Energy Security Vs. Energy Transition: A Zero-Sum Game?

While the pandemic crisis seems to be gradually receding, Russia's invasion of Ukraine is clearly a turning point. With it comes a return to conventional approaches to energy security - uninterrupted availability and affordability of energy are crucial.

At the same time, most industrialized countries appear to be confirming their commitments to a net-zero climate target. This decision underscores the importance of strengthening the vector of energy security in the broader context of energy transition policies.

In a context where potentially more unknown variables could amplify insecurity, both net energy consuming and net energy producing countries face difficult choices in attempting to protect the resilience of their energy systems while fostering their transformation.

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Background

To better understand the balance between energy security and energy transition, the NATO-ICI Regional Center and the NATO Strategic Direction-South Hub organized a joint Study Day on May 17, 2022, on "Energy Security and Energy Transition: A Zero-Sum Game?"

This report captures the presentations made by the experts during the study day, while expanding the analysis to provide the reader with a broader understanding of such an important topic.

Research questions

The impact of the wars in Ukraine and Yemen on energy security.
The feasibility of an energy transition to net-zero by 2050.
The impact of a net-zero transitions on energy policy in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

Key insights

Trends

The ongoing wars in Ukraine and Yemen have severely affected global energy security by hampering the availability of affordable energy resources. For many countries, the timeline for energy transition to renewable energy sources has been pushed back, not only because of the conflicts, but also because of COVID-19.
The GCC countries find themselves in a conundrum - carefully balancing energy security with energy transition to renewables and net zero emissions.
To address the energy transition, OPEC has incorporated peak oil demand into its forecast and is preparing for a future of declining demand. In a world that is energy-hungry and facing climate change, peaceful cooperation is needed, not competition.

Key recommendations

Study the economic feasibility of decreasing domestic fossil fuel consumption while meeting domestic demand through the development of domestic renewable energy industries (photovoltaic and wind).
Assess current, medium and long-term fossil fuel production facilities, pipeline capacities, pipeline specializations (e.g., type of oil) against short and medium-term increases in global demand.