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5 September 2019

"This document contains links to articles and/or press agency release from multiple open sources, agencies and academia. The contents, ideas or opinions in the document do not reflect NSD-S HUB or NATO views neither conform to the organization naming convention”

 
 

READING OF THE WEEK

Keeping Up with the Future - Upgrading Forecasts of Political Instability and Geopolitical Risk

PIIE - Peterson institute for International Economics

This Policy Brief discusses the economic costs and risks associated with episodes of political instability, an important subset of geopolitical risk. It argues that firms, government agencies, and international institutions must update their forecasting and risk assessment efforts to take global factors into account, appreciating the impact of economic contractions in major economies on smaller emerging-market economies.

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NORTH AFRICA / SAHEL / SUB – SAHARA

UN Secretary General Report on Libya 

United Nations Security Council

The present report, submitted pursuant to Security Council resolution 2434 (2018), covers political, security and economic developments in Libya, provides an overview of the human rights and humanitarian situation and outlines the activities of the United Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) since the issuance of the previous report on 7 January 2019.

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Developments in Guinea-Bissau and the activities of the UNIOGBIS

United Nations Security Council

The present report is submitted pursuant to Security Council resolution 2458 (2019), by which the Council extended the mandate of the United Nations Integrated Peacebuilding Office in Guinea-Bissau (UNIOGBIS) until 28 February 2020. The report also provides an update on key political, security, human rights and socioeconomic developments in Guinea-Bissau since the report of 7 February 2019.

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Regional Growth Spillovers in Sub-Saharan Africa

IMF - International Monetary Fund

This paper documents the steady increase in intraregional trade in sub-Saharan Africa since 1980, links this rise to important growth spillovers in the region, and identifies the main source countries and those most vulnerable to the economic conditions of others. Policy implications including the need to support further continent-wide integration and the associated growth spillovers are discussed.

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MIDDLE-EAST

Basra is thirsty - Iraq’s Failure to Manage the Water Crisis

Human Rights Watch

For almost 30 years, Iraqi authorities have failed to properly manage and regulate Iraq’s water resources, depriving the people in Iraq’s southern Basra governorate - a population of roughly 4 million - of their right to safe drinking water. While the degradation of Basra’s water sources has been a persistent problem for decades, it became a full-blown crisis in the summer of 2018, when at least 118,000 people were hospitalized due to symptoms doctors identified as related to water quality.

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Clarifying Freedom of Navigation in the Gulf

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Legal ambiguities have led to disagreements over how vessels can use the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf. The seizure of two foreign oil tankers and other recent events have shown that these threats are very real and need to be addressed frankly in any future negotiations. Otherwise, diverging interpretations of the applicable laws of the sea will leave room for more misuse and potential military flare-ups.

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Iran May be the Threat but Iraq is the Prize

CSIS - Center for Strategic & International Studies

It is all too tempting to focus narrowly on the maritime crisis in the Gulf, and the potential threat to the flow of petroleum and the world’s economy. This is where the daily headlines focus, and some form of threat is all too real. “Other threats” include Yemen, Syria, and the failures of the Arab Gulf states to unite in creating an effective defense against Iran.

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TRANSNATIONAL

Measuring illicit arms and financial flows

SIPRI - Stockholm International Peace Research Institute

Target 16.4 of the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals aims to, among other things, ‘significantly reduce illicit financial and arms flows’ by 2030. Data-collection efforts have been launched for arms flows while work continues on finding an agreed definition and measure of illicit financial flows. This paper seeks to make links between these processes by providing an overview of the different stages of progress and the difficulties encountered in developing definitions and collecting data.

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