Weekly Security Readings 23 May 2019
"This document contains links to articles and/or press agency release from multiple open sources, agencies and academia. The contents, ideas or opinions in the document do not reflect NSD-S HUB or NATO views neither conform to the organization naming convention”
READING OF THE WEEK
Instability In Libya: Assessing The Regional Impacts
NATO Allied Command Transformation
Post-revolutionary Libya has been subject to violent competition, fragmentation and the breakdown of effective governance. Centralized political authority remained in some form following the overthrow of the Gaddafi regime but collapsed in 2014 when rival governments emerged. The internationally-backed GNA has been unable to function as the unity government it was envisaged to be. The fragmented security scene further complicates the picture, as a wide array of armed groups control territory.
NORTH AFRICA / SAHEL / SUB – SAHARA
Inside Africa : African Economic Outlook 2019
Africa’s general economic performance continues to recover and GDP growth is projected to accelerate to 4.0 % in 2019 and 4.1 % in 2020. But improved macroeconomic and employment outcomes require industry to lead growth, according to the 2019 African Economic Outlook report, launched today by the African Development Bank (ADB). Published annually since 2003, the ADB’s flagship report provides headline numbers on Africa’s economic performance and outlook.
Opportunities for Gas in Sub-Saharan Africa
The Oxford Institute for Energy Studies
In his December 2017 paper entitled "Challenges to the Future of Gas: unburnable or unaffordable?” Jonathan Stern noted that "For the period up to 2030, the principal threats to the future of gas (outside North America) will be affordability and competitiveness. Beyond that date - and particularly beyond 2040 – carbon (and potentially also methane) emissions from gas will cause it to become progressively ‘unburnable’ if COP21 targets are to be met.”
Chinese and Russian Influence in the Middle East
Center for Strategic and International Studies - CSIS
It’s important to remember that, 20 years ago, every government in the Middle East was either friendly to the United States government or seeking to become more so. While the United States was not exactly triumphant, it was unquestionably dominant. A great deal has happened in the last twenty years, and the United States is now struggling to determine what its position in the region should be, while Russia and China carefully advance their interests.
IMF Country Report No. 19/127 – JORDAN
International Monetary Fund - IMF
The Executive Board of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) today completed the second review of Jordan’s economic performance under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility (EFF). The completion of the second review enables the disbursement of SDR 120.085 million (about US$166.4 million), bringing total disbursements under the program to SDR 223.015 million (about US$309. million)
If Iran Deploys Missiles in Iraq: U.S.-Israeli Response Options
The Washington Institute for Near East Policy
If Iran duplicates its formula from Lebanon, Syria, and Yemen by sending long-range missiles to Iraq, then future conflicts with Israel would likely include military action on Iraqi soil. Iran’s long-range rockets and missiles allow it to threaten enemy forces and populations hundreds of kilometers away, while proxy warfare enables it to indirectly harass and deter these enemies with minimal risk of confrontation on Iranian territory.
A Political Economy of Water
Water is no ordinary good, economic or otherwise. Among other things, it is essential, non-substitutable, scarce, fugitive, indivisible, bulky, and complex (Savenije 2002). While we all, as individuals, cannot live without it, water used in our highly differentiated daily pursuits varies dramatically in terms of both quantity and quality: from as little as 10–100 litres (from one-one hundredth to one-tenth of a cubic metre) per person per day for immediate household purposes, to thousands of cubic metres per day used in complex, extensive, cash-crop oriented, irrigated agriculture.
Military and Security Developments Involving the People’s Republic of China 2019
US Department of Defense
China’s leaders have benefited from what they view as a "period of strategic opportunity” during the initial two decades of the 21st century to develop domestically and expand China’s "comprehensive national power.” Ongoing state-led efforts, which China implements both at home and abroad and which often feature economic and diplomatic initiatives, also support China’s security and military objectives.