As military conflicts and civil wars in the Middle East intensify—and as the actors involved grow to include a complex array of states, armed groups, and militias—diplomatic efforts to end these hostilities have repeatedly faltered. The region is now plagued by immense human suffering and catastrophic material and moral losses, pushing it to the edge of collapse.
The Middle Easts New War of Attrition
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Despite the operational and intelligence successes of Israel in Lebanon in September 2024, a troubling question hangs over the country: Who bears responsibility for the failure to anticipate the Oct. 7 Hamas assault that led also to the war in Lebanon and on other fronts? Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his intelligence chiefs appear locked in a blame game, with each side offering conflicting accounts of whether warnings were issued and, if so, why they were not acted upon
Reading of the Week: Israels Oct. 7 early warning failure: Who is to blame?
Texas National Security Review
The United States, Egypt, and Qatar are making a ‘last gasp’ diplomatic push to secure a ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas. Mediators say that the latest truce offer, which they hope to finalize in Cairo this week, ‘bridges’ several contentious details that had thwarted previous talks. At the time of writing, the prospects for the negotiations look bleak. The terms of the ceasefire have yet to be fully disclosed, but they appear to have veered from earlier frameworks offered in May and endorsed by UN Security Council Resolution 2735.
The real schism in the Israel-Hamas ceasefire talks is about who decides Gazas future
Chatham House
For weeks, concerns over the risk of miscalculation or even intentional escalation between Israel and Hezbollah have dominated attention. Ramped up cross-border attacks between the two sides on Sunday, August 25 have left each side simultaneously claiming success “for now,” suggesting a much-feared larger conflagration may have been averted in the near term.
However, implications for longer-term risk and mutual deterrence, Iran’s calculations for escalation, and linkage to the still-elusive Gaza cease-fire remain uncertain.
Israel-Hezbollah Contained Escalation Halts Concern Over Broader Mideast War
United States Institute Of Peace
A series of violent events over the past week have taken the Middle East closer to the brink of all-out war. The latest of these was the killing, on 31 July, of Ismail Haniyeh, the leader of Hamas’s political wing and a high-level guest of the Iranian government, in the Iranian capital Tehran on the day of the new Iranian president’s inauguration
Reading of the Week: Staying the Guns of August: Avoiding All-out Regional War in the Middle East
International Crisis Group
The war of attrition between Israel and Hezbollah has reached new levels of tension. As attacks penetrate deeper into one another’s territory and the rhetoric intensifies, both sides feel increasingly compelled to respond with greater force, resorting to dangerous exchanges of fire and psychological warfare tactics. Hezbollah demonstrates its ability to fly drones over Haifa undisturbed
Reading of the Week: Israel and Hezbollah Are Playing With Fire
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
On March 25, the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) passed Resolution 2728, calling for an “immediate” cease-fire in Gaza. The motion’s passage came after weeks of back and forth and posturing among the UNSC’s permanent and rotating members
Reading of the Week: What Does the U.N. Cease-Fire Resolution Mean for the Israel-Gaza War?
United States Institute of Peace
For the first time in four decades, a core U.S. interest in the region on which successive American presidents have based U.S. Middle East policy - freedom of navigation and the free flow of commerce - is increasingly at risk. By enabling the Houthis in Yemen to attack international vessels in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden with armed drones and sophisticated anti-ship missiles, Iran, as it did in the Gulf in the late 1980s, is causing tremendous harm to commercial activity in one of the world’s most crucial waterways.
Reading of the Week: A Strategy for Countering the Houthi Threat at Sea
Middle East Institute
The toll of armed conflict is felt heavily across civilian populations, as infrastructure is destroyed, civilians are killed, and the very social fabric of communities is unraveled. Most combatants across contexts are men, and in most wars, battle-related injuries affect men disproportionately
Unraveling the Multi-Faceted Impact of Armed Conflict on Women in the Gaza Strip
Wilson Center
So when Hassan Nasrallah, the head of the Lebanese Hezbollah and the most powerful non-state actor in the world, says that he doesn’t wish to broaden the war in Gaza to help his Palestinian ally Hamas, the region should breathe a sigh of relief – because his words matter.
