China has aligned its cooperation model with Saudi Arabia’s own priorities, most notably since the kingdom unveiled its Vision 2030. Although China announced the Belt and Road Initiative in 2013, the big push in relations happened only after the ascendance of King Salman to the throne in 2015 and Riyadh’s push for Beijing to meet Saudi needs.
How China Aligned Itself with Saudi Arabias Vision 2030
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Qatar is a high-income, resource-rich country, with an economy based around the exploitation of its vast fossil fuel reserves, particularly natural gas. As a result of the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and other fossil fuel-intensive industries that started in the 1990s, Qatar’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew from $18bn to $236bn (in 2024 USD) between the years 2000 and 2022.
The Challenges of Climate Change Mitigation and Economic Diversification in Qatar
Middle East Council on Global Affairs
This report explores Jordan’s progress toward the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in the context of current economic, social, and structural challenges and their projected course until 2030. Since the adoption of the SDGs in 2015, Jordan has faced significant constraints, including its limited natural resources, high debt burden, water scarcity, and external shocks such as the Syrian refugee crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Accelerating the Progress of Jordan Towards the Sustainable Development Goals
Economic Research Forum
Few relationships will determine the future of security, peace and prosperity in the Middle East more than the cooperation between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the State of Israel and the United States. The reelection of President Donald Trump, who begins his second term on January 20, 2025, will be a dynamic factor in shaping this three-way relationship
A possible Saudi Arabia-Israel-United States triangle
Geopolitical Intelligence Services
This report focuses on the nature and dynamics of human smuggling along this Eastern Route from the Horn of Africa across the Red Sea between locations of origin in Ethiopia and points of arrival along the coast of Lahj Governorate in Yemen. It examines the role of smugglers, the services they offer, the financial aspects of the journey, and how migrants perceive their smugglers.
Necessity rather than trust: Smuggling dynamics on the Eastern Route through Yemen
Mixed Migration Centre
A political crisis has wracked the interim capital of Aden as the internationally recognized government struggles to deal with the plummeting Yemeni rial. The currency now trades at over YR2,000 to the dollar, having lost over a third of its value since the year began. Riven by political infighting and lacking the vision or tools to arrest the slide, an acute economic collapse appears imminent if significant and sustained financial support does not arrive.
Rescuing Yemens Economy
Sanaa Center Economic Unit
Saudi Aramco is not only the largest oil producer globally but also the most profitable business, surpassing tech giants like Apple and Microsoft. Aramco is evolving far beyond its traditional role, now positioning itself at the forefront of economic diversification, technological innovation, and sustainability, aligning with the broader vision set forth by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman to transform the Saudi economy and reduce its dependence on oil.
Aramcos Diversification Strategy: Fueling Saudi Arabias Vision 2030
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Over the past decade, and especially since the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, Israel has assumed that its military, intelligence, and technological prowess can buy it allies among the Arab Gulf states. In more recent months, Israeli officials also came to believe that escalation would turn the regional equilibrium in their favor: a wider war between Israel and Iran and its proxies could force the Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, to finally and fully join with the Israelis.
The Saudi Solution
Foreign Affairs
Since the Israel-Gaza war erupted one year ago, the Middle East has been gripped by escalating conflict, humanitarian disaster and regional destabilisation. Despite ongoing international efforts to broker a ceasefire, tensions remain high.
Amid this turmoil, key regional players remain deeply concerned about an uncontrollable escalation. Saudi Arabia, in particular, finds itself in a delicate position: it seeks to maintain solidarity with the Palestinian cause while keeping perspectives for a pragmatic engagement with Israel on the table.
In Light of Regional Escalation: Saudi Arabias Not Alone Approach
Brussels International Center
Saudi Arabia’s ‘Vision 2030’ set in motion a large-scale, mainly state-led and top-down modernization agenda to diversify the Saudi economy beyond oil, develop a new national development ethos, reshape Saudi identity and introduce greater lifestyle options while maintaining consolidated rule in the hands of the Al Saud. The envisaged transformation is fully in line with the vested interests of the Saudi monarchy and much of the business elite, as well as some of the country’s younger generations.
