauration d’un découpage régional.
Le rôle de la Cedeao dans la gestion des crises politiques et sécuritaires internes de ses États membres
Policy Brief
The seven member states of the East African Community (EAC) have agreed to deploy a regional force to the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). On 15 August, a Burundian contingent was the first to enter the DRC under EAC auspices. There is no firm timetable for the force’s full deployment. The DRC joined the EAC, a regional economic bloc, in late March. Congolese President Félix Tshisekedi used the occasion of the DRC’s accession to ask his counterparts for help in tackling the dozens of armed groups that have fought each other and the authorities in the eastern DRC for years.
East Africas DR Congo Force: The Case for Caution
International Crisis Group
On July 23, 2022, the Iran-backed Houthi militia attacked the residential neighborhood of Zaid al-Moshki in Taiz, one of Yemen’s most populous cities, killing one child and injuring 11 others, most of whom were under the age of 10. The attack, which drew U.N. condemnation, was particularly troubling given the U.N.-brokered truce that went into effect on April 2.
Yemens Truce Has Failed in Taiz
Middle East Institute
The security and humanitarian crisis in the Sahel is staggering into its 10th year. A conflict that began with rebels and allied jihadist groups sweeping out of the desert into northern Mali in 2012 has transformed into a dizzyingly complex cross-border catastrophe hollowing out the heart of West Africa.
Finding a Path through Quagmire
Central for Strategic and International Studies
As the frequency of natural disasters and civil conflicts spikes globally, rapid response systems, the likes of early warning systems facilitating rapid intervention, assume prominence (Smith & Frankenberger, 2018). While such interventions alleviate crises, they seldom address the underlying vulnerability. Occasionally, the short-term interventions generate serial dependence of individuals and households on aid and handouts (Alinovi et al., 2008; Bene et al., 2016). Some of these concerns motivate the recent calls for the resilience approach to development, whereby building resilience capacity becomes a primary concern of development planning and emergency interventions (Tendall et al., 2015).
The Boko Haram Conflict and Food Insecurity: Does Resilience Capacity Matter?
Center For The Studies of African Economies (CSAE)
The launch of UAVs by Hezbollah toward the Karish gas field was intended to convey a twofold message – to Israel and to the Lebanese – against the backdrop of Israel’s determination to continue production from this field and the renewed diplomatic effort initiated by Lebanon to resolve the maritime border dispute between the countries.
Resolving the Gas Dispute with Lebanon: First Exhaust Diplomatic Efforts
The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS)
The precipitous escalation of the security crisis in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo(DRC) risks reigniting interstate conflict in the Great Lakes region. The myriad actors and interests involved, however, often defy easy analysis. To help clarify what is driving the worsening security situation, the Africa Center for Strategic Studies compiled this explainer drawing on the insights of multiple experts.
Rwanda and the DRC at Risk of War as New M23 Rebellion Emerges: An Explainer
Africa Center for Strategic Studies
Fighting in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo is intensifying, with Ugandan and Burundian soldiers in pursuit of rebels and Congolese insurgents on the rebound. With help from its allies, Kinshasa should step up diplomacy lest the country become a regional battleground once more. President Félix Tshisekedi has allowed Uganda to deploy troops to fight rebels based in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and is tacitly permitting Burundi do to the same. Rwanda appears to be considering its own incursion in the area. Meanwhile, a Congolese armed group, the M23, is regrouping.
Easing the Turmoil in the Eastern DR Congo and Great Lakes
International Crisis Group (ICG)
Recognizing that the current situation in Abyei and along the border between Sudan and South Sudan continues to constitute a threat to international peace and security, decides to extend until 15 November 2022 the mandate of UNISFA.
Resolution 2630 (2022)
United Nations Security Council
Rather than breaking the violent cycle of elite political bargaining in South Sudan, the 2018 Revitalized Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in South Sudan (the peace agreement) has become part of it. Almost every component of the peace agreement is now hostage to the political calculations of the country's military and security elites, who use a combination of violence, misappropriated public resources and patronage to pursue their own narrow interests. As a result, much of the peace agreement remains gridlocked by political disputes between its principal signatories.
Reading of the Week: Final report of the Panel of Experts on South Sudan Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2577 (2021)
United Nations Security Council