Alternative Global Scenarios & African Futures

The Southern Talks #1

Alternative Global Scenarios & African Futures

The West needs to differentiate between China and Russia, and resist simplistic narratives that pit a benevolent West against bad China associated with evil Russia in Africa.

Watch the inaugural Southern Talks Webinar on the topic of Alternative Global Scenarios & African Futures with our esteemed guest, Dr. Jakkie Cilliers of the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) who provided an in-depth brief on the impact of four global scenarios on Africa: a Sustainable World, a Divided World, a World at War and a Growth World. The Webinar was followed by an informative Q&A session. (1 Hour video w/ Timestamps)

Key Insights

Africa has been developing at a slower pace than the rest of the world and will continue to lag behind in all four global scenarios.
The Sustainable World scenario would be the best for Africa, as it maximizes economic growth and poverty reduction. Meanwhile, the current trajectory towards a Divided World constrains Africa’s development.
Most African countries are stable, contrary to commonly held perceptions.
It is inappropriate to compare the invasion of Ukraine with, for example, the Tigray war in Ethiopia or what is currently happening in Sudan. Africa needs to refocus and find its own solutions, which would allow the continent to acquire greater stability.
The main driver of terrorism in Africa is the actions of African Security agencies. African security force action is often the tipping point to armed action.
Irrespective of which scenario is examined, migration to EU across the “Mediterranean highway” will grow and will likely strain relations between Africa and Europe. Since the EU labour pool is decreasing while Africa’s is booming, it might become necessary to reassess the topic of migration.
The desire for self-actualisation is very evident in Africa and the desire for democratization will reassert itself over time. It would be impossible to put the ‘democracy genie’ back in the bottle.

Key Takeaways

For Africa to develop and reduce poverty, it needs China, the EU and the US. It cannot choose one above the other, even as its developmental future will increasingly be determined by rising Asia.
If the West is to retain influence and assist Africa, it must reset relations with China and lead on a relaunched multilateral system and investment-orientated growth model that benefits Africa.
The West needs to differentiate between China and Russia, and resist simplistic narratives that pit a benevolent West against bad China associated with evil Russia in Africa.

Guest Speaker

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