Weekly Security Readings 2 May 2019

May 2, 2019

"This document contains links to articles and/or press agency release from multiple open sources, agencies and academia. The contents, ideas or opinions in the document do not reflect NSD-S HUB or NATO views neither conform to the organization naming convention”

    

READING OF THE WEEK

Adressing the rise of Libya's Madkhali-Salafis

Crisis Group

Madkhali-Salafis ("Madkhalis” for short), followers of an ultra-conservative Sunni Muslim doctrine, are growing in influence across Libya since the fall of the Qadhafi regime in 2011. Present in major armed groups in both east and west, they wield considerable military clout and, as a result, political leverage over both post-2014 rival governments.

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NORTH AFRICA / SAHEL / SUB – SAHARA

Post-Bouteflika Algeria: Growing Protests, Signs of Repression 

Crisis Group

It took five weeks of street protests to end the reign of Abdelaziz Bouteflika, thwarting his fifth term as president. But now, three weeks later, a stalemate looms as protesters and security forces disagree on the pace and content of a political transition.

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Libya: Escalation of conflict

ACAPS

In April 2019 conflict between the Libyan National Army (LNA) aligned to the government in the east and the opposing UN-backed Government of National Accord (GNA), based in the northwest of Libya, escalated in and around the capital Tripoli. Clashes between the LNA, the GNC and their respective allied forces have affected 1.5 million people and displaced over 37,600. Around 90 civilian casualties have been reported, including at least 21 deaths.

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cONTROL AND cONTAIN: Mauritania's cLERICS AND THE strategy against vIOLENT eXTREMISM

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

In early May 2018, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) issued a communiqué urging its followers to attack foreigners in countries across the Sahel, including Mauritania. Nearly a year later, jihadists have not made good on this threat in Mauritania, underscoring how far the country has come from the wave of attacks it faced from 2005 to 2011.

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Weapon supplies into South Sudan's civil war

Conflict Armament Research

This report presents a comprehensive survey of the sources and mechanisms of weapon transfers into South Sudan’s civil war since the start of the conflict in December 2013. It has three core findings, all of which may be relevant for the enforcement of the international arms embargo that the United Nations Security Council imposed on South Sudan on 13 July 2018.

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MIDDLE-EAST

Israel's Armistice with Hamas, Growing Tensions with Abbas

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

As Israel and the Palestinians brace for the announced unveiling of President Trump’s "deal of the century” sometime in the coming weeks, rival factions in Ramallah and the Gaza Strip have adopted contradictory strategies for managing the repercussions.

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A Fifty-Year Reign? MbS and the Future of Saudi Arabia

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy

Crown Prince Muhammad bin Salman bin Abdulaziz al-Saud (MbS) is expected to eventually become king of Saudi Arabia, replacing his father, King Salman. But when, and under what circumstances, is hard to predict. This study examines the issues and mechanisms by which MbS may, or may not, become king.

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Iran's Long-Term Centrifuge Enrichment Plan: Providing Needed Transparency

Institute for Science and International Security

Iran’s long-term enrichment and enrichment research and development plan contains the major limitations on the numbers and types of centrifuges it can make and deploy during the first 13 years of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. For reasons that remain unclear, the plan has not been made public, even though the contents of Iran’s plan were negotiated intensively between Iran and the United States, and these limitations are fundamental to the JCPOA.

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TRANSNATIONAL

 

The role of UNESCO in preventing violent extremism

Instituto Español de Estudios Estratégicos - IEEE

This article aims to analyze the role of UNESCO in preventing violent extremism, if and when, conducive to terrorism, particularly through the organization’s cross-sectoral programs which were implemented after UNESCO’s Executive Board in its 197th session in Paris in 2015.

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Trends in world military expenditure, 2018

Stockholm International Peace Research Institute - SIPRI

One of the main challenges today for both national governments and transnational/international governance institutions is how to manage international migration, i.e. balancing the interests and needs of transit and host countries, countries of destination, and those of the migrants and their families. Safe, orderly and regular migration is recognized as beneficial to all parties involved.

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2018 Internet Crime Report

Federal Bureau of Investigation - FBI

The 2018 Internet Crime Report emphasizes the IC3’s efforts in monitoring trending scams such as Business Email Compromise (BEC), Extortion, Tech Support Fraud, and Payroll Diversion. In 2018, IC3 received a total of 351,936 complaints with losses exceeding $2.7 Billion. This past year, the most prevalent crime types reported by victims were Non-Payment/Non-Delivery, Extortion, and Personal Data Breach.
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cYBERSECURITY: cHANGING THE mODEL

Atlantic Council

There is a cybersecurity gap. Despite all efforts, adversarial cyberattacks are outrunning defender security improvements in technology, processes and education. Accordingly, this report recommends a change to new models of cybersecurity that will deliver significantly better results for the key arenas of: critical infrastructures; states, cities, and localities; the federal government; and the international sphere.
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