16 December 2021
"This document contains links to articles and/or press agency release from multiple open sources, agencies and academia. The contents, ideas or opinions in the document do not reflect NSD-S HUB or NATO views neither conform to the organization naming convention"
READING OF THE WEEK
Assessing vulnerabilities to disaster displacement - A good practice review
International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED)
Predictive models have great potential for forecasting population displacements from climatic and other disasters. But disaster displacement risk assessment approaches often use probabilistic models and big data analysis to make global-level predictions, which have limited utility for planning and delivering local interventions that address vulnerable people's specific needs. This paper reviews current practice for analysing and assessing disaster displacement risks and presents recommendations on how to effectively integrate a detailed vulnerability analysis to improve operational decision making.
NORTH AFRICA / SAHEL / SUB – SAHARA
What next for the Juba Peace Agreement?
The Rift Valley Institute (RVI)
The 25 October coup in Sudan saw the military component of the transitional government assert itself over its civilian counterpart. In the first in a series of rapid response updates on the changing political and security situation in Sudan, we consider what impact recent events may have on the Juba Peace Agreement and, more generally, peace and security in Sudan's conflict affected regions.
How does climate exacerbate root causes of conflict in Mali? An econometric analysis
Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR)
Does food insecurity, as exacerbated by climate impacts, affect the likelihood and intensity of conflict? This research contributes to the growing debate about climate-conflict nexus by focusing on the question of whether climate is a threat multiplier using nationally representative data from Mali a country in the Sahel region of sub-Saharan Africa. The objective is to understand the role of climate change on conflict occurrence and the pathways through which this happens.
Prioritization and Sequencing of Security Council Mandates: The Case of MONUSCO
International Peace Institute (IPI)
The UN Security Council is expected to renew the mandate of the UN Organization Stabilization Mission in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUSCO) in December 2021. Discussions on MONUSCO's mandate come at a crucial moment for both the country and the mission. Recent political developments have given new momentum to efforts by the Congolese government to implement its comprehensive reform agenda, but continued political competition and persistent insecurity in the country's eastern region present serious risks.
Report of the Secretary-General on the Situation in South Sudan
United Nations Security Council (UNSC)
The present report covers developments in the Democratic Republic of the Congo from 18 September to 30 November 2021. It provides a description of progress made in the implementation of the mandate of MONUSCO since the previous report, of 17 September 2021. It provides an overview of political developments, as well as information on the Mission's pursuit of a comprehensive approach to the protection of civilians, the stabilization and strengthening of State institutions and key governance and security reforms.
Yemen - Increased civil unrest and worsening humanitarian situation in southern governorates
Assessment Capacities Project (ACAPS)
This report aims to provide information on the economic and political drivers and the social and protection impacts of the increasing civil unrest in southern governorates to explain how the situation could evolve and possible humanitarian impacts. This paper focuses on governorates nominally under the control of the Internationally Recognized Government of Yemen (IRG) but de facto under Southern Transitional Council (STC) rule.
Lebanon's Deepening Crisis: The Case for a Sustainable Aid Response
A severe economic and financial crisis is causing tremendous hardship for the people of Lebanon, a quarter of whom are refugees, forcing an unprecedented number of people to rely on humanitarian assistance. The situation requires a critical humanitarian intervention, with an understanding that a purely humanitarian intervention is unlikely to improve the long-term outcome. The crisis will almost certainly become protracted and will require complex interventions that respond to urgent needs while simultaneously building resilience and reducing vulnerabilities.
Can targeted interventions mitigate the adverse drivers of irregular migration and forced displacement?
United Nations Development Programme (UNDP)
This paper discusses how targeted interventions, either at the local or sectoral level, may shape migration and forced displacement dynamics. To assess the channels through which public policies and development initiatives potentially affect human mobility intentions and outcomes, the paper first focuses on the many—and sometimes counterintuitive—reasons why people leave their countries of origin. The paper then analyses the empirical evidence on the observed impact of targeted interventions on the propensity to move, either by choice or by force.
Protection advocacy by international NGOs in armed conflict situations - Breaking the barriers
Overseas Development Institute (ODI)
There is strong recognition that international non-governmental organisations (INGOs) have a key role to play in carrying out advocacy to promote the protection of civilians. However, this research finds that protection advocacy has not been prioritised and is largely ad hoc; that it is inhibted by high levels of risk aversion (including from leadership); and that opportunities for more effective protection advocacy are not strategically or consistently leveraged.
Climate Change and Humanitarian Action 2021
Urgence Réhabilitation Développement (URD)
This report considers the relationship between climate change and humanitarian action. It asks how climate change will affect humanitarian needs; outlines the current state of readiness to meet these needs; proposes changes that are required to improve readiness and response capacities; and suggests a series of activities that would support these changes. The main focus of the paper is the 'humanitarian system': the loose structure of organisations that provide support to people affected by 'natural disasters and other emergencies' when the emergency is 'beyond the response capacity' of a country's own government.