Drivers and strategic puzzles of Saudi modernization
Clingendael Netherlands Institute of International Relations
Youth form a distinct social group in Yemeni political culture. After experiencing marginalization and manipulation during the era of President Ali Abdullah Saleh, the 2011 revolution gave hope for a new era of inclusion in which political parties would take Yemeni youth seriously as stakeholders and decision-makers on senior committees. However, the war that erupted following the Houthi takeover of Sana’a in 2014 erased gains made by youth during the transition period and led to divisions between youth activists inside and outside Yemen.
The impact of war on youth activism in Yemen
Sana'a Center for Strategic Studies
China’s recent third plenum highlights the Communist Party’s commitment to guiding the country’s economy through ongoing global tensions and domestic challenges by focusing on sustainable, high-quality growth fueled by advanced technologies. Despite a robust economic performance and a leading role in global green energy, China’s solar industry faces significant turbulence from overexpansion, fierce competition, and external tariffs.
Chinas Expanding Solar Footprint in the Gulf
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
For the Middle East, the energy-climate dilemma is causing a shift in strategy. Oil-producing countries along the Persian Gulf are at the epicenter of the energy transition, but its slow pace suggests difficult times in coming decades rather than in the next year or two. Economic risks from softening oil demand loom largest, but others — including the potential reduction in strategic importance to Washington and rebalancing of domestic social contracts — add further exposures.
Middle East Outlook: The Energy Transition Roils the Land of Oil
Baker Institute for Public Policy
Israel should maintain its traditional position of opposing the establishment of an independent nuclear fuel cycle in Saudi Arabia, given the negative strategic ramifications of such a move. Specifically, Israel should insist on applying the nuclear “gold standard,” as was the case with the United Arab Emirates.
The Proposal for a Regional Nuclear Fuel Bank in Saudi Arabia
The Institute for National Security Studies
In recent months, there has been a gradual thawing of hostilities among long-standing rivals in the Gulf. From the Chinese-brokered agreement between Saudi Arabia and Iran to normalize diplomatic relations to Saudi-Houthi peace talks over the war in Yemen and the subsided animosities within the Gulf Cooperation Council, concrete manifestations of detente abound.
Has Regional Detente Paved the Way for Collective Maritime Security in the Gulf?
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Gates Foundation, with the support of Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, convened an inaugural meeting of the Doha Global South Health Policy Initiative in Doha. The initiative was conceived as a response to stagnating health indicators in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), even before the COVID-19 pandemic, despite global commitments and significant funding from global health initiatives.
The Doha Global South Health Policy Initiative
Middle East Council on Global Affairs
September 13 will mark one year since Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Bahraini crown prince and prime minister Salman bin Hamad al-Khalifa signed the Comprehensive Security Integration and Prosperity Agreement (C-SIPA). In an era when Middle East partners have sought additional U.S. reassurances over fears that Washington might abandon the region, the signing of C-SIPA offers a new roadmap for multinational cooperation.
One Year of the U.S.-Bahrain C-SIPA: Signs of Progress, Regional Potential
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Today we’re putting a special focus on water: sanitation, hygiene, health implications and dimensions of that. That covers a broad complex of issues: access to clean water, water production, desalination, management of human waste and garbage, and treatment. It brings forward questions of what available clean and safe water is available per person in the midst of this crisis, and at what quality.
Gazas Water Crisis-What Can Be Done
Center for Strategic International Studies
Saudi Arabia has historically played a significant role in the global oil market as a swing producer—a country or company with the ability to significantly influence global oil prices by adjusting its production levels—within the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC). This stance has given Riyadh enormous influence over oil prices due to its ability to change oil output levels as the world’s second-largest producer
Saudi Arabias strategy with the OPEC
Observer Research Foundation
With trade in goods among Arab countries remaining modest, trade in services could play the pivotal role of an engine of growth in economic integration within the region, as well greater participation in global value chains. This column outlines progress to date and what needs to be done to make a success of AFTAS, the Arab free trade area in services.