The closer Israel gets to destroying Hamas, the more likely war with Hezbollah becomes
Chatham House
Initial reactions to Hamas’s October 7 bloody attack on Israelis and Israel’s declaration of war focused on the short term: how strongly would Israel react and what would its war aims be? It was precisely such short-term thinking—on the part of Israeli, Palestinian, American, and other leaders who sought to postpone rather than address issues—that contributed to the current crisis. Israel has finally spelled out war aims, but they are very ambitious: to oust Hamas from governance and to destroy its military capability. That new, yet limited, clarity has pushed public discussions and private, official meetings to begin arrangements for the day after.
There Might Be No Day After in Gaza
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Since August 2022, the Somali federal government has engaged in a counter-insurgency campaign against al-Shabaab. Somali troops achieved some successes, including dislodging the militants from hundreds of locations previously under al-Shabaab’s control in Hirshabelle and Galmudug states in central Somalia. Clan militias and local power brokers provided active support to the counter-insurgency, sharing operational information with the government and giving legitimacy to government forces.
Somalia Al-Shabaab Strikes Back at Local Administrators
ACLED
Since 2006, “unspoken rules” have prevented tensions between Hizbollah and Israel from blowing up into large-scale conflict. But the mutual deterrence is fragile. In this video of our In Black & White series, Crisis Group’s Senior Analyst for Lebanon, David Wood, explains how a misstep on one side could lead the other to respond forcefully.
Israeli-Hizbollah Mutual Deterrence Must Be Preserved
International Crisis Group
In June, to the surprise of most UN Security Council members, Mali’s government called on the Council to pull UN peacekeepers out of the country “without delay”. Some diplomats briefly considered options for keeping the UN Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) in place, but most greeted the news with a resignation verging on fatalism. Although the precise timing of Bamako’s demand was unexpected, the Malian government had been frank about its loss of trust in the UN.
What Future for UN Peacekeeping in Africa after Mali Shutters Its Mission?
International Crisis Group
The Freedom Theatre (TFT), headquartered in the Jenin Refugee Camp in the northern West Bank that was invaded once again by the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) last week, is nothing if not a crucible for the Palestinian experience. Up against grinding poverty, occupation, religious extremism, and, more recently, aerial bombardment, the theater miraculously survives.
Jenins Freedom Theatre rises from the ashes once again
Middle East Institute
The characterization of Israeli control over Palestinians as an apartheid system represents a significant shift in the way the regime is portrayed and understood. While the application of the term to Israel has been around since the 1960s, traction has intensified over the past two decades, partly due to the emergence of an anti-apartheid movement and increasing recognition that Israel’s grip on Palestinian territory is permanent. Legal experts, scholars, human rights professionals, and multilateral institutions have all contributed to the growing body of research and analysis supporting the charge.
Apartheid and the Palestine Liberation Movement: Opportunities and Challenges
Middle East Council on Global Affairs
Cracks in Israel’s deterrence against Hezbollah are evident following the terrorist attack at Megiddo Junction in mid-March 2023 by a Palestinian who crossed the border from Lebanon, and the rockets fired by Hamas from southern Lebanon into Israel during the month of Ramadan – compounded by the internal crisis in Israel.
Israel May Have to Change its Deterrence Equation with Hezbollah
The Institute for National Securitiy Studies
The Islamic State group (IS) seems to have been reduced to a shadow of its former self. Public attention in the West has waned, and the priorities of the international community shifted to other issues. This warrants taking stock of the group's current status and assessing the dangers it still poses.
The State of the Islamic State
Center for Security Studies
The Islamic State group (IS) seems to have been reduced to a shadow of its former self. Public attention in the West has waned, and the priorities of the international community shifted to other issues. This warrants taking stock of the group's current status and assessing the dangers it still poses.
The State of the Islamic State
Center for Security Studies