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Following the complete analysis of a two-year period, a broader and more nuanced understanding of the dynamics of terrorism over time has been achieved, identifying new TVEO trends, capacity building and strategies in the Sahel region.

The international community has identified Al-Shabaab (AS) as a major threat to international security. The particular focus is on its established links to Al Qaeda (AQ) and the question of an AS expansion of its area of activities beyond Somalia into Kenya, Djibouti, Ethiopia, Uganda and beyond. The widespread assumption within the international community has long been that, if left unchecked, AS would expand across the region and as such extend the global reach of its ally, AQ. The primary aim of this research project is to interrogate this widespread assumption.

This paper deals with the challenge of education, job skills development and youth unemployment over the next 30 years in Africa and the Middle East with a specific focus on Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). While this focus does not imply diminished importance of the youth bulge across Africa and the Middle East as a whole, it is intended to highlight the phenomenon where, for the next three decades, it is likely to be the most extreme and creating the greatest cause for concern, therefore being the most relevant for NATO.

The NSD-S Hub and The Conflict Prevention and Early Warning Division of the African Union developed this paper to address the fact that, although the "Youth Bulge" is not a new phenomenon, over the past decade the youth population has demonstrated the power to reshape the political and security landscapes in Africa and the Middle East. The population growth, in combination with globalisation, and digitalisation in particular, has the potential for negative impact on the security environment in these regions and beyond. This is of growing importance since it has been assessed that by the end of the century the number of young people in Africa will be double the size of the entire European population.

This paper deals with indisputable fact that a Youth Bulge exacerbates the issues of migration and the brain drain, as unemployment threatens African youth and rampant poverty and inequalities still cloud the perspectives of those living where sound structural change has yet to take place. The lack of good quality job opportunities represents a severe challenge for Africa and the Middle East and, since many states fail to absorb the increasingly large youth population, more and more young people are resorting to migrating abroad permanently, since intra-Africa migration is often hindered by regional regulations on worker mobility. As many young people migrate towards Europe and America in search of better prospects, the "brain drain", namely the migration of engineers, physicians, scientists and other very highly skilled and educated professionals, becomes a particularly compelling issue.

The Gulf of Guinea (GoG) is an important geopolitical chokepoint for the shipping and transportation of oil extracted in the Niger delta, as well as for goods to and from central and southern Africa. Piracy, armed robbery at sea, illegal fishing, smuggling, and trafficking, pose a significant threat to maritime security in the GoG, and ultimately to the economic development of the entire region.

NATO Strategic Direction-South Hub ("the Hub") hosted a live online Webinar on 24 November, 2020 at which it engaged and learnt from African experts sharing regional experience and audience comments. The discussion examined the root causes of terrorism and radicalization, the challenges of dealing with them at domestic and regional levels and the best practices in the region.

Technological innovation and digital transformations brought the possibility of improving and change significantly the human condition in a short lap of time. It is expected that the near future will be marked by learning machines, artificial intelligence, edited genomes, autonomous systems , virtual stateless currencies, and private space travel. All this represents an incredible potential for human welfare. Nevertheless, these emerging and disruptive technologies represent also enormous challenges as well to nations and individuals.

Understanding the intricacies of radicalisation and the complex relationships between it and civilian populations is certainly necessary for the development of a comprehensive approach to it. The question of the role of religion in the radicalisation process is integral to this development, and therefore directly relevant to new and/or improved Preventing/Countering Violent Extremism (P/CVE) measures. And the answer is perhaps not as clear as you might think.

As NATO is committed to addressing the flow of illicit small arms and light weapons (SALW) through legal and technical means and also via cultural, societal and functional methods, the Hub has collaborated with experts from across North and Sub-Saharan Africa to gain greater insight into this issue. In our discussions, 5 recommendations were identified.

The complex question of the Foreign Terrorist Fighters and their families returning from areas once controlled by DAESH is a high priority policy area for NATO members and its partners, particularly in the South. Of the at least 6,900 foreign women – some 3,000 from the MENA region – who are believed to have traveled to join DAESH in Syria and Iraq, it is unclear how many have actually returned to their home countries since the fall of the terrorist group’s last stronghold of Baghouz in 2019. What has happened to these women? Are they trying to return? What awaits them when they arrive?

NATO Strategic Direction South Hub (NSD-S Hub) and Three Stones International (TSI) collaborated to conduct a live online webinar on the 28 April, 2020, supplemented by secondary data review and an online survey, to better understand Africa’s response to COVID-19, and relative successes, challenges and recommendations for NATO’s contribution. The webinar dialogue and audience comments allowed the NSD-S Hub to engage and learn from African experts sharing regional experience from eight different countries. The discussion addressed COVID-19 preparedness and response across the African continent, including the overall impact on political, economic and social stability. While the panellists touched on matters related to the immediate impacts on health and wellbeing of citizens, they also addressed the long-term implications to trade, national and regional economies, political stability and regional cooperation. Additionally, the dialogue explored recommendations for support which African nations and NATO could employ both in pandemic response and post-pandemic recovery.