Can a free trade area in services boost trade within the Arab region?
Economic Research Forum (ERF)
The United Arab Emirates signed the 2020 Abraham Accords with Israel in pursuit of strategic benefits. During the Gaza war, costs are becoming clear. Abu Dhabi shows no sign of rethinking normalisation, but it might consider smaller steps to register discontent with the Israeli campaign.
Reading Of The Week: The UAE, Israel and a Test of Influence
International Crisis Group
A little over a year ago, the icy relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia underwent a remarkable thaw. Following a handshake between their foreign ministers in Beijing, the two countries restored diplomatic ties, reopened their respective embassies, and dispatched a flurry of high-level visits to each other’s capitals.
Beyond guns and oil: The emerging soft power rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia
Middle East Institute
In May 2023, the Saudi biomedical engineer Rayyanah Barnawi became the first Arab woman to go to space when she joined a private company’s mission to the International Space Station. Saudi Arabia has long been known for its harsh restrictions on women’s employment, but in the past 15 years it has raced to offer women more chances to work outside the home.
Working Women Are Changing Saudi Arabia
Foreign Affairs
In latest years, the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) states have quickly grown up and have become middle regional powers with global influence. These states have experimented and valued the international multipolar order learning how to navigate it through rivalries and crises.
Gulf Monarchies Bolder Multipolar Moment
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
In an effort to stimulate economic growth and diversify the economy, the government of the United Arab Emirates has recently implemented regulatory reform that allows 100% foreign ownership of companies operating in the country. This column examines the implications of the reform for entry of new firms in Dubai.
Reformed foreign ownership rules in UAE: the impact on business entry
Economic Research Forum
As the Gulf region navigates the challenges of the energy transition and geopolitical dynamics, regional and international cooperation have become even more essential. The importance of regional energy cooperation in the Gulf has long been a focal point for policymakers, industry leaders, and stakeholders in the region and globally, even during heightened tensions and conflicts.
Avenues for Regional Energy Cooperation in the Gulf
Istituto Affari Internazionali
The ICC prosecutor has said he is seeking arrest warrants for top Hamas and Israeli figures in connection with crimes committed since 7 October 2023. In this Q&A, Crisis Group experts Brian Finucane, Stephen Pomper and Mairav Zonszein examine the legal and political implications.
All Eyes on The Hague: The ICC Prosecutors Move against Hamas and Israeli Leaders
International Crisis Group
Since the mid-2010s, the Red Sea has been at the center of Saudi Arabia’s foreign policy due to the interplay of domestic, regional, and international dynamics. Economic projects under Vision 2030 have reflected Riyadh’s goals in the Red Sea and how the kingdom imagines the future of the region connecting the Arabian Peninsula with Africa.
Saudi Arabia Has a Red Sea Vision, Not Yet a Strategy
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
Desalinating sea water has the potential to meet the increasing water demand beyond conventional freshwater resources. Up until recent years, desalination projects were limited to a handful of countries given the associated high costs and energy consumption. However, technological advancements have paved the way for larger utilization of desalination projects.
Reading of the Week: The impact of desalination projects on the power grid. Insights from Gulf States
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
Oman relaunches bilateral relations with the United Arab Emirates (UAE), thus strengthening its position as infrastructural hub across the regions. On April 22, 2024, the Sultan of Oman Haitham bin Tariq Al Said visited the UAE to discuss with the Emirati president Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (also known as MbZ) about bilateral, regional and international issues.
