29 August 2019
"This document contains links to articles and/or press agency release from multiple open sources, agencies and academia. The contents, ideas or opinions in the document do not reflect NSD-S HUB or NATO views neither conform to the organization naming convention”
READING OF THE WEEK
The Geopolitical Implications of Future Oil Demand
The global energy economy is undergoing a rapid transition from ‘hydrocarbon molecules to electrons’: in other words, from fossil fuels to renewables and low-carbon electricity. The geopolitics of oil over the past 120 years have played a central role in international relations. Indeed some would argue that geopolitical rivalry over access to, and control of, oil supplies has been the source of much of the conflict witnessed in the 20th century. Past experience and an abundance of analysis of earlier energy transitions suggest a number of questions, all of which need to be addressed if we are to understand what is going on in the energy economy now, and what the future implications of this transition might be. This research paper tries to summarize some of the key issues arising from these questions, to explore in particular how they link together, and to generate debate.
NORTH AFRICA / SAHEL / SUB – SAHARA
The Horn of Africa (HoA) is currently experiencing a prolonged drought, largely as a result of below average precipitation from the seasonal short rains and long rains. Prevailing dry conditions across the region have led to the deterioration of farmland and pastures, loss of livestock, sharply increased food prices, and reduction of the availability of water in large areas of Somalia, Ethiopia, and Kenya. At the regional level, the number of severely food insecure people has increased to approximately 12 million, in large part as a result of the drought. Pre-existing protection, health, WASH, and shelter needs have been also been exacerbated. The humanitarian needs of the region’s growing displaced population are of particular concern.
Manufacturing in Structural Change in Africa
World Bank Group
This paper investigates the scale, causes, and timing of significant episodes of industrialization and deindustrialization in Sub-Saharan Africa. The results overwhelmingly do not support the common finding that Sub-Saharan African countries have begun to deindustrialize. Moreover, the study documents meaningful heterogeneity across Sub-Saharan Africa subregions, with the Southern region being the only subregion to have witnessed deindustrialization. However, this deindustrialization of the Southern subregion does not appear to be occurring prematurely.
Protection of displaced Libyans
This paper focuses on the situation of Libyans displaced since 2011, both within Libya itself and in Tunisia. While the legal frameworks governing their rights during displacement differ, many of the drivers of their displacement are shared, and they face similar threats to their physical, legal and material safety. The paper explores these threats, and what strategies displaced Libyans have adopted to protect themselves. It considers the local capacities and social capital displaced individuals have drawn on to mitigate threats, including in relation to family, tribal or other affiliations.
Implementation of Security Council resolution 1701 (2006) during the period from 18 February to 24 June 2019
Report of the Secretary – General, the present report provides a comprehensive assessment of the implementation in Lebanon of Security Council resolution 1701 (2006) since the previous report, dated 14 March 2019 (S/2019/237), including on the specific provisions of resolutions 2373 (2017) and 2433 (2018).
Avenues for Conflict in the Gulf: A Matrix Game Simulation
The Gulf remains one of the most strategically critical regions in the world. In this issue brief, “Avenues for Conflict in the Gulf: A Matrix Game Simulation,” game-runner reports on the results of the game – he explains how players of the game saw potential ways conflict could occur between Iran, the United States, and its regional partners; what that conflict might involve; and how regional and international players might respond.
Ideas, Networks and Jobs: Rebasing Growth in the MENA
Economic Research Forum
Oil rents are set to wane. In the MENA Region, the legacy of four decades of dependence on oil is an economy that is not generating enough opportunities for productive employment. This paper set out a policy agenda for gradual change that is cumulatively transformative.
Pivoting from Crisis to Development: Preparing for the Next Wave of UN Peace Operations Transitions
International Peace Institute
UN peace operations are going through a renewed and accelerated period of reconfiguration and drawdown. This issue brief aims to provide lessons learned from recent UN transitions, feed into, and constructively strengthen the political approaches, planning and implementation of future UN peace operations transitions through critical reflections, shared under standings and framings, and the consolidation of best practices.