China’s involvement in Africa and the Middle East region is not new but it has significantly increased since the implementation of the Belt and Road Initiative. Globally, even though China remains behind other historical partners such as the USA or Europe, the growth rate of its engagement is far higher. The gradual erosion of the Chinese principle of non-intervention has led China to change its posture vis-à-vis other developing countries, shouldering its responsibilities to help and, in some cases, to act as a model.

On February 11, 2020 NATO’s Strategic Direction – South Hub (NSD-S Hub), in collaboration with Three Stones International (TSI), facilitated a webinar dialogue on the condition of trafficking in persons (TIP) and human smuggling in Africa. This live webinar, in conjunction with a secondary data review, and an online survey supported the NSD-S Hub’s research agenda regarding the promotion of political and economic stability in Africa. The webinar panelists were subject matter experts in the fields of human trafficking, smuggling, migration, and human rights. Additionally, data was collected via surveys from an additional 20 subject matter experts from 13 different African countries, which provided the NSD-S Hub with well-informed insight into the realities of TIP and human smuggling in Africa.

Over the last decade, mass and unregulated migration has sparked significant concerns in public opinion, particularly in Europe. While the number of new arrivals of migrants has sharply declined from its high of over one million in 2015, the movement and integration of those from across the Mediterranean remain today of major concern for Europe and, by extension, the Atlantic Alliance. Nonetheless, the development of a collective understanding among NATO members of the security implications of such migration for the wider Mediterranean region (including North Africa and Sahel) has not yet been achieved. Making the topic even more complex is the inclusion of the question of direct connections between migrants and terrorists in its framing of the issue.

A digital technology revolution has swept across the African continent over the last two decades, facilitating new business ventures and connecting the African people in ways never before possible. NATO Strategic Direction South Hub (NSD-S Hub), in collaboration with Three Stones International, arranged an online video conference with various subject matter experts from across Africa to discuss the challenges and opportunities of digital technology on the continent.

The Gulf of Guinea is one of the World’s richest yet still under-developed regions. It produces about 5 million barrels of oil per day and about 600 thousand tons of fish are caught every year. There are 1.2 million hectares of mangroves, large reserves of minerals and other natural resources such as gas, diamonds, gold and uranium as well as a very rich rain forest, accounting for 20% of the world’s total, which provides shelter and protection to a large portion of the World’s biodiversity. The region is also a major maritime highway for world trade which, considering the abundance of raw materials, further increases its relevance for rich and industrialised countries.

Russia’s increasing assertiveness in Africa and the Middle East can be seen both as a reaction to the economic and political containment regime enforced by western countries after the annexation of Crimea and as a further effort to improve its geopolitical standing, well beyond the near abroad where Moscow has been consistently advocating the idea of a "Russian world".

Until very recently, energy security had been considered a purely economic issue, whereas it is now understood to be a multi-dimensional concept made up of technical, economic, social, environmental and geo-political aspects. The absence of protection from or adaptability to threats caused by or having an effect on the energy supply chain’ is a commonly accepted definition.

The security situation in this sub-region is highly complex due to several socio-economic, political and geo-political factors which range from extreme poverty to maritime insecurity.

The region of the Great Lakes, and the Democratic Republic of Congo in particular, are affected by the Conflict Minerals that perpetuates underdevelopment, exacerbates armed conflicts, funds rebel armed groups, and maintains high levels of human rights violations. The nexus between minerals and conflicts is not well analyzed. Therefore, local African experts were sought by to help contextualize this nexus while exchanging views on how NATO can better contribute to security and stability.

The continent of Africa has a multitude of resources and competition for them is extremely complicated. Many external actors are often very interested in one or more resource. In some cases the need is critical, made even more intense when several external actors each have critical needs. Often the resources are strategic for several external actors and are at the same time limited.

Non-state armed groups, including violent extremist organizations, self-defense militias, and criminal gangs, are governance providers to local populations in the Sahel to a much greater degree than previously reported in the so-called "ungoverned spaces. NSAGs provide four key forms of governance: security; justice; political and economic administration; social support and enforcement of social rules, across large sections of Mali, but also in Burkina Faso and Niger.

Africa, as a continent of economic opportunities, is attracting foreign players. In this context, India is emerging as an important partner, especially for Eastern and Southern Africa. The complexity of its geopolitical environment combined with internal specificities motivated the revival of interest for the continent.

The NATO Strategic Direction – South HUB connects allies, partners, civil society and subject matter experts to better predict and prevent instability and insecurity.