Omans sultan goes to the UAE: Why it matters also to the US and China
Italian Institute for International Political Studies
Diversifying the economy away from oil is one of the key goals of Saudi Arabia’s Vision 2030 program. Data from 2022 indicated that progress was being made toward a more diversified economy. Similarly, developments in exports, output, government revenue, and employment show that, across most metrics, further progress was made during 2023, although oil is still the dominant force in the Saudi economy
Continued Progress in Saudi Economic Diversification
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
The Biden administration has responded positively to Saudi Arabia’s interest in civil nuclear cooperation with the United States—both because such cooperation is a Saudi condition for the normalization of Saudi-Israeli relations, which the administration strongly supports, and because it believes a bilateral civil nuclear partnership can bring important benefits to both countries.
A way forward on a US-Saudi civil nuclear agreement
Brookings
Amid the chaos and war of the past five months, Palestinian constitutional issues have hardly been at the forefront of anybody’s mind. That is a problem: neglecting the structure of Palestinian institutions over the past thirty years has deeply aggravated—and continues to deeply aggravate—Palestine’s political crisis.
Why an Interim Constitution Could Help Palestine: The Domestic and International Payoffs
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
Future climate change is set to increase temperatures around the Gulf further still, rising twice as fast as the global average and pushing the cities of this rapidly growing region toward the edge of their viability as human habitats. But how did this situation come to be in the first place, and why did humans settle in such an inhospitable environment and build such cities around the Gulf waters?
Pillars of sand: The environmental fragility of Gulf cities
Middle East Institute
A year after restoring diplomatic ties, Saudi Arabia and Iran still experience tensions. Conversations and diplomatic re-openings haven't translated into significant agreements due to ongoing regional conflicts and deep-seated distrust, especially concerning their allies and the situations in Yemen and Lebanon.
Saudi-Iranian Relations Restored But Remain Tense
Wilson Center
State-run oil giant Saudi Aramco announced last week that the Saudi government had directed it to pause plans to increase the company’s maximum sustainable capacity (MSC) for crude oil production to 13 million barrels per day (Mb/d). The expansion program had aimed to reach that target by 2027, rising from the current MSC of 12 Mb/d, with work already underway on a number of oilfields.
Want Power in the Oil Market? Hold Spare Capacity!
Baker Institute for Public Policy
For decades, Saudi Arabia and Iran have been on opposing ends of regional conflicts, fueled by sectarian and ideological differences as well as geopolitical jostling. The involvement of regional and global powers further complicated this rivalry.
Why the Saudi-Iranian Pact Is Withstanding the Gaza War
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington
For several years, Arab publics across the Middle East have increasingly expressed interest in partnerships with Russia and China amidst almost unanimous negative attitudes towards the United States. The United States’ active support for Israel and the war against Hamas since October 7 have only amplified anti-U.S. sentiment across the region.
With Attention on Gaza, Russia and China Continue Economic and Military Inroads in Arab States
Washington Institute for Near East Policy
In addition to investing billions in the domestic economy, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund (PIF) has also made smaller and less eye-catching investments in other countries in its neighborhood. These investments can not only foster knowledge exchanges to help diversify the Saudi economy, but they’re also important tools of economic statecraft as Riyadh strengthens its position around the Red Sea and in the Levant.
Jordanian ambitions, Saudi funds: A look at Saudi investments in Jordan
Middle East Institute
In a region often perceived through a lens of uniformity, particularly in its treatment of women, the Middle East presents a tapestry of contrasts and complexities. This report is a comparative study of women’s socio-political and economic status in Iran, Oman, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The Status of Womens Rights in the Middle East
Stimson Center
Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund is likely to become the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund by the end of the decade, but raising the resources to fund its ambitious domestic investment program may increase economic and financial risks.
Going Big: Assessing the Growth Ambitions of the Saudi Public Investment Fund
The Arab Gulf States Institute in Washington (AGSIW)
The annual multilateral Conference of the Parties (COP) has become one of the most important meetings on the global agenda. So, the fact that the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will host COP28 starting this week in Dubai - on the coattails of another Arab country, Egypt, hosting COP27 in 2022-is a big deal. Bringing such important international meetings to the Global South is a step forward in decentering and reorienting global climate action.
Reading of the Week: Gaza, Yemen, Syria, Human Rights, and Oil - The Elephants in the COP28 Room
Wilson Center
The conflict in Gaza and Israel is causing immense human suffering. In addition to the direct impact, the conflict will also have consequences for the broader Middle East and North Africa region, with impacts on both people and economies. This comes at a time when economic activity in the region was already expected to slow, falling from 5.6 percent in 2022 to 2 percent in 2023.
Middle East Conflict Risks Reshaping The Regions Economies
International Monetary Fund
Over nine years of violence and conflict have profoundly altered the Republic of Yemen’s economy. The war has shattered the country’s already fragile socioeconomic equilibria, affecting nearly every facet of life. Since the onset of the conflict, economic diagnostics have focused on descriptions of the deteriorating macro-fiscal and poverty conditions, lack of food security, and loss of capital accumulation.
Alternative Paths for Yemen up to 2030 A CGE-Based Simulation Analysis
World Bank Group
Southern Iraq, once known as the Garden of Eden, is poised to become a scorching wasteland in the forthcoming decades. A study, led by this author in collaboration with the chief researcher of the Israel Meteorological Service, Dr Yoav Levi, projects that in the not-too-distant future, residents of this region will endure hours daily with temperatures soaring above 55°C.
Reading of The Week: The other looming crisis in the Middle East - Climate change
Observer Research Foundation
At present, five different scenarios for how the situation in Gaza could develop seem most plausible. These scenarios are not mutually exclusive and could well overlap or follow one another.
Five scenarios for Gaza and how the international community can shape its future
Middle East Institute
A senior Houthi delegation arrived in Riyadh on September 14, the first such trip since the outset of the conflict. Bilateral Saudi-Houthi talks began in earnest after a failure to extend a UN-sanctioned truce last year and accelerated after a Beijing-brokered détente between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the spring. Talks appeared to stall over the summer, but the visit suggests progress on a deal could be shortly forthcoming.
Houthis Make Official Visit to Riyadh for Talks with Saudi Arabia
Sana’a Center for Strategic Studies
Together, the Arab Gulf states - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) - have become a global power. Led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE, and to some extent Qatar, they have a major influence on the world’s energy, financial, political, and, consequently, environmental affairs. This gives rise to the question: How big a role do the Arab Gulf states play in steering the global climate change agenda?
The Arab Gulf Helps Fuel the Global Economy. What It Means for the Energy Transition
Baker Institute for Public Policy
In an official government statement submitted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) General Conference on September 25, Saudi energy minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman wrote, “The Kingdom has decided recently to rescind the Small Quantities Protocol and implement the full Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement. The Kingdom is working, within the framework of its national ecosystem, to establish the necessary mechanisms for this full implementation, following best international practices and experiences"
Saudi Arabia Signals It Will Accept Stricter Nuclear Inspections
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
Of all the challenges to Saudi Vision 20301 Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salmans (MBS) high-stakes plan for life after oil arguably none is greater than Irans threat to Saudi national security. To succeed, MBS must protect the kingdom, which will require not only fortifying its defenses against further Iranian and Houthi attacks but also establishing a level of deterrence against Tehran.
Saudi Arabias Deterrence Options Against Iran
Middle East Institute
The COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the Russia-Ukraine war, which began in February 2022, deepened the economic crises that many countries in the Arab world were already facing, while helping others, especially in the Gulf region. Today, hydrocarbon-importing countries are having to deal with unprecedented increases in food and energy prices, as well as soaring levels of unemployment, debt, and inflation.
Reform or Recklessness? Which Path for the Arab Region?
Carnegie Middle East Center
The oil and natural gas industry has historically played a pivotal role in the economies and political power structures of Saudi Arabia and the other Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, generating fortunes from the export of these fossil fuels and thus enhancing their international influence. However, as the world shifts toward a cleaner, more sustainable future, the GCC states are also embracing this proud transition, moving from oil wells to power cells.
From oil wells to power cells: How Saudi Arabia and its Gulf neighbors are securing their future through battery technology
The Middle east Institute
A struggle is underway for control of Area C (60 percent of the West Bank). The Palestinians are eager to control the area, which they see as essential to a contiguous and viable Palestinian state. In contrast, the Israeli government is working to push the Palestinians out of the area and prepare to annex it. Normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia is an opportunity for a change of approach in the struggle to regulate the control over Area C and block an emerging, dangerous one-state reality.
The Struggle over Area C: Change Direction toward a Space for Understanding with the Palestinian Authority
The Institute for National Security Studies
Climate change in the Middle East will amplify preexisting vulnerabilities stemming from conflict, displacement, marginalization, and corruption, while also creating new risks. Governments in the region will need to adopt more inclusive reforms as part of their climate adaptation strategies.
Climate Change and Vulnerability in the Middle East
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
The kingdom has substantial gaps in its ability to handle nonconventional attacks or incidents involving the release of hazardous materials but addressing them now could improve both its readiness at home and its interoperability with foreign forces.
Bolstering Saudi Arabias CBRN Defenses
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
A recent essay touting a “one-state” approach to Israel-Palestinian issues is more about eliminating the world’s only Jewish state than offering real solutions to complex regional problems.
The No-State Solution
The Washington Institute for near policy
Abdullah Baabood is a nonresident scholar at the Malcolm H. Kerr Carnegie Middle East Center. He holds the chair of the state of Qatar for Islamic area studies and is a visiting professor at the Faculty of International Research and Education at Waseda University in Tokyo. Recently, he wrote an article for Carnegie titled, “Why China Is Emerging as a Main Promoter of Stability in the Strait of Hormuz.” Diwan interviewed Baabood in late May to discuss his article, and more broadly to get his perspective on China’s changing role in the Middle East, particularly with regard to the Gulf countries.
Chinas Middle Eastern Moment
Carnegie Middle East Center
The agreement to resume diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia in March 2023 marks a remarkable moment for the Gulf region. As most regional players have become aware that the traditional zero-sum game driven by ideological, political, and security competition does not bear fruit to preserve national interests, the agreement thus provides a window of opportunity for more regional cooperation.
Gulf Region Reconciliation: Boosting Climate Action and Energy Cooperation
Brussels International Center
Because of its reliance on the Gulf region for much of its oil and gas, China has a strong interest in preserving security in the region, an early example of which was its mediation of the recent Saudi Arabia-Iran reconciliation. The Strait of Hormuz is the world’s single-most important energy corridor, forming a chokepoint between the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman.
Why China Is Emerging as a Main Promoter of Stability in the Strait of Hormuz
Carnegie Middle East Center
In the eight years since Saudi Arabia launched its military offensive against Yemen’s Houthi rebel movement Ansar Allah, much attention has been devoted to Iran’s and Hizbullah’s military assistance to the Houthis. Also important is Hizbullah’s conceptual influence on the Houthis, and the Houthis’ efforts to emulate Hizbullah.
Houthis in the Footsteps of Hizbullah
Taylor & Francis Online
The MED This Week newsletter provides expert analysis and informed insights on the most significant developments in the MENA region, bringing together unique opinions on the topic and reliable foresight on possible future scenarios. Today we shed light upon the Arab League’s decision to reintegrate Syria, thus ending a 12-year suspension and marking a tangible diplomatic milestone for al-Assad.
Syrias Arab League Comeback: Breakthrough or Premature Decision?
Mediterranean Dialogues
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect – across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect – across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
The war in Yemen has reached an inflection point. Back-channel talks between two of the main belligerents – the Huthi rebels and Saudi Arabia, the chief external patron of the internationally recognised government – are proceeding amid a shaky informal truce. The front lines have stayed mostly quiet since April 2022, when the parties concluded a formal truce, despite that agreement’s expiry six months later. The pause in hostilities has helped the Huthi-Saudi parley along, and a deal appears to be on the horizon.
Yemens Troubled Presidential Leadership Council
International Crisis Group
The war in Yemen has reached an inflection point. Back-channel talks between two of the main belligerents – the Huthi rebels and Saudi Arabia, the chief external patron of the internationally recognised government – are proceeding amid a shaky informal truce. The front lines have stayed mostly quiet since April 2022, when the parties concluded a formal truce, despite that agreement’s expiry six months later. The pause in hostilities has helped the Huthi-Saudi parley along, and a deal appears to be on the horizon.
Yemens Troubled Presidential Leadership Council
International Crisis Group
Western capitals were caught unaware by the announcement in Beijing last month of the breakthrough Iran-Saudi deal to restore diplomatic relations.
The China-brokered landmark agreement certainly has the potential to spark significant changes - both direct and indirect - across the Middle East. Less visible but equally significant are the myriad ways in which the breakthrough deal is likely to hasten a global re-ordering of state-to-state relations and regional alliances, thereby accelerating the rising power and clout of the Global South.
The China-Brokered Iran-Saudi Deal Could Re-Order Global Politics, Not Just the Middle East
Brussels International Center
Recent weeks have seen growing closeness between China and Iran, which peaked with the signing of several important bilateral agreements and successful Chinese mediation between Beijing and Riyadh. What lies behind this rapprochement and what obstacles lie ahead?
Whither Iran and China? A Limited Partnership, yet Deep and Durable
The Institute for National Security Studies
In the longer term, the increased flow of weapons will likely exacerbate tensions in the region, spur Arab states to enhance their own arsenals, and endanger any U.S. and partner forces that confront Tehran’s proxies.
What the Russia-Iran Arms Deals Mean for the Middle East
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
From their earliest days, Hezbollah and Hamas have seen immense value in closely monitoring Israel’s media. However, their reliance on open-source information has proven a double-edged sword, as both groups have been misled into making poor strategic decisions. Either Hezbollah or Hamas is likely to identify the current crisis in Israel over the new government’s proposed reform of Israel’s judiciary as an opportunity to act against it.
Will Hamas and Hezbollah Try Again to Tear the Israeli Spiderweb?
Begin-Sadat Center for Strategic Studies
Iranian drone strikes, as exemplified by the September 2019 attack against Saudi Aramco facilities, have jolted Middle East leaders and revealed Tehran’s long-range precision strike capabilities. The regime’s large and growing drone force, which can be used for reconnaissance or strike missions, now poses an existential threat to the Gulf states and a direct threat to Israel, as does its formidable missile force. Moreover, Iranian drones transferred to Russia have had a significant impact on Moscow’s war against Ukraine.
Reading of the Week: Striking Back. Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
China has displayed support for the Palestinians over past decades, and Israel, for its part, has chosen “elegantly to look the other way.” The last two years, however, have seen a change: China has heightened its rhetoric, and Israel has joined the global criticism of China’s human rights policies. How will this affect relations between Jerusalem and Beijing?
China, Israel, and the Palestinians: Navigating Politics and Economics
The Institute for National Security Studies
Amid widening West Bank violence, the far-right minister is pursuing a policy leading to de facto annexation, and it is unclear whether Netanyahu will cap these ambitions. On February 22-23, an Israeli government panel advanced plans to construct over seven thousand new housing units in various settlements, the largest such decision ever issued at a single planning meeting.
Israel Expands Settlements as Smotrich Increases His Authority
The Washington Institute
Successive protests in 2009, 2019 and 2022 have poignantly laid bare the much reduced social and political legitimacy of Iran’s ruling elites. Reform-from-within is no longer viewed as credible. Even former pro-reform leaders like Mousavi have abandoned hope and call for regime change. While further protests are inevitable, it is nevertheless unlikely that they will produce a revolution that overthrows the regime in the short-term, as long as their national organisation and leadership remain weak, Iran’s ruling elites cohesive, security forces loyal, and the administration continues to function.
Protests in Iran in comparative perspective
Clingendael
“The way out is through the door. Why not use this exit?” Do these words by Confucius apply to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict? The Arab Peace Initiative to resolve the conflict was presented over twenty years ago, but to date most Israeli governments have chosen to ignore it or reject it. Why now might it be the time to give it a chance?
Reality-Guided Imagination: The Angel of History Considers the Palestinian Issue
The Institute for National Security Studies
Iranian drone strikes, as exemplified by the September 2019 attack against Saudi Aramco facilities, have jolted Middle East leaders and revealed Tehran’s long-range precision strike capabilities. The regime’s large and growing drone force, which can be used for reconnaissance or strike missions, now poses an existential threat to the Gulf states and a direct threat to Israel, as does its formidable missile force.
Striking Back: Iran and the Rise of Asymmetric Drone Warfare in the Middle East
The Washington Institute
The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries - Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates - are among the world’s richest in oil and gas resources, but the poorest in terms of freshwater. The majority of these countries depend on their hydrocarbon resources to fuel their economies and produce necessities like potable water through seawater desalination. In fact, all GCC states are currently prioritizing energy and water security to assure the sustainability and reliability of access and productivity under normal and emergency circumstances.
Building Water and Energy Security in the GCC through an Integrated Policy Approach
Baker Institute for Public Policy
How much is the public in the Arab world worried about the economic situation? the security situation? What percentage would like to emigrate? What are the attitudes toward Israel – and have these attitudes shifted in light of the Abraham Accords or Israel’s “change government”? An examination of public opinion polls conducted in the area reveals interesting insights about Israel’s neighboring countries, and these insights are important for decision makers in Jerusalem
What Do the Arabs Think? Public Opinion in Arab Countries
The Institute for National Security Studies
Drug smuggling has become a central source of income for the Assad regime and its ally Hezbollah. Under the auspices of the Syrian regime and the Shiite organization, massive amounts of drugs are smuggled throughout the Middle East, primarily Captagon, known as “poor man’s cocaine.” Why does Israel have to be mindful of this phenomenon and even join the regional struggle against it?
Narcos, Syria-Lebanon Style
The Institute for National Security Studies
On 25 March 2022, the Houthis launched a large-scale attack on Saudi Arabia using a combination of loitering munitions, ballistic missiles, and cruise missiles. This coordinated attack targeted oil refineries and energy infrastructure across Saudi territory, from Asir to the Eastern Province, and even threatened the Formula 1 Grand Prix in Jeddah. Yet, it turned out to be the last major gasp of the aerial war between Riyadh and the Sanaa-based government that had started in 2015.
Beyond Riyadh: Houthi Cross-Border Aerial Warfare 2015-2022
Armed Conflict Location & Event Data
In recent months, the Ukraine war has underscored the centrality of the debate on national and regional energy strategies to global economic and geopolitical security as well as the climate crisis. This paper looks at how three of the major Gulf energy actors – Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates – have reacted to the pressures of recent geopolitical developments as well as the longer-term trend of the global shift towards cleaner energy. There are precedents for state actors, including Gulf actors, to focus in on the renewable energy sector as part of wider energy efforts during periods of uncertainty and instability across the international system.
Transforming the Renewables Sector in the Gulf: The Evolving Strategies of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE
Al Jazeera
The visit by Chinese President Xi Jinping to Saudi Arabia, which included three summit meetings, moved relations between China and the Arab world at least one step forward. Alongside signed agreements and partnerships agreed on by both sides, the visit had a substantial symbolic side aimed at projecting independence, consolidating Saudi Arabia’s leading status among Arab states, and enabling Mohammed bin Salman to demonstrate his leadership to his people prior to his accession to the throne.
Xi of Arabia - Enjoying the Favor of the King
Institute for National Security Studies
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 3.3 to 3.6 billion people are highly vulnerable to climate change effects, especially “in locations with poverty, governance challenges and limited access to basic services and resources, violent conflict and high levels of climate-sensitive livelihoods”.
Changing Opinions: Climate and the Arab Population
Brussels